5 ms·

Delta’s rapid evolution and plausible defeat of the vaccine which was rolled out incredibly fast, on the back of unprecedented economic lockdowns implies to me

by gfodor 5y ago

Delta’s rapid evolution and plausible defeat of the vaccine which was rolled out incredibly fast, on the back of unprecedented economic lockdowns implies to me we didn’t stand a chance absent a global totalitarian regime just imprisoning everyone in their homes for a year by force.

mensetmanusman 5y ago
It would still spread in wildlife though, so it would have to be a forever prison.
- epistasis 5y ago
  SARS1 and MERS also lived in animals, but we were able to defeat those. SARS2 is definitely a much more difficult foe, and counterfactuals are always hard to establish, but I think we came pretty close to fighting it back. And we might still! I honestly have some hope for eventual elimination of the common cold (actually many different diseases, not one) to a large degree. Vaccine technology is advancing at a ridiculous pace these days. There is so much we don't know about immunology, but we are also learning so fast and biotech is accelerating too.
gibba999 5y ago
... or using N95-equivalent masks and mild social distancing ... What's scary is gamma through omega.
- brodouevencode 5y ago
  That’s assuming the characteristics of the virus were known upfront but they weren’t. The conflicting, even suppressed, information early on didn’t help.
  - paulmd 5y ago
    which comes back to "politicians made it worse" - the CDC knew damn well that masks worked, that's why they wanted to reserve them for medical practitioners, and put out knowingly-false statements that the science indicated that masks didn't work. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/healthcare/2020/03/02/seriously-people---stop-buying-masks-surgeon-general-says-they-wont-protect-from-coronavirus/112244966/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/healthcare/2020/03/02/se... https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-mask-advice-was-because-doctors-shortages-from-the-start-2020-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-mask-advice-was-becaus... it's not any one thing but - if Trump had told people to be patriotic and wear their masks for america, and the CDC had just told people that yes masks work but we need the medical one for the doctors so make your own (which is what they ended up doing anyway), and Trump hadn't seized PPE supplies from doctors so that JKush could auction them off for a personal profit, etc etc - the outcome would have been significantly different. but for Trump all that really mattered was "his numbers". He didn't even want to bring in a cruise ship full of dying people because that would make "his numbers" go up, even though it was already all over the west coast by that point. He knew damn well it was deadly, and that it was spreading everywhere, he told it a Pulitzer-winning journalist in as many words. Like, shame on Fauci for playing into Trump's game, let that be a lesson on what happens if you let a politician compromise your medical ethics, but... Trump had a huge part in kneecapping the response. Literally everything he did was exactly identical to the actions you'd take if you were trying to increase the spread. Lie about the spread, lie about the severity of the symptoms ("just the flu"), lie about masks and make up fake treatments like Chloroquine and Ivermectin, literally stealing supplies out of the hands of first responders... it's not hard to see that the response could have been a lot more effective without someone actively malicious at the helm. But it was hitting blue areas harder, and "those areas didn't vote for him" so he actively did everything he could to encourage the spread. it's the "stealing the PPE out of the hands of first responders to let your son-in-law auction it" that gets me, personally. Like what kind of person let alone president would even think of that.
    - musha68k 5y ago
      I remember listening to the virologists at TWiV in February 2020 talking about reports coming out of China (superspreading events, etc) and all of them pretty much were betting on the virus being airborne and aerosol transmissible back then already. All of them are US based scientists, lack of knowledge wasn’t the issue here indeed. It was really a total lack of preparation by officials so they had to keep those masks ready for at least some of the medical professionals.
musha68k 5y ago
We probably would have been able to contain the wider spread of this virus had politicians shut down all non necessary air travel immediately after WHO/China officially declared a potential pandemic incoming in January 2020. They are all culpable. All but Jacinda Ardern, very smart government that one. The need for speed: “Three days after WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 30 January 2020, New Zealand began introducing disease prevention measures and continued strengthening them in the weeks that followed.” https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/feature-stories/detail/new-zealand-takes-early-and-hard-action-to-tackle-covid-19 https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/feature-stories/deta...
- josephcsible 5y ago
  Why do you say "air travel" and not "international travel"? Before COVID got here, domestic air travel was perfectly safe, and a boat from China is just as capable of carrying COVID as a plane from China is.
  - musha68k 5y ago
    I agree especially in dense places like Europe (thinking of Italy outbreak) early border shutdown for non essential travelling would have helped in addition down the line. I’m not sure boat travel is comparable to air travel in both mass and interconnection around the globe. It would probably have also been warranted but main driver here was globalization / air travel.
- nradov 5y ago
  No that wouldn't have allowed for containing the spread. All it takes is one carrier getting through from "necessary" air travel or illegal immigration or whatever and then the exponential spread starts in a new area. Thus uncontrolled spread was inevitable in most countries. The only exceptions are a few isolated places like New Zealand which can actually control all arrivals.
  - musha68k 5y ago
    Fewer cases means tracking them is still feasible. Exponential growth can only happen after officials are overwhelmed with cases. Shutting down air travel probably would have relieved pressure enough to follow up on cases - doubling rate tells us beginning of February would still have bought us the necessary time. Beginning of March to mid of March it was game over already I agree.

by gfodor 5y ago

mensetmanusman 5y ago

It would still spread in wildlife though, so it would have to be a forever prison.

epistasis 5y ago
SARS1 and MERS also lived in animals, but we were able to defeat those. SARS2 is definitely a much more difficult foe, and counterfactuals are always hard to establish, but I think we came pretty close to fighting it back. And we might still! I honestly have some hope for eventual elimination of the common cold (actually many different diseases, not one) to a large degree. Vaccine technology is advancing at a ridiculous pace these days. There is so much we don't know about immunology, but we are also learning so fast and biotech is accelerating too.

gibba999 5y ago

... or using N95-equivalent masks and mild social distancing ... What's scary is gamma through omega.

brodouevencode 5y ago
That’s assuming the characteristics of the virus were known upfront but they weren’t. The conflicting, even suppressed, information early on didn’t help.
- paulmd 5y ago
  which comes back to "politicians made it worse" - the CDC knew damn well that masks worked, that's why they wanted to reserve them for medical practitioners, and put out knowingly-false statements that the science indicated that masks didn't work. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/healthcare/2020/03/02/seriously-people---stop-buying-masks-surgeon-general-says-they-wont-protect-from-coronavirus/112244966/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/healthcare/2020/03/02/se... https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-mask-advice-was-because-doctors-shortages-from-the-start-2020-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-mask-advice-was-becaus... it's not any one thing but - if Trump had told people to be patriotic and wear their masks for america, and the CDC had just told people that yes masks work but we need the medical one for the doctors so make your own (which is what they ended up doing anyway), and Trump hadn't seized PPE supplies from doctors so that JKush could auction them off for a personal profit, etc etc - the outcome would have been significantly different. but for Trump all that really mattered was "his numbers". He didn't even want to bring in a cruise ship full of dying people because that would make "his numbers" go up, even though it was already all over the west coast by that point. He knew damn well it was deadly, and that it was spreading everywhere, he told it a Pulitzer-winning journalist in as many words. Like, shame on Fauci for playing into Trump's game, let that be a lesson on what happens if you let a politician compromise your medical ethics, but... Trump had a huge part in kneecapping the response. Literally everything he did was exactly identical to the actions you'd take if you were trying to increase the spread. Lie about the spread, lie about the severity of the symptoms ("just the flu"), lie about masks and make up fake treatments like Chloroquine and Ivermectin, literally stealing supplies out of the hands of first responders... it's not hard to see that the response could have been a lot more effective without someone actively malicious at the helm. But it was hitting blue areas harder, and "those areas didn't vote for him" so he actively did everything he could to encourage the spread. it's the "stealing the PPE out of the hands of first responders to let your son-in-law auction it" that gets me, personally. Like what kind of person let alone president would even think of that.
  - musha68k 5y ago
    I remember listening to the virologists at TWiV in February 2020 talking about reports coming out of China (superspreading events, etc) and all of them pretty much were betting on the virus being airborne and aerosol transmissible back then already. All of them are US based scientists, lack of knowledge wasn’t the issue here indeed. It was really a total lack of preparation by officials so they had to keep those masks ready for at least some of the medical professionals.

musha68k 5y ago

We probably would have been able to contain the wider spread of this virus had politicians shut down all non necessary air travel immediately after WHO/China officially declared a potential pandemic incoming in January 2020. They are all culpable. All but Jacinda Ardern, very smart government that one. The need for speed: “Three days after WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 30 January 2020, New Zealand began introducing disease prevention measures and continued strengthening them in the weeks that followed.” https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/feature-stories/detail/new-zealand-takes-early-and-hard-action-to-tackle-covid-19 https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/feature-stories/deta...

josephcsible 5y ago
Why do you say "air travel" and not "international travel"? Before COVID got here, domestic air travel was perfectly safe, and a boat from China is just as capable of carrying COVID as a plane from China is.
- musha68k 5y ago
  I agree especially in dense places like Europe (thinking of Italy outbreak) early border shutdown for non essential travelling would have helped in addition down the line. I’m not sure boat travel is comparable to air travel in both mass and interconnection around the globe. It would probably have also been warranted but main driver here was globalization / air travel.
nradov 5y ago
No that wouldn't have allowed for containing the spread. All it takes is one carrier getting through from "necessary" air travel or illegal immigration or whatever and then the exponential spread starts in a new area. Thus uncontrolled spread was inevitable in most countries. The only exceptions are a few isolated places like New Zealand which can actually control all arrivals.
- musha68k 5y ago
  Fewer cases means tracking them is still feasible. Exponential growth can only happen after officials are overwhelmed with cases. Shutting down air travel probably would have relieved pressure enough to follow up on cases - doubling rate tells us beginning of February would still have bought us the necessary time. Beginning of March to mid of March it was game over already I agree.