7 ms·

Here's my question. Current CFR for vaccinated individuals is under 0.05%. At that point does it matter if Covid's endemic? I think the problem is we're all an

Here's my question. Current CFR for vaccinated individuals is under 0.05%. At that point does it matter if Covid's endemic? I think the problem is we're all anchored to Covid from early 2020, which was definitely a huge danger. So we hear that there's still community spread, and fly into a panic shutting everything down. But at 0.05% CFR, it's barely more dangerous than seasonal flu. If Covid in February 2020 had 0.05% would we even have done anything about it?

newsbinator 5y ago
Seasonal flu typically passes and has no lasting or permanent effects, in most cases. What % of people get Covid and are noticeably operating at less than 100% thereafter? What % are operating at less than 70% thereafter? Low CFR merely means you didn't die. It doesn't mean Covid didn't break you.
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  Long influenza absolutely does exist. At least to the same standard of self reported evidence that is being used to report long Covid. [1]https://time.com/5915616/long-flu-1918-pandemic/ https://time.com/5915616/long-flu-1918-pandemic/
- swiley 5y ago
  I've known multiple people that permanently lost their sense of taste after a bad flu.
throwawaysea 5y ago
COVID IFR was always low. The CDC planning scenarios (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...) consistently showed low IFR for those under 50 even mid 2020 in their earlier updates. However this was obfuscated by alarmist journalism and divisive politics, as well as people confusing CFR and IFR. COVID wasn’t that dangerous ever, unless you were immunocompromised or elderly, or unless your measure of danger is based on a high risk aversion. There is the possibility of rare lingering side effects. However studies show that the worst side effects, like ARDS, primarily affect those who are obese or vitamin D deficient. You could make an argument that it’s the individual’s’ responsibility to manage their own risks and vulnerability for that. Alternatively you could say that those comorbidities are common enough that they require society wide management.
breck 5y ago
Massachusetts is reporting 1% CFR for vaccinated individuals. 106/9,969, as of August 7th. https://www.mass.gov/doc/daily-covid-19-vaccine-report-august-10-2021/download https://www.mass.gov/doc/daily-covid-19-vaccine-report-augus...
- nradov 5y ago
  You have misinterpreted the data. The CDC reports 0.6% fatality rate overall since the start of the pandemic. The fatality rate for vaccinated individuals is way lower, for all variants. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... Case fatality rates are completely meaningless and useless. The vast majority of infections never get officially tested or counted as cases.
  - breck 5y ago
    I'm well calibrated on what CFR is, and I don't disagree that there are better measures. However, the parent made a comment about CFR, and so I updated them with more recent numbers, about CFR, which are 20x higher, so at the very least hints that perhaps their numbers are off.
    - dcolkitt 5y ago
      You’re right. I screwed up by using CFR. Should have said IFR. Mea culpa.
      - breck 5y ago
        Np! Lots of messiness in the data out there. I hope our data infra gets 8x-64x better in the years ahead. Maybe if we can get there this could be the last pandemic.
- alexk 5y ago
  Take a look at this article, it explains why calculating CFR this way is not accurate: https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/05/10/no-the-death-rate-for-vaccinated-people-is-not-higher-than-that-of-unvaccinated-people/ https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/05/10/no-the-death-ra... > Erin Mordecai, an assistant professor of biology at Stanford University, agreed with Riley about the miscalculation, and cautioned against the comparison. > She said it’s impossible to accurately calculate a death rate for each group — vaccinated versus vaccinated — because demographics skew the data. > “Those breakthrough cases may not be an average subset of the population, they may be a more at risk group that's more likely to have severe disease anyway,” Mordecai said. “To better understand what's going on with the relative risk, you would need to know the demographics of the underlying health conditions of the people who experienced those breakthrough cases and deaths.”

newsbinator 5y ago

Seasonal flu typically passes and has no lasting or permanent effects, in most cases. What % of people get Covid and are noticeably operating at less than 100% thereafter? What % are operating at less than 70% thereafter? Low CFR merely means you didn't die. It doesn't mean Covid didn't break you.

dcolkitt 5y ago
Long influenza absolutely does exist. At least to the same standard of self reported evidence that is being used to report long Covid. [1]https://time.com/5915616/long-flu-1918-pandemic/ https://time.com/5915616/long-flu-1918-pandemic/
swiley 5y ago
I've known multiple people that permanently lost their sense of taste after a bad flu.

throwawaysea 5y ago

COVID IFR was always low. The CDC planning scenarios (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...) consistently showed low IFR for those under 50 even mid 2020 in their earlier updates. However this was obfuscated by alarmist journalism and divisive politics, as well as people confusing CFR and IFR. COVID wasn’t that dangerous ever, unless you were immunocompromised or elderly, or unless your measure of danger is based on a high risk aversion. There is the possibility of rare lingering side effects. However studies show that the worst side effects, like ARDS, primarily affect those who are obese or vitamin D deficient. You could make an argument that it’s the individual’s’ responsibility to manage their own risks and vulnerability for that. Alternatively you could say that those comorbidities are common enough that they require society wide management.

breck 5y ago

Massachusetts is reporting 1% CFR for vaccinated individuals. 106/9,969, as of August 7th. https://www.mass.gov/doc/daily-covid-19-vaccine-report-august-10-2021/download https://www.mass.gov/doc/daily-covid-19-vaccine-report-augus...

nradov 5y ago
You have misinterpreted the data. The CDC reports 0.6% fatality rate overall since the start of the pandemic. The fatality rate for vaccinated individuals is way lower, for all variants. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... Case fatality rates are completely meaningless and useless. The vast majority of infections never get officially tested or counted as cases.
- breck 5y ago
  I'm well calibrated on what CFR is, and I don't disagree that there are better measures. However, the parent made a comment about CFR, and so I updated them with more recent numbers, about CFR, which are 20x higher, so at the very least hints that perhaps their numbers are off.
  - dcolkitt 5y ago
    You’re right. I screwed up by using CFR. Should have said IFR. Mea culpa.
    - breck 5y ago
      Np! Lots of messiness in the data out there. I hope our data infra gets 8x-64x better in the years ahead. Maybe if we can get there this could be the last pandemic.
alexk 5y ago
Take a look at this article, it explains why calculating CFR this way is not accurate: https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/05/10/no-the-death-rate-for-vaccinated-people-is-not-higher-than-that-of-unvaccinated-people/ https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/05/10/no-the-death-ra... > Erin Mordecai, an assistant professor of biology at Stanford University, agreed with Riley about the miscalculation, and cautioned against the comparison. > She said it’s impossible to accurately calculate a death rate for each group — vaccinated versus vaccinated — because demographics skew the data. > “Those breakthrough cases may not be an average subset of the population, they may be a more at risk group that's more likely to have severe disease anyway,” Mordecai said. “To better understand what's going on with the relative risk, you would need to know the demographics of the underlying health conditions of the people who experienced those breakthrough cases and deaths.”