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Ask HN: Are electric cars an example of the Jevons paradox getting paradoxical?

jasonhansel 5y ago
IMHO electric cars are more like "horseless carriages"--an attempt to shoehorn a new power source into an outdated form factor, rather than creating a new form of electrically-powered vehicle. E-bikes and e-scooters seem much more promising in that regard.
- smt88 5y ago
  How do you carry luggage, kids, pets, large quantities of groceries, and a million other things on a scooter? For most people, a scooter or e-bike is, at best, a dangerous and expensive secondary vehicle.
  - 1123581321 5y ago
    Similar thinking could apply to this problem. For example, “frunks” still look like they could contain an IC engine from the outside, but we could design electric sedans that look more like pickup trucks by re-arranging that space to give up the traditional car look. Same for high capacity seating.
    - smt88 5y ago
      The US market, at least, has been very clear that their ideal vehicle is a long-range electric Rav4. Some subset will buy an electric pickup instead. Sedans seem to be on the way out overall.
      - 1123581321 5y ago
        Which is unfortunate if we’re interested in making the most of the form factor of electric vehicles.
1123581321 5y ago
I can’t tell if the question is whether Jevons’ is in play (i.e., battery efficiency per unit of lithium greatly increasing lithium mining), or whether it’s asking if it’s unleashed a counter-paradox (e.g., electric car popularity may be causing a re-evaluation of driving needs, slowing total vehicle purchases.) There are multiple consumption curves in play.
- readonthegoapp 5y ago
  The concept still confuses me But one thing I am not confused about is that I can't shake this gut feeling that electric cars are going to doom us as fast or faster than any other 'solution' we come up with One aspect of Jevons is that electric cars make driving cheaper Which is good If you want a society that drives more E-cars would also indirectly make electricity cheaper -- thru tech innovation, thus driving up demand for electricity, this causing us to ultimately use more electricity and all fuels. The other rationale or argument against e-cars is that it is a 'tech solutionist' answer to our global warming problems That is, there is a theory that we can 'just' employ technology to fix climate collapse So, if an e-car saves the planet each time you drive it, then you had better drive it _a lot_. But this looks at the single unit measure of consumption, not the systemic / epidemiological / holistic view of what e-cars are doing to us. So, is there any more movement yet for a carbon tax since THE DISASTER REPORT came out? Maybe its still too early. But the Union of Concerned Scientists keep saying e-cars are better, cradle to grave, so that's that I guess. I just feel like we are all going to burn on hell -- aka earth -- by not thinking a bit more deeply about these things. I've heard people say, "if the rest of the oil comes up, we are all dead." I believe it. But is there any real push to stop drilling, etc? Don't worry about it -- get yourself an e-car and everything will be alright. Jevons would say that to prevent the ill effects of the paradox from kicking in, you'd have to increase the tax on electricity for every efficiency gain in generation and use that you experienced -- if you wanted to drive down electricity use. For us, practically, I would guess that would mean for every bit of e-efficiency we gained, up the taxes on / lower the subsidies for oil/gas/methane/etc, and the opposite for 'green' energy production and use.
  - Gibbon1 5y ago

IMHO electric cars are more like "horseless carriages"--an attempt to shoehorn a new power source into an outdated form factor, rather than creating a new form of electrically-powered vehicle. E-bikes and e-scooters seem much more promising in that regard.

smt88 5y ago
How do you carry luggage, kids, pets, large quantities of groceries, and a million other things on a scooter? For most people, a scooter or e-bike is, at best, a dangerous and expensive secondary vehicle.
- 1123581321 5y ago
  Similar thinking could apply to this problem. For example, “frunks” still look like they could contain an IC engine from the outside, but we could design electric sedans that look more like pickup trucks by re-arranging that space to give up the traditional car look. Same for high capacity seating.
  - smt88 5y ago
    The US market, at least, has been very clear that their ideal vehicle is a long-range electric Rav4. Some subset will buy an electric pickup instead. Sedans seem to be on the way out overall.
    - 1123581321 5y ago
      Which is unfortunate if we’re interested in making the most of the form factor of electric vehicles.

1123581321 5y ago

I can’t tell if the question is whether Jevons’ is in play (i.e., battery efficiency per unit of lithium greatly increasing lithium mining), or whether it’s asking if it’s unleashed a counter-paradox (e.g., electric car popularity may be causing a re-evaluation of driving needs, slowing total vehicle purchases.) There are multiple consumption curves in play.

readonthegoapp 5y ago
The concept still confuses me But one thing I am not confused about is that I can't shake this gut feeling that electric cars are going to doom us as fast or faster than any other 'solution' we come up with One aspect of Jevons is that electric cars make driving cheaper Which is good If you want a society that drives more E-cars would also indirectly make electricity cheaper -- thru tech innovation, thus driving up demand for electricity, this causing us to ultimately use more electricity and all fuels. The other rationale or argument against e-cars is that it is a 'tech solutionist' answer to our global warming problems That is, there is a theory that we can 'just' employ technology to fix climate collapse So, if an e-car saves the planet each time you drive it, then you had better drive it _a lot_. But this looks at the single unit measure of consumption, not the systemic / epidemiological / holistic view of what e-cars are doing to us. So, is there any more movement yet for a carbon tax since THE DISASTER REPORT came out? Maybe its still too early. But the Union of Concerned Scientists keep saying e-cars are better, cradle to grave, so that's that I guess. I just feel like we are all going to burn on hell -- aka earth -- by not thinking a bit more deeply about these things. I've heard people say, "if the rest of the oil comes up, we are all dead." I believe it. But is there any real push to stop drilling, etc? Don't worry about it -- get yourself an e-car and everything will be alright. Jevons would say that to prevent the ill effects of the paradox from kicking in, you'd have to increase the tax on electricity for every efficiency gain in generation and use that you experienced -- if you wanted to drive down electricity use. For us, practically, I would guess that would mean for every bit of e-efficiency we gained, up the taxes on / lower the subsidies for oil/gas/methane/etc, and the opposite for 'green' energy production and use.
- Gibbon1 5y ago