Older estimates are probably short by multiple orders of magnitude. We can see this in practice by looking at e.g. a self-driving Tesla vs. a mouse. Watch a f

Older estimates are probably short by multiple orders of magnitude. We can see this in practice by looking at e.g. a self-driving Tesla vs. a mouse. Watch a frightened mouse run across an uneven landscape, climbing and clambering and avoiding obstacles as it controls four independent limbs and countless small muscles in real time. A Tesla's auto-drive is nowhere near that good in spite of having only a few levers to control: accelerate, brake, left, and right. It also has far better sensors than the mouse including better eyesight, a wider field of vision, etc., and last I checked mice do not have access to a cellular network supplying them with a heads-up macro view of the local environment. They don't have "fleet-wide learning" either. The Tesla's AI uses over a hundred watts of power. The mouse's brain uses milliwatts. As I wrote this my brain was consuming between 30 and 60 watts. My laptop peaks out at 80. We are not even close to what biological neurons accomplish in raw compute, and while we are getting pretty good at training giant regression models that we call AI I am not convinced we really understand things at the algorithmic level yet either.