6 ms·

Anecdotal, how do you explain the non existing flue season (last autumn ) and the low incidences in Japan? We got higher rates during the Olympic. I live in To

Anecdotal, how do you explain the non existing flue season (last autumn ) and the low incidences in Japan? We got higher rates during the Olympic. I live in Tokyo, Japan and visit US/Europe often. The only significant difference I see is the willingness to wear masks. And there's way less space here (packed subways etc.)

timr 5y ago
Well, any rational conversation about Japan has to start with the observation that cases are at an all-time high right now: https://www.asahi.com/topics/word/%E3%82%B3%E3%83%AD%E3%83%8A%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB%E3%82%B9.html?iref=evb_1 https://www.asahi.com/topics/word/%E3%82%B3%E3%83%AD%E3%83%8... I don't think changing rates of masking can explain that change. > Anecdotal, how do you explain the non existing flue season (last autumn ) and the low incidences in Japan? We got higher rates during the Olympic. I haven't seen any data on flu during the olympics, so I can't comment on that. Covid cases, of course, were shooting up long before the first athletes even arrived in Japan (see above). To answer your question, nobody knows why flu "disappeared" during the last year. My hypothesis is a combination of two things: 1) it didn't disappear, it just spread less due to to the dramatic reduction in international travel (plus maybe closure of schools). 2) we stopped testing for flu at rates necessary to detect it. Our prior surveillance system for influenza was pretty limited, and most of it switched to Covid in 2020. In general, I think people fixate on masks far too much, because they're visible. Even in Japan, what qualifies as a mask would make Americans in the "mask compliant" cities laugh out loud. I routinely see people wearing these on Instagram and on television: https://www.superdelivery.com/product_image/812/8/8128738_1000.jpg https://www.superdelivery.com/product_image/812/8/8128738_10...
- kgarten 5y ago
  anything that interfere with droplet dispersion is better than nothing ... no? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwOwMsCc6NA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwOwMsCc6NA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAvO_QdO9eM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAvO_QdO9eM Seems basic to me ... If the droplets from me don't reach to the first person in the cinema I cannot infect them.
  - belorn 5y ago
    > If the droplets from me don't reach to the first person in the cinema I cannot infect them. It would be nice if that was true. In a small study here in Sweden they tested for covid particles in the AC system, and found particles in every single place they tested. This in a major hospital where everyone are wearing masks, and where the AC is located in the ceiling. The finding was not what the researcher was expecting, especially not in the AC system located on the roof. How much interference a mask has is determined by the leak rating, but for most surgical masks there are no protection for the finer droplets in coughs and sneezes. In a similar style, people though initially that bath houses and saunas would be safe against covid because the large droplets in the humid air would drop quickly to the ground. Later it was generally agreed here that the conclusion was incorrect and all public bath houses and saunas closed. Like with masks, humid air might be better than nothing but you really do not want to be near a person who are sick unless you got yourself an air filter and face shield.
    - kgarten 5y ago
      Yes, that's the point masks are better than nothing. They might reduce the likelihood (without much of a negative impact). That's why we should wear them. A vaccination also just reduces the likelihood you get covid. People can still get it and still spread it, even if they are vaccinated. It just reduces the likelihood and masks might do that as well ...
      - belorn 5y ago
        Yes, through masks don't reduce the likelihood of infection in the same way like vaccinations. The vaccination significant reduce infection rate for the person who takes it. Any secondary effect on other people is the result of the vaccinated person not being sick. Mask on other hand might in a limited way reduce spread if the person who wear it is sick. Masks without intake filters has zero effect on the person who wears the mask. Vaccinations also have requirements with generally 90%+ protection, while masks has anything from 0 to 90% effectiveness in filtering breath emissions. As a effective measure against covid, vaccinations are a much more effective and powerful tool. After two years and in my experience, you can't have large gatherings and expect a low risks. Neither vaccines nor mask nor the combination of both can produce enough of an defense. 2m distancing, washing hands, and keeping human gatherings inside to an absolute minimum is the only way, and then follow up with mass vaccinations. I don't think given current scientific knowledge that one can cheat that process.
- kgarten 5y ago
  ... the increase in incidences are coinciding with early travel and reducing the state of emergency related to the olympic. I work at a place that housed one of the teams, and the incidence increased around 1-2 weeks after some people arrived. NHK made a lot of efforts like the one bellow: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1247/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1247/ Check the video,I would say masks help. It's basic physics ... it's similar to the seat belt and car discussion. It's debatable how much they help (and they might have increased the number of accidents initially), yet they help. Statistics is hard.
  - timr 5y ago
    > Check the video,I would say masks help. It's basic physics Masks leak. Airflow seeks the path of least resistance. Also basic physics. People are not mannequins in a fume hood with scrap of cloth glued to their slobberhole. I don't think anyone is disputing the idea that if you could somehow hermetically seal off everyone's face holes, you'd stop the spread of a respiratory virus. But we can't, and we don't, so the question becomes: in the real world (i.e. not a mannequin in a lab), does it make a difference? All of the real-world evidence on the question is mixed, at best.
    - kgarten 5y ago
      what is the risk of wearing a mask? that you look silly? the real world evidence is mixed, yes. People are not mannequins, people die. If a simple action of mine, that might make me look silly, might save some lives (might, I don't know, yet from annexdotes countries that had no problem with wearing masks and other measures faired better) I will do what these countries did (and also wear a mask). It's rational compassion for me. You might say, I don't care (and science might prove you right or wrong after a long while), yet consider the potential cost if you are proven wrong ... Looking silly versus potentially killing people ... The evidence is not in, and it depends on what you value more ;) It's your own choice. For me I decided to wear a mask in public, do social distancing and get vaccinated. I think these are reasonable things to ask from people. You don't seem to think that.

timr 5y ago

Well, any rational conversation about Japan has to start with the observation that cases are at an all-time high right now: https://www.asahi.com/topics/word/%E3%82%B3%E3%83%AD%E3%83%8A%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB%E3%82%B9.html?iref=evb_1 https://www.asahi.com/topics/word/%E3%82%B3%E3%83%AD%E3%83%8... I don't think changing rates of masking can explain that change. > Anecdotal, how do you explain the non existing flue season (last autumn ) and the low incidences in Japan? We got higher rates during the Olympic. I haven't seen any data on flu during the olympics, so I can't comment on that. Covid cases, of course, were shooting up long before the first athletes even arrived in Japan (see above). To answer your question, nobody knows why flu "disappeared" during the last year. My hypothesis is a combination of two things: 1) it didn't disappear, it just spread less due to to the dramatic reduction in international travel (plus maybe closure of schools). 2) we stopped testing for flu at rates necessary to detect it. Our prior surveillance system for influenza was pretty limited, and most of it switched to Covid in 2020. In general, I think people fixate on masks far too much, because they're visible. Even in Japan, what qualifies as a mask would make Americans in the "mask compliant" cities laugh out loud. I routinely see people wearing these on Instagram and on television: https://www.superdelivery.com/product_image/812/8/8128738_1000.jpg https://www.superdelivery.com/product_image/812/8/8128738_10...

kgarten 5y ago
anything that interfere with droplet dispersion is better than nothing ... no? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwOwMsCc6NA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwOwMsCc6NA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAvO_QdO9eM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAvO_QdO9eM Seems basic to me ... If the droplets from me don't reach to the first person in the cinema I cannot infect them.
- belorn 5y ago
  > If the droplets from me don't reach to the first person in the cinema I cannot infect them. It would be nice if that was true. In a small study here in Sweden they tested for covid particles in the AC system, and found particles in every single place they tested. This in a major hospital where everyone are wearing masks, and where the AC is located in the ceiling. The finding was not what the researcher was expecting, especially not in the AC system located on the roof. How much interference a mask has is determined by the leak rating, but for most surgical masks there are no protection for the finer droplets in coughs and sneezes. In a similar style, people though initially that bath houses and saunas would be safe against covid because the large droplets in the humid air would drop quickly to the ground. Later it was generally agreed here that the conclusion was incorrect and all public bath houses and saunas closed. Like with masks, humid air might be better than nothing but you really do not want to be near a person who are sick unless you got yourself an air filter and face shield.
  - kgarten 5y ago
    Yes, that's the point masks are better than nothing. They might reduce the likelihood (without much of a negative impact). That's why we should wear them. A vaccination also just reduces the likelihood you get covid. People can still get it and still spread it, even if they are vaccinated. It just reduces the likelihood and masks might do that as well ...
    - belorn 5y ago
      Yes, through masks don't reduce the likelihood of infection in the same way like vaccinations. The vaccination significant reduce infection rate for the person who takes it. Any secondary effect on other people is the result of the vaccinated person not being sick. Mask on other hand might in a limited way reduce spread if the person who wear it is sick. Masks without intake filters has zero effect on the person who wears the mask. Vaccinations also have requirements with generally 90%+ protection, while masks has anything from 0 to 90% effectiveness in filtering breath emissions. As a effective measure against covid, vaccinations are a much more effective and powerful tool. After two years and in my experience, you can't have large gatherings and expect a low risks. Neither vaccines nor mask nor the combination of both can produce enough of an defense. 2m distancing, washing hands, and keeping human gatherings inside to an absolute minimum is the only way, and then follow up with mass vaccinations. I don't think given current scientific knowledge that one can cheat that process.
kgarten 5y ago
... the increase in incidences are coinciding with early travel and reducing the state of emergency related to the olympic. I work at a place that housed one of the teams, and the incidence increased around 1-2 weeks after some people arrived. NHK made a lot of efforts like the one bellow: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1247/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1247/ Check the video,I would say masks help. It's basic physics ... it's similar to the seat belt and car discussion. It's debatable how much they help (and they might have increased the number of accidents initially), yet they help. Statistics is hard.
- timr 5y ago
  > Check the video,I would say masks help. It's basic physics Masks leak. Airflow seeks the path of least resistance. Also basic physics. People are not mannequins in a fume hood with scrap of cloth glued to their slobberhole. I don't think anyone is disputing the idea that if you could somehow hermetically seal off everyone's face holes, you'd stop the spread of a respiratory virus. But we can't, and we don't, so the question becomes: in the real world (i.e. not a mannequin in a lab), does it make a difference? All of the real-world evidence on the question is mixed, at best.
  - kgarten 5y ago
    what is the risk of wearing a mask? that you look silly? the real world evidence is mixed, yes. People are not mannequins, people die. If a simple action of mine, that might make me look silly, might save some lives (might, I don't know, yet from annexdotes countries that had no problem with wearing masks and other measures faired better) I will do what these countries did (and also wear a mask). It's rational compassion for me. You might say, I don't care (and science might prove you right or wrong after a long while), yet consider the potential cost if you are proven wrong ... Looking silly versus potentially killing people ... The evidence is not in, and it depends on what you value more ;) It's your own choice. For me I decided to wear a mask in public, do social distancing and get vaccinated. I think these are reasonable things to ask from people. You don't seem to think that.