5 ms·

Not that this is entirely wrong in principle, but it sounds like you got into the market for a house right around 2009. "Happen to enter the market at the exact

Not that this is entirely wrong in principle, but it sounds like you got into the market for a house right around 2009. "Happen to enter the market at the exact bottom of a historic crash" isn't exactly a strategy. It's just luck.

UncleMeat 5y ago
I think it will be fascinating to watch the FIRE movement and the broader trading communities through the next crash. It is easy to feel like a genius when the market is going up 30% in a year.
- voidfunc 5y ago
  Im not sure what you expect to see with FIRE? Ill just keep investing through the down-cycle. Dollar cost averaging baby!
  - UncleMeat 5y ago
    I expect a fair number of people who think they've got the guts for this to panic. But more I expect the proliferation of advice to shrink.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    There are always people on the margin. Those who barely get by with FIRE will be the ones to go.
- EEREPRESENT 5y ago
  why? fire participants are disciplined so they will just invest as usual. what do u expect to see?
CountDrewku 5y ago
Oh you mean the same time I graduated into a shitty job market with thousands in college loans? No, I made smart decisions about purchasing a house in a good low col area and fixed it up. Honestly, this whole idea that anyone who's achieved some success is just down to luck is pretty disheartening. Do you think this is a good approach to improving your life? I don't see any advantage to thinking this way.
- nonameiguess 5y ago
  I think it's a perfectly fine approach to life to acknowledge the role played by luck. I don't pretend I'm completely in control and all my success is solely due to my superior grit and intellect (and, of course, even having those traits at all is still just luck). Nonetheless, I've done perfectly fine. My life has improved fairly consistently for about 20 years to the point it is better than I ever reasonably expected it would ever be. So no, I don't think you need to buy into myths to improve your life. By all means, make the smartest moves you can with the hand you're dealt, but you have absolutely no control over what hand you're dealt. If you got lucky, good for you. Plenty of others got lucky and squandered it. I'm not saying don't feel proud of yourself. But don't forget the many people who never even got the chance. You're not better than them and neither am I.
  - amanaplanacanal 5y ago
    Oh boy this so much! I'm fully aware of how lucky I've been. Grit and intellect are pretty much down to luck in choosing your parents. It's so easy and so natural to look down on other people. Everybody does it, and the best we can do is try to fight against it by having some humility.
  - nate_meurer 5y ago
    > superior grit and intellect (and, of course, even having those traits at all is still just luck). I don't think this is true. Sure, it's trivially true that we don't earn the traits we're born with in any way. But it should be equally obvious that people can and do cultivate these same traits deliberately throughout life. People cultivate grit (i.e., discipline, persistence, courage, etc), and everyone has to fulfill whatever innate intellect they were given with knowledge and experience, which don't come for free. There's certainly a lot of luck involved all along the way, but labelling it all "just luck" is a pretty broad stroke is it not? > You're not better than them and neither am I. "Better" is a heavily loaded term. I suspect you're angling for a "worthy of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" sort of meaning, which is dangerously close to a strawman. But if "better" is given a more specific and practical "better steward of their resources" meaning, then I assure you there are lots people better than me.
OldHand2018 5y ago
> It's just luck. Well sure, but perhaps also it's just survivorship bias. It sure seems like there is always somebody that just got lucky, no matter what is going on. 10 years from now, there will be a group of people that "just got lucky" with something they did right now. I guess what I'm saying is that the right attitude is to decide that no matter how terrible everything is and no matter how stacked against you the world is, there is an opportunity - somewhere, somehow.

UncleMeat 5y ago

I think it will be fascinating to watch the FIRE movement and the broader trading communities through the next crash. It is easy to feel like a genius when the market is going up 30% in a year.

voidfunc 5y ago
Im not sure what you expect to see with FIRE? Ill just keep investing through the down-cycle. Dollar cost averaging baby!
- UncleMeat 5y ago
  I expect a fair number of people who think they've got the guts for this to panic. But more I expect the proliferation of advice to shrink.
- imtringued 5y ago
  There are always people on the margin. Those who barely get by with FIRE will be the ones to go.
EEREPRESENT 5y ago
why? fire participants are disciplined so they will just invest as usual. what do u expect to see?

CountDrewku 5y ago

Oh you mean the same time I graduated into a shitty job market with thousands in college loans? No, I made smart decisions about purchasing a house in a good low col area and fixed it up. Honestly, this whole idea that anyone who's achieved some success is just down to luck is pretty disheartening. Do you think this is a good approach to improving your life? I don't see any advantage to thinking this way.

nonameiguess 5y ago
I think it's a perfectly fine approach to life to acknowledge the role played by luck. I don't pretend I'm completely in control and all my success is solely due to my superior grit and intellect (and, of course, even having those traits at all is still just luck). Nonetheless, I've done perfectly fine. My life has improved fairly consistently for about 20 years to the point it is better than I ever reasonably expected it would ever be. So no, I don't think you need to buy into myths to improve your life. By all means, make the smartest moves you can with the hand you're dealt, but you have absolutely no control over what hand you're dealt. If you got lucky, good for you. Plenty of others got lucky and squandered it. I'm not saying don't feel proud of yourself. But don't forget the many people who never even got the chance. You're not better than them and neither am I.
- amanaplanacanal 5y ago
  Oh boy this so much! I'm fully aware of how lucky I've been. Grit and intellect are pretty much down to luck in choosing your parents. It's so easy and so natural to look down on other people. Everybody does it, and the best we can do is try to fight against it by having some humility.
- nate_meurer 5y ago
  > superior grit and intellect (and, of course, even having those traits at all is still just luck). I don't think this is true. Sure, it's trivially true that we don't earn the traits we're born with in any way. But it should be equally obvious that people can and do cultivate these same traits deliberately throughout life. People cultivate grit (i.e., discipline, persistence, courage, etc), and everyone has to fulfill whatever innate intellect they were given with knowledge and experience, which don't come for free. There's certainly a lot of luck involved all along the way, but labelling it all "just luck" is a pretty broad stroke is it not? > You're not better than them and neither am I. "Better" is a heavily loaded term. I suspect you're angling for a "worthy of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" sort of meaning, which is dangerously close to a strawman. But if "better" is given a more specific and practical "better steward of their resources" meaning, then I assure you there are lots people better than me.

OldHand2018 5y ago

> It's just luck. Well sure, but perhaps also it's just survivorship bias. It sure seems like there is always somebody that just got lucky, no matter what is going on. 10 years from now, there will be a group of people that "just got lucky" with something they did right now. I guess what I'm saying is that the right attitude is to decide that no matter how terrible everything is and no matter how stacked against you the world is, there is an opportunity - somewhere, somehow.