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Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof o

Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof of the world?

georgeecollins 5y ago
Don't think about it as an invasion, think about it as a front. There have been historical times when the US-- essentially strategically secure-- has had a front to fight with Canada (1812) or Mexico (1849). Most recently, the civil war in Mexico (1917) had a large number of US troops fighting along the border right before the start of the US entry in the First World War. (the Germans realized this was the strategic weakness of the US, which prompted the Zimmerman telegram.) In a similar way China can be dragged down by wars in Vietnam, Burma, Korea, or India / Himalayas. Will it lose? No. But like the US and Mexico, a war at your border can make projection of power infeasible.
- kasperni 5y ago
  What I was trying to say was that the author completely misses the point about crackdowns in Tibet and Xinjiang. This has nothing to do with external threats to the Han population. And everything to do with internal threats to the integrity of the empire instead. Runaway provinces must be kept in order. That's how it has been for centuries.
  - babesh 5y ago
    I am not expert but I read that there were Ughyur uprisings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_conflict Also, I read that the US/China competition includes a US containment strategy. https://cejiss.org/the-united-states-china-containment-strategy-and-the-south-china-sea-dispute https://cejiss.org/the-united-states-china-containment-strat...
    - kwere 5y ago
      > I am not expert but I read that there were Ughyur uprisings. They must have said that pork is haram!
- rat87 5y ago
  The US didn't have a standing army in the war of 1812, there's no comparison to today Germany didn't realize anything. WW1 Germany were extremely foolish wrt the Zimmermann telegram. Mexico had absolutely no hope of seriously fighting America at that point and the only thing the Telegram did or could do was to bring America into the war against Germany. And then when British spies leaked it Germany admitted it and America declared war on Germany
rich_sasha 5y ago
These matter, I think. WWI started in large part because European empire nations all had a game of chess in mind, about who could gain what (and who could lose o it FOMO style) if there’s a conflict without them in it. Never mind they castrated themselves in the process and set up for another disaster 20 years on. In any bureaucracy there’s a kernel that focuses on O(50y) strategies and I find it likely this is how they see the world. Whether that’s genius or self-propelling war mongering, I’m not sure. The thing is, if India were to start threatening China in 20 years time, the time to prepare for it is now. Responding to threats is best done before they appear. You cannot magic out firefighters and their infrastructure as a fire starts. And if anyone is long-term-focused, surely that’s China.
calyth2018 5y ago
The only thing that makes sense is a view through geography. Author neglects to think what might happen with climate change. Let's assume that the rising sea levels don't necessarily push back the coast, but it could start salinating the land and cause a lot of issues with food supply.

Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof of the world?

georgeecollins 5y ago

Don't think about it as an invasion, think about it as a front. There have been historical times when the US-- essentially strategically secure-- has had a front to fight with Canada (1812) or Mexico (1849). Most recently, the civil war in Mexico (1917) had a large number of US troops fighting along the border right before the start of the US entry in the First World War. (the Germans realized this was the strategic weakness of the US, which prompted the Zimmerman telegram.) In a similar way China can be dragged down by wars in Vietnam, Burma, Korea, or India / Himalayas. Will it lose? No. But like the US and Mexico, a war at your border can make projection of power infeasible.

kasperni 5y ago
What I was trying to say was that the author completely misses the point about crackdowns in Tibet and Xinjiang. This has nothing to do with external threats to the Han population. And everything to do with internal threats to the integrity of the empire instead. Runaway provinces must be kept in order. That's how it has been for centuries.
- babesh 5y ago
  I am not expert but I read that there were Ughyur uprisings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_conflict Also, I read that the US/China competition includes a US containment strategy. https://cejiss.org/the-united-states-china-containment-strategy-and-the-south-china-sea-dispute https://cejiss.org/the-united-states-china-containment-strat...
  - kwere 5y ago
    > I am not expert but I read that there were Ughyur uprisings. They must have said that pork is haram!
rat87 5y ago
The US didn't have a standing army in the war of 1812, there's no comparison to today Germany didn't realize anything. WW1 Germany were extremely foolish wrt the Zimmermann telegram. Mexico had absolutely no hope of seriously fighting America at that point and the only thing the Telegram did or could do was to bring America into the war against Germany. And then when British spies leaked it Germany admitted it and America declared war on Germany

rich_sasha 5y ago

These matter, I think. WWI started in large part because European empire nations all had a game of chess in mind, about who could gain what (and who could lose o it FOMO style) if there’s a conflict without them in it. Never mind they castrated themselves in the process and set up for another disaster 20 years on. In any bureaucracy there’s a kernel that focuses on O(50y) strategies and I find it likely this is how they see the world. Whether that’s genius or self-propelling war mongering, I’m not sure. The thing is, if India were to start threatening China in 20 years time, the time to prepare for it is now. Responding to threats is best done before they appear. You cannot magic out firefighters and their infrastructure as a fire starts. And if anyone is long-term-focused, surely that’s China.

calyth2018 5y ago

The only thing that makes sense is a view through geography. Author neglects to think what might happen with climate change. Let's assume that the rising sea levels don't necessarily push back the coast, but it could start salinating the land and cause a lot of issues with food supply.