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Because we use inflation (and unemployment) numbers as bellwethers and markers for policy, we have changed how they are calculated over time. If you look at the
by snarf21 5y ago
Because we use inflation (and unemployment) numbers as bellwethers and markers for policy, we have changed how they are calculated over time. If you look at the formulas used in the 70s, 80s and now you'll find that they are not the same.
As Goodhart's Law says, “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” Note: we do this with all kinds of statistics, just look at police reporting on felonies. Too many? Just charge misdemeanors for the least violent crimes and all of a sudden you have reduced violent felonies by 20% in just one year!!!!
We've been having inflation for years but we just don't measure it in a way to see it. Take average household spend on healthcare, education, housing, food in 2010 and in 2020 and there will it is pretty hard to argue inflation wasn't already here. Now, we've dumped trillions to prop up the markets and inflation is starting to "officially" appear despite the new calculations. What's worse, is that the trillions aren't even being used to increase GDP or build infrastructure for future growth. It is only gone to create even bigger asset bubbles in housing and equities. I don't think the Fed can unroll this money and actually I think they have decided that they won't even bother to try. We are living in a monetary experiment and we'll find out in the next few years if MMT can really save us or not.
- imtringued 5y agoWe are going to have another 10 boring years with low inflation and low interest rates because people are getting old and inequality going up. The only people who think that inflation is higher than the official statistics don't know the impact of inflation. Most of the time inflation is reality giving you a punch in the face. If inflation really happened between 2010 and 2020 where is the punch? If anything I feel we spent that time running away from reality and no, the problem isn't whatever the central bank is doing because it is acting as the last line of defense. Most of the time it is responding to political failures, which is why central banks are independent in the first place. If the central bank were democratized it would be unable to perform its function as people will abuse it to refuse reality even more. Just read up on what Erdogan did.
- amrcnimgrnt 5y ago"If inflation really happened between 2010 and 2020 where is the punch? " Housing Health care College Decreased quality of goods (aka, fake stuff on Amazon)