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It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to bec

It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.

giantg2 5y ago
So far 55% or so have been fully vaccinated. 83 million, or 25% of the population, is estimated by the CDC to have been infected. I would guess we are getting fairly close to 70%, but it's hard to say what the overlap between those two numbers is. If it's really as contagious as they say, then it's only a matter of time before we hit 80%. The issue will then be the distribution by location and how long the protection lasts.
akiselev 5y ago
Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.
- threatofrain 5y ago
  The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early on.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    They are talking about mandatory vaccinations for some schools.
    - threatofrain 5y ago
      Florida is threatening defunding schools that seek to require masks. Just masks. COVID vaccination has become a political expression of personal freedom.
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    I don't know, at the rate we're going it feels like they'll require 5 year olds to have the Covid vaccines to attend public school after finishing a five month, phase I trial in 3,000 kids.
    - paulmd 5y ago
      The real answer is that schools probably should not open at all. They are basically ideal breeding grounds for the virus - kids are gross and spread everything to begin with, plus you have 30 kids sitting in close proximity, communal lunch-halls, crowded hallways, overcrowded bus transportation... and in higher grades you shuffle the contact groups an additional 7x per day as people change classes. It is literally the absolute ideal environment that you would design if you wanted to breed the disease - big groups, shuffled frequently, with no social distancing and kids who probably couldn't execute social distancing anyway. The short answer is that schools probably should not be open at all. Even with the vaccine, you are talking about a disease that (even in mild cases) is known to cause subtle long-term damage to organs, it's really not a good idea to tempt fate in a growing kid, particularly with the potential for multiple recurring infections over time from different strains. If you did want to re-open schools safely, you would have to require vaccinations, you would also have to restructure significant parts of the school "experience" - like having classes and bus transportation be significantly smaller and more spaced out, having class groups stay fixed and having teachers move between class groups rather than vice versa, etc. And all of that would be far more expensive - we would need more teachers, more classrooms, more busses, etc. The reality is we're just throwing kids under the bus to die, because it would be expensive and inconvenient to do it right, and we can't not reopen schools because a lot of people depend on it as daycare and because a lot of people have decided we're "back to normal" regardless of what happens with future variants. Just like people have decided that we're done with masks and they're not putting them back on ever again, regardless of what the CDC says. Open for business baby.
      - AndrewBissell 5y ago
        > The reality is we're just throwing kids under the bus to die What the hell are you talking about? The CDC has said children are at less risk of death from Covid-19 than they are from influenza. Were we "throwing them under the bus to die" when we opened schools in every year before 2020 without masks and "stay apart from your biohazard friends" social distancing? Also, "Study shows schools do not spread Covid": https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/75136706-f171-11eb-8f01-2c678acbb979 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/75136706-f171-11eb-8f01-2... > we can't not reopen schools because a lot of people depend on it as daycare and because a lot of people have decided we're "back to normal" regardless of what happens with future variants No, it's because an education is a fundamental human right which is being denied to children, and the policy of closing schools has caused immense damage to their learning and mental health for practically zero benefit in reducing the harm caused by the virus.
- Animats 5y ago
  The delta variant of coronavirus seems to have a R0 in the 8-10 range. That's why the case counts are rising so fast now.

giantg2 5y ago

So far 55% or so have been fully vaccinated. 83 million, or 25% of the population, is estimated by the CDC to have been infected. I would guess we are getting fairly close to 70%, but it's hard to say what the overlap between those two numbers is. If it's really as contagious as they say, then it's only a matter of time before we hit 80%. The issue will then be the distribution by location and how long the protection lasts.

akiselev 5y ago

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.

threatofrain 5y ago
The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early on.
- giantg2 5y ago
  They are talking about mandatory vaccinations for some schools.
  - threatofrain 5y ago
    Florida is threatening defunding schools that seek to require masks. Just masks. COVID vaccination has become a political expression of personal freedom.
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  I don't know, at the rate we're going it feels like they'll require 5 year olds to have the Covid vaccines to attend public school after finishing a five month, phase I trial in 3,000 kids.
  - paulmd 5y ago
    The real answer is that schools probably should not open at all. They are basically ideal breeding grounds for the virus - kids are gross and spread everything to begin with, plus you have 30 kids sitting in close proximity, communal lunch-halls, crowded hallways, overcrowded bus transportation... and in higher grades you shuffle the contact groups an additional 7x per day as people change classes. It is literally the absolute ideal environment that you would design if you wanted to breed the disease - big groups, shuffled frequently, with no social distancing and kids who probably couldn't execute social distancing anyway. The short answer is that schools probably should not be open at all. Even with the vaccine, you are talking about a disease that (even in mild cases) is known to cause subtle long-term damage to organs, it's really not a good idea to tempt fate in a growing kid, particularly with the potential for multiple recurring infections over time from different strains. If you did want to re-open schools safely, you would have to require vaccinations, you would also have to restructure significant parts of the school "experience" - like having classes and bus transportation be significantly smaller and more spaced out, having class groups stay fixed and having teachers move between class groups rather than vice versa, etc. And all of that would be far more expensive - we would need more teachers, more classrooms, more busses, etc. The reality is we're just throwing kids under the bus to die, because it would be expensive and inconvenient to do it right, and we can't not reopen schools because a lot of people depend on it as daycare and because a lot of people have decided we're "back to normal" regardless of what happens with future variants. Just like people have decided that we're done with masks and they're not putting them back on ever again, regardless of what the CDC says. Open for business baby.
    - AndrewBissell 5y ago
      > The reality is we're just throwing kids under the bus to die What the hell are you talking about? The CDC has said children are at less risk of death from Covid-19 than they are from influenza. Were we "throwing them under the bus to die" when we opened schools in every year before 2020 without masks and "stay apart from your biohazard friends" social distancing? Also, "Study shows schools do not spread Covid": https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/75136706-f171-11eb-8f01-2c678acbb979 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/75136706-f171-11eb-8f01-2... > we can't not reopen schools because a lot of people depend on it as daycare and because a lot of people have decided we're "back to normal" regardless of what happens with future variants No, it's because an education is a fundamental human right which is being denied to children, and the policy of closing schools has caused immense damage to their learning and mental health for practically zero benefit in reducing the harm caused by the virus.
Animats 5y ago
The delta variant of coronavirus seems to have a R0 in the 8-10 range. That's why the case counts are rising so fast now.