4 ms·

As if it wasn't obvious the mass isolation and sedentarism will have massive mental and health impact.

blub 5y ago
Health care impact because of shifting infection wave timeframes. The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does.
- xunn0026 5y ago
  Did you have a cold the past year? I did not. All because of the social distancing. Turns out if you personally avoid people and crowds (social distancing) and if indoor places are closed there's fewer situations to get any virus. Unless the virus comes on Amazon packages or through the air in the back yard. Kids have been massively more sheltered too. Either by parents or because schools were literally closed. It's a good thing that we are reopening the society by Autumn, so we can have a nice wave of colds, flu and COVID by people that didn't catch anything in 1 year. (As in, I worry a bit about what Autumn will bring). Bubble boy meets bubble society.
  - blub 5y ago
    I didn't back in 2020 during the most strict lockdowns, but afterwards sure, plenty of colds. And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) For the record, there was nothing special about those after-lockdown-colds compared to regular colds. Based on my own experience and that of other parents I know, I would say that we've sheltered our kids, but as soon as school was back on it was game over.
    - xunn0026 5y ago
      > And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) LOL
- refurb 5y ago
  Was reading a healthcare forum where doctors were giving multiple examples of people with advanced cancer that would have been curable 1 year ago when the patient first noticed it, but now requires major intervention with an uncertain outcome.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    That happened pre-pandemic, too. Some people hate going to the doctor, others are trying to avoid paying their deductible for what turns out to be something benign, etc. Confirmation bias may also be at play. It'll be a while before we know the impact in a data-driven rather than anecdote-driven fashion.
    - krona 5y ago
      statistical breakdown from the British Medical Association: https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid_web-pdf.pdf https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid... I'm sure a qualified actuary will be able to take this data along with models of expected outcomes and give you (well not you, but an insurance company) a fairly good idea of the consequences in terms of lives lost over the next 5 years or so.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        That link backs up my statement: it's a bunch of "we estimate" statements and attempts to model the future based on a survey of ~2k physicians. A qualified actuary will likely admit to uncertainty on something unprecedented like the first pandemic in the modern era.
    - refurb 5y ago
      That’s a total cop out to say it happen pre-pandemic. We’re talking about people actively seeking care being turned away. Not sure you need much data when countries like Canada were canceling all elective surgeries during their Covid waves. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-elective-surgery-icu-patients-1.5980755 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hosp... This happened in most countries that were hit hard. We’re talking going from a packed schedule of preventative screenings and elective surgeries to zero. The backlog will take years to clear.
- dna_polymerase 5y ago
  > The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does. Even if you know nothing about medicine, just from the fact that the COVID vaccines need booster shots you should be able to induce that the immune system in fact has a time component to it, and therefor any timeframe has an impact on it's ability. With a little more knowledge on the topic you can see that a single year of basically blocking everyhing off from your immune system makes it less powerful. The flu season will be devastating, and the long term effects of blocking kids from training their immune systems will be even worse.
  - RandomLensman 5y ago
    I don't think a booster shot is a good example, lots of other vaccinations are administered in 3 shots. On others, the current view is that one is enough for life. If there is really a degradation in immune capability, is there any evidence of that from other vaccinations not working as well as in the past? How far the immune system is actually depressed from the lockdowns etc., we will find out. Could also be the other way around, i.e. overreaction. What I have not observed since things are getting back to normal in my part of Europe is that everyone gets a cold etc. as soon as they meet more people.
  - blub 5y ago
    Your premise that everything was "blocked off" from people's immune systems is wrong and the whole argument falls apart. This is incidentally also addressed explicitly in the article.
smorgusofborg 5y ago
We've lived millions of years in the lifestyle of the lockdown (many parts of the world still do) and for a few freakish millennia, some parts of society sort of managed in the style being resumed..
- throwaways885 5y ago
  We lived in tribes, not pseudo-prison cells with just yourself or your family at best.
  - ubercore 5y ago
    How large do you think those tribes were?
    - throwaways885 5y ago
      Probably more than 2.4 people, which is the average household size in the UK, for example.
      - ubercore 5y ago
        Probably, and I haven't experienced lockdown in the UK, but in the US and Norway, even people being quite careful see more than just their immediate household.
        teamonkey 5y ago
        It's been pretty loose in the UK. Even during the strictest lockdown, which only lasted a couple of weeks, you could still go out for exercise, go to shops for "essentials" (the definition was liberal). People went to exercise and just happened to be walking 2 metres away and in the same direction as their friends. Hardly house arrest.
    - tokai 5y ago
      1727.9 ± 620.6 persons. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5756541/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5756541/
tambourine_man 5y ago
All much milder than post covid complications or death. None put as much pressure on public health systems.
- nradov 5y ago
  For most people the social isolation is a greater risk than COVID-19.
  - selfsimilar 5y ago
    I’d love to see any statistics to support that claim. Anecdotally I disagree with that risk assessment but I don’t have any hard data on the risk(s) associated with social isolation.
  - Loughla 5y ago
    "Most" is a very strong word to use in this situation. How do you back that up? Demographic data? Psychological profiles of those demographics? Or just because you want it to be true?
  - tambourine_man 5y ago
    A country severely affected by covid like Brazil has seen its population decline for the first time ever since the Portuguese set foot. People were asphyxiating to death in Manaus because hospitals couldn't meet the oxygen tanks' demand with patients coming in hordes. It’s that bad. The amount of people that committed suicide due to depression induced by isolation is several orders of magnitude less. It’s sad and scary that we still have to have this conversations in well educated forums like HN one and a half years in this pandemic.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

blub 5y ago

Health care impact because of shifting infection wave timeframes. The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does.

xunn0026 5y ago
Did you have a cold the past year? I did not. All because of the social distancing. Turns out if you personally avoid people and crowds (social distancing) and if indoor places are closed there's fewer situations to get any virus. Unless the virus comes on Amazon packages or through the air in the back yard. Kids have been massively more sheltered too. Either by parents or because schools were literally closed. It's a good thing that we are reopening the society by Autumn, so we can have a nice wave of colds, flu and COVID by people that didn't catch anything in 1 year. (As in, I worry a bit about what Autumn will bring). Bubble boy meets bubble society.
- blub 5y ago
  I didn't back in 2020 during the most strict lockdowns, but afterwards sure, plenty of colds. And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) For the record, there was nothing special about those after-lockdown-colds compared to regular colds. Based on my own experience and that of other parents I know, I would say that we've sheltered our kids, but as soon as school was back on it was game over.
  - xunn0026 5y ago
    > And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) LOL
refurb 5y ago
Was reading a healthcare forum where doctors were giving multiple examples of people with advanced cancer that would have been curable 1 year ago when the patient first noticed it, but now requires major intervention with an uncertain outcome.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  That happened pre-pandemic, too. Some people hate going to the doctor, others are trying to avoid paying their deductible for what turns out to be something benign, etc. Confirmation bias may also be at play. It'll be a while before we know the impact in a data-driven rather than anecdote-driven fashion.
  - krona 5y ago
    statistical breakdown from the British Medical Association: https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid_web-pdf.pdf https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid... I'm sure a qualified actuary will be able to take this data along with models of expected outcomes and give you (well not you, but an insurance company) a fairly good idea of the consequences in terms of lives lost over the next 5 years or so.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      That link backs up my statement: it's a bunch of "we estimate" statements and attempts to model the future based on a survey of ~2k physicians. A qualified actuary will likely admit to uncertainty on something unprecedented like the first pandemic in the modern era.
  - refurb 5y ago
    That’s a total cop out to say it happen pre-pandemic. We’re talking about people actively seeking care being turned away. Not sure you need much data when countries like Canada were canceling all elective surgeries during their Covid waves. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-elective-surgery-icu-patients-1.5980755 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hosp... This happened in most countries that were hit hard. We’re talking going from a packed schedule of preventative screenings and elective surgeries to zero. The backlog will take years to clear.
dna_polymerase 5y ago
> The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does. Even if you know nothing about medicine, just from the fact that the COVID vaccines need booster shots you should be able to induce that the immune system in fact has a time component to it, and therefor any timeframe has an impact on it's ability. With a little more knowledge on the topic you can see that a single year of basically blocking everyhing off from your immune system makes it less powerful. The flu season will be devastating, and the long term effects of blocking kids from training their immune systems will be even worse.
- RandomLensman 5y ago
  I don't think a booster shot is a good example, lots of other vaccinations are administered in 3 shots. On others, the current view is that one is enough for life. If there is really a degradation in immune capability, is there any evidence of that from other vaccinations not working as well as in the past? How far the immune system is actually depressed from the lockdowns etc., we will find out. Could also be the other way around, i.e. overreaction. What I have not observed since things are getting back to normal in my part of Europe is that everyone gets a cold etc. as soon as they meet more people.
- blub 5y ago
  Your premise that everything was "blocked off" from people's immune systems is wrong and the whole argument falls apart. This is incidentally also addressed explicitly in the article.

smorgusofborg 5y ago

We've lived millions of years in the lifestyle of the lockdown (many parts of the world still do) and for a few freakish millennia, some parts of society sort of managed in the style being resumed..

throwaways885 5y ago
We lived in tribes, not pseudo-prison cells with just yourself or your family at best.
- ubercore 5y ago
  How large do you think those tribes were?
  - throwaways885 5y ago
    Probably more than 2.4 people, which is the average household size in the UK, for example.
    - ubercore 5y ago
      Probably, and I haven't experienced lockdown in the UK, but in the US and Norway, even people being quite careful see more than just their immediate household.
      - teamonkey 5y ago
        It's been pretty loose in the UK. Even during the strictest lockdown, which only lasted a couple of weeks, you could still go out for exercise, go to shops for "essentials" (the definition was liberal). People went to exercise and just happened to be walking 2 metres away and in the same direction as their friends. Hardly house arrest.
  - tokai 5y ago
    1727.9 ± 620.6 persons. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5756541/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5756541/

tambourine_man 5y ago

All much milder than post covid complications or death. None put as much pressure on public health systems.

nradov 5y ago
For most people the social isolation is a greater risk than COVID-19.
- selfsimilar 5y ago
  I’d love to see any statistics to support that claim. Anecdotally I disagree with that risk assessment but I don’t have any hard data on the risk(s) associated with social isolation.
- Loughla 5y ago
  "Most" is a very strong word to use in this situation. How do you back that up? Demographic data? Psychological profiles of those demographics? Or just because you want it to be true?
- tambourine_man 5y ago
  A country severely affected by covid like Brazil has seen its population decline for the first time ever since the Portuguese set foot. People were asphyxiating to death in Manaus because hospitals couldn't meet the oxygen tanks' demand with patients coming in hordes. It’s that bad. The amount of people that committed suicide due to depression induced by isolation is several orders of magnitude less. It’s sad and scary that we still have to have this conversations in well educated forums like HN one and a half years in this pandemic.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]