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This has been building for at least 5 years, but it's obvious now that the West needs to start acting. We didn't win the cold war by pretending it wasn't going

This has been building for at least 5 years, but it's obvious now that the West needs to start acting. We didn't win the cold war by pretending it wasn't going on and China has certain advantages that we don't have. We have to coordinate on two separate levels that they do not. First, at the state level, where the game theory goes against us because it's typically rival factions (Democrats vs Republicans) and second at the alliance level where we need to coordinate between only semi-aligned nations. We have some advantages, like our lead in technology, but few of them are natural advantages. So I actually think we're the long term losers of the second cold war. Especially if we try to ignore it as it starts.

BitwiseFool 5y ago
>"like our lead in technology" True, and I don't know how much longer this can last. As an example, the rise of TikTok has certainly taken me by surprise. I've always seen world-class social media apps as a Silicon-Valley thing, something that only the US managed to produce. But now, not so much.
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  TikTok is Vine 2.0, surprised it didn’t happen in the west as well.
  - BitwiseFool 5y ago
    I still don't understand why Vine went away. It seemed to be doing so well.
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      6s was the wrong choice for max length.
      - worker767424 5y ago
        A surprising number of consumer startups are the same as another product, but with different business logic. Just look at Bumble.
    - nemothekid 5y ago
      >I still don't understand why Vine went away. Twitter/Vine did not want to pay creators. I don't know the history on why YouTube/Twitch/TikTok figured it out and why Snap/Twitter/FB drag their feet with it. I remember there was a turning point where many large creators on Vine decided to move to Instagram/YouTube because it was easier to monetize.
- worker767424 5y ago
  TikTok's only interesting technology is its recommendation system, which I doubt is that different or innovative compared to Netflix or Youtube. Maybe they're better at moderation because it makes censorship easier?
  - OnlineGladiator 5y ago
    > TikTok's only interesting technology is its recommendation system Come on, that's sorta like saying "Google's only interesting technology is its search algorithm" (I'm being a little loose here, but going back 20 years I'd say that's true). When it's the defining feature of your product, it's the only thing that matters and why it's the leader. Unless somebody can mimic TikTok's success, dismissing them seems arrogant. > which I doubt is that different or innovative compared to Netflix or Youtube Speaking from personal experience, Youtube has a horrible recommendation system, and Netflix is somewhere between okay and good.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  >> "like our lead in technology" > True, and I don't know how much longer this can last. Yeah, especially since many, many Americans seem to stupidly reassure themselves by wishfully thinking it's some kind of natural advantage they have (e.g. the Chinese only copy, etc.). IMHO, it's not too wrong to assume the PRC essentially has technical parity now, which should be pretty concerning to Americans because they also stupidly disposed of many of their other capabilities for short term business reasons.
- rayiner 5y ago
  It’s been a slow retreat. 15 years ago I was sitting around with a Juniper engineer mocking how Huawei had copied their router designs down to the English silk screening. Now, Huawei is making state of the art networking equipment with its own custom switch and router chips. Not only did Juniper move manufacturing from Walnut Creek to China years ago, some of its low end products are now white box Chinese designs. Taiwan recently overtook Intel in semiconductor manufacturing, another area where we used to be peerless. How long before China matches is on that front as well? Chinese industrial policy is kicking our ass. The Fortune 500 executives that kiss Xi’s ass know this (https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/560386-ceo-nike-is-a-brand-that-is-of-china-and-for-china https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/...). That’s why they’re so obsequious.
magpi3 5y ago
China (and Russia's) disadvantage is that they are autocratic nations that don't play nicely with others. The West's advantage is its alliances. If the U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan, Europe, etc. all move in lockstep, autocratic nations can't ignore them. You talk about a cold war as in specifically U.S. vs China. If it is just U.S. vs. China (meaning the U.S. isolates itself further from its allies in the future), then the U.S. will lose. China has a quarter of the world's population, heavily invests in science and technology, and has a population that is intensely nationalistic and works its ass off. The need for self-censorship and the cultural resistance to individualism means that the Chinese will always struggle in the arts, but that's about it.
- Tenoke 5y ago
  > The West's advantage is its alliances. What's the practicality of that? It's not like the rest of the US is dealing less with China because it's less allied with them in the ways that really matter like business or trade.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nradov 5y ago
  Containing China effectively will require a high degree of cooperation between Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines. Those nations don't necessarily get along, and some of them are autocratic themselves.
  - sunstone 5y ago
    Asia is helpful but Europe is essential.
    - arcanon 5y ago
      You missed the most important one. India. But yea I don’t see Oceania uniting anytime soon. What’s going to happen with the demographics in China?
DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
> it's obvious now that the West needs to start acting China's drive to reduce dependence on imports of high-tech goods is a reaction to the US' attempts over the last few years to use this dependence against China. The US has used its central position in the world's financial system to force other countries to stop doing business with certain Chinese companies, such as Huawei. This can be a death sentence for these companies. Huawei can't buy 7nm chips from anyone - including Chinese companies - because those companies are afraid of US sanctions. China has recognized that it is vulnerable to this type of economic aggression, and is taking measures to insulate itself. I expect to see China, Russia and other countries targeted by sanctions build up financial systems that bypass the US dollar, and for China to try to reduce dependence on high-tech imports. This all goes back to the aggressive foreign policy that Trump initiated, and which Biden appears to be continuing.
nebula8804 5y ago
We have no good leadership coming to right this ship. Biden is a bust and next time around we either get Trump or Kamala...I don't think any sane person would feel confident in either of them. The elite in this country caused this mess with China and they will end up finishing us off thanks to their election games. Maybe leadership at the top doesn't matter. There is the rest of the government, a huge organization of mostly unelected life term bureaucrats many of whom have probably seen the last cold war. They may end up saving us or China stumbles massively and their disadvantages(aging population, badly built infrastructure) bite them enough for us to survive.
- mc32 5y ago
  Looking back at the candidates we’ve had since Bush vs Clinton, the only one who I think saw this coming and would have mobilized against it was Ross Perot. Everyone else saw $$ in their eyes as the shiny potential in China froze them in place. Ross had money and didn’t care about upsetting industrialists. Most other politicians will give in to industrial and commercial interests even when they carry long term detriment to the economy and its people.
  - nebula8804 5y ago
    I'll be honest, I wasn't around for Ross Perot but have read nice things. I think we don't even need the best leadership...just someone who is kinda courageous and somewhat competent. That plus all the good things the US has going for it might be enough to solve this crisis. We have had instances in the past of a black swan coming out of nowhere to save the day. Maybe this will happen again in 2024. As far as I can tell the Democrats don't have to choose Kamala although how often has the VP not gotten serious consideration in recent times? Especially when she is the establishment favorite? And while it would be nice to see Trump get knocked out in the primary, all signs point to him being too far ahead of any other republican to be knocked out. Just a sad situation all around that we have to hope for a pleasant surprise.
    - mc32 5y ago
      I don't see anyone either. Perhaps Bloomberg. He seems to have run NYC better than most. That said, he was on the finance side of things, not industrial, so I'm not sure how sympathetic he would be towards the interests of working class Americans. We need someone who understands capitalism and favors markets but also knows when to control the markets and not allow them to sell us under the table. Someone who understands their responsibility is the American economy and its people and not how well companies do in China or Indonesia or not. Yes, sure, we need foreign markets and they need us, but we should not cave in and let them limit what we can do in their country but then allow them to do as they will here. It has to have some reciprocity. We also need to take into account labor laws and environmental impact when assessing tariffs.
tarsinge 5y ago
Contrary to the Cold War that situation seems the be responsibility of the West. China wouldn’t have become that powerful if the west didn’t put so much assets and production there with the naive thinking that capitalism alone would erode dictatorship.
tablespoon 5y ago
> This has been building for at least 5 years, but it's obvious now that the West needs to start acting. We didn't win the cold war by pretending it wasn't going on and China has certain advantages that we don't have. We have to coordinate on two separate levels that they do not. First, at the state level, where the game theory goes against us because it's typically rival factions (Democrats vs Republicans) and second at the alliance level where we need to coordinate between only semi-aligned nations. Don't forget Western business interests, which are politically powerful and will often succeed at blocking any action that interferes with their short-term profits. Their loyalty is to their shareholders, and they'll sell everyone else out for them. I actually see this as the biggest problem preventing the West from taking effective action. The PRC doesn't have this problem, because its businesses are clearly subordinate to its political apparatus (e.g. they've been making examples out of very large and successful companies lately).
trasz 5y ago
What we really have to do is to leave the US to itself and instead side with someone more peaceful instead.

BitwiseFool 5y ago

>"like our lead in technology" True, and I don't know how much longer this can last. As an example, the rise of TikTok has certainly taken me by surprise. I've always seen world-class social media apps as a Silicon-Valley thing, something that only the US managed to produce. But now, not so much.

mensetmanusman 5y ago
TikTok is Vine 2.0, surprised it didn’t happen in the west as well.
- BitwiseFool 5y ago
  I still don't understand why Vine went away. It seemed to be doing so well.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    6s was the wrong choice for max length.
    - worker767424 5y ago
      A surprising number of consumer startups are the same as another product, but with different business logic. Just look at Bumble.
  - nemothekid 5y ago
    >I still don't understand why Vine went away. Twitter/Vine did not want to pay creators. I don't know the history on why YouTube/Twitch/TikTok figured it out and why Snap/Twitter/FB drag their feet with it. I remember there was a turning point where many large creators on Vine decided to move to Instagram/YouTube because it was easier to monetize.
worker767424 5y ago
TikTok's only interesting technology is its recommendation system, which I doubt is that different or innovative compared to Netflix or Youtube. Maybe they're better at moderation because it makes censorship easier?
- OnlineGladiator 5y ago
  > TikTok's only interesting technology is its recommendation system Come on, that's sorta like saying "Google's only interesting technology is its search algorithm" (I'm being a little loose here, but going back 20 years I'd say that's true). When it's the defining feature of your product, it's the only thing that matters and why it's the leader. Unless somebody can mimic TikTok's success, dismissing them seems arrogant. > which I doubt is that different or innovative compared to Netflix or Youtube Speaking from personal experience, Youtube has a horrible recommendation system, and Netflix is somewhere between okay and good.
tablespoon 5y ago
>> "like our lead in technology" > True, and I don't know how much longer this can last. Yeah, especially since many, many Americans seem to stupidly reassure themselves by wishfully thinking it's some kind of natural advantage they have (e.g. the Chinese only copy, etc.). IMHO, it's not too wrong to assume the PRC essentially has technical parity now, which should be pretty concerning to Americans because they also stupidly disposed of many of their other capabilities for short term business reasons.
rayiner 5y ago
It’s been a slow retreat. 15 years ago I was sitting around with a Juniper engineer mocking how Huawei had copied their router designs down to the English silk screening. Now, Huawei is making state of the art networking equipment with its own custom switch and router chips. Not only did Juniper move manufacturing from Walnut Creek to China years ago, some of its low end products are now white box Chinese designs. Taiwan recently overtook Intel in semiconductor manufacturing, another area where we used to be peerless. How long before China matches is on that front as well? Chinese industrial policy is kicking our ass. The Fortune 500 executives that kiss Xi’s ass know this (https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/560386-ceo-nike-is-a-brand-that-is-of-china-and-for-china https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/...). That’s why they’re so obsequious.

magpi3 5y ago

China (and Russia's) disadvantage is that they are autocratic nations that don't play nicely with others. The West's advantage is its alliances. If the U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan, Europe, etc. all move in lockstep, autocratic nations can't ignore them. You talk about a cold war as in specifically U.S. vs China. If it is just U.S. vs. China (meaning the U.S. isolates itself further from its allies in the future), then the U.S. will lose. China has a quarter of the world's population, heavily invests in science and technology, and has a population that is intensely nationalistic and works its ass off. The need for self-censorship and the cultural resistance to individualism means that the Chinese will always struggle in the arts, but that's about it.

Tenoke 5y ago
> The West's advantage is its alliances. What's the practicality of that? It's not like the rest of the US is dealing less with China because it's less allied with them in the ways that really matter like business or trade.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nradov 5y ago
Containing China effectively will require a high degree of cooperation between Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines. Those nations don't necessarily get along, and some of them are autocratic themselves.
- sunstone 5y ago
  Asia is helpful but Europe is essential.
  - arcanon 5y ago
    You missed the most important one. India. But yea I don’t see Oceania uniting anytime soon. What’s going to happen with the demographics in China?

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago

> it's obvious now that the West needs to start acting China's drive to reduce dependence on imports of high-tech goods is a reaction to the US' attempts over the last few years to use this dependence against China. The US has used its central position in the world's financial system to force other countries to stop doing business with certain Chinese companies, such as Huawei. This can be a death sentence for these companies. Huawei can't buy 7nm chips from anyone - including Chinese companies - because those companies are afraid of US sanctions. China has recognized that it is vulnerable to this type of economic aggression, and is taking measures to insulate itself. I expect to see China, Russia and other countries targeted by sanctions build up financial systems that bypass the US dollar, and for China to try to reduce dependence on high-tech imports. This all goes back to the aggressive foreign policy that Trump initiated, and which Biden appears to be continuing.

nebula8804 5y ago

We have no good leadership coming to right this ship. Biden is a bust and next time around we either get Trump or Kamala...I don't think any sane person would feel confident in either of them. The elite in this country caused this mess with China and they will end up finishing us off thanks to their election games. Maybe leadership at the top doesn't matter. There is the rest of the government, a huge organization of mostly unelected life term bureaucrats many of whom have probably seen the last cold war. They may end up saving us or China stumbles massively and their disadvantages(aging population, badly built infrastructure) bite them enough for us to survive.

mc32 5y ago
Looking back at the candidates we’ve had since Bush vs Clinton, the only one who I think saw this coming and would have mobilized against it was Ross Perot. Everyone else saw $$ in their eyes as the shiny potential in China froze them in place. Ross had money and didn’t care about upsetting industrialists. Most other politicians will give in to industrial and commercial interests even when they carry long term detriment to the economy and its people.
- nebula8804 5y ago
  I'll be honest, I wasn't around for Ross Perot but have read nice things. I think we don't even need the best leadership...just someone who is kinda courageous and somewhat competent. That plus all the good things the US has going for it might be enough to solve this crisis. We have had instances in the past of a black swan coming out of nowhere to save the day. Maybe this will happen again in 2024. As far as I can tell the Democrats don't have to choose Kamala although how often has the VP not gotten serious consideration in recent times? Especially when she is the establishment favorite? And while it would be nice to see Trump get knocked out in the primary, all signs point to him being too far ahead of any other republican to be knocked out. Just a sad situation all around that we have to hope for a pleasant surprise.
  - mc32 5y ago
    I don't see anyone either. Perhaps Bloomberg. He seems to have run NYC better than most. That said, he was on the finance side of things, not industrial, so I'm not sure how sympathetic he would be towards the interests of working class Americans. We need someone who understands capitalism and favors markets but also knows when to control the markets and not allow them to sell us under the table. Someone who understands their responsibility is the American economy and its people and not how well companies do in China or Indonesia or not. Yes, sure, we need foreign markets and they need us, but we should not cave in and let them limit what we can do in their country but then allow them to do as they will here. It has to have some reciprocity. We also need to take into account labor laws and environmental impact when assessing tariffs.

tarsinge 5y ago

Contrary to the Cold War that situation seems the be responsibility of the West. China wouldn’t have become that powerful if the west didn’t put so much assets and production there with the naive thinking that capitalism alone would erode dictatorship.

tablespoon 5y ago

> This has been building for at least 5 years, but it's obvious now that the West needs to start acting. We didn't win the cold war by pretending it wasn't going on and China has certain advantages that we don't have. We have to coordinate on two separate levels that they do not. First, at the state level, where the game theory goes against us because it's typically rival factions (Democrats vs Republicans) and second at the alliance level where we need to coordinate between only semi-aligned nations. Don't forget Western business interests, which are politically powerful and will often succeed at blocking any action that interferes with their short-term profits. Their loyalty is to their shareholders, and they'll sell everyone else out for them. I actually see this as the biggest problem preventing the West from taking effective action. The PRC doesn't have this problem, because its businesses are clearly subordinate to its political apparatus (e.g. they've been making examples out of very large and successful companies lately).

trasz 5y ago

What we really have to do is to leave the US to itself and instead side with someone more peaceful instead.