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I guess I'm one of the "older folks" the parent post was talking about, and the "dire prognostications" I grew up with were much more severe than any of that.

I guess I'm one of the "older folks" the parent post was talking about, and the "dire prognostications" I grew up with were much more severe than any of that. I grew up with things like the population explosion predictions of the 1970s, that mass famine would kill hundreds of millions and that famine would spread to industrialized countries. That was when the population of the world was under 4 billion. Things like Erlich's bet that commodity prices would skyrocket. The Hubbert peak theory for oil, anyone remember the Oil Drum blog? And of course many, many permutations of, "if we don't do X by date Y, it will be too late for humanity. Won't somebody please think of the children"? Y is usually at least 10 years out, 8 years is a pretty bold departure for this genre. I don't pay much attention to doom porn anymore, I guess I'm glad that the end of the world keeps getting pushed back for a few more years.

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nradov 5y ago
We are starting to see crop yields decline in some tropical countries due to drought and higher temperatures. This is one factor behind unrest and migration in Central America and the Middle East.
- cogman10 5y ago
  Not just tropical. The western states are looking at historic droughts right now. This year is going to see some pretty poor crop yields. All indicators are this is something that's going to continue for several years.
- rufus_foreman 5y ago
  >> We are starting to see crop yields decline in some tropical countries We are seeing crop yields rise in other tropical countries. The prediction wasn't that crop yields would fall in some countries and rise in others with the overall result being steadily increasing food production per capita through the 2020's. The prediction was massive famine with hundreds of millions dead in the 1970s spreading to the industrialized world by 2000. And the prediction wasn't based on climate change, it was based on simple population growth. We currently have the lowest percentage of people living in absolute poverty in all of human history. And the birth rate is under the replacement birth rate almost everywhere outside of Africa. The doom population explosion scenario that was predicted simply did not happen. Technology won.

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nradov 5y ago

We are starting to see crop yields decline in some tropical countries due to drought and higher temperatures. This is one factor behind unrest and migration in Central America and the Middle East.

cogman10 5y ago
Not just tropical. The western states are looking at historic droughts right now. This year is going to see some pretty poor crop yields. All indicators are this is something that's going to continue for several years.
rufus_foreman 5y ago
>> We are starting to see crop yields decline in some tropical countries We are seeing crop yields rise in other tropical countries. The prediction wasn't that crop yields would fall in some countries and rise in others with the overall result being steadily increasing food production per capita through the 2020's. The prediction was massive famine with hundreds of millions dead in the 1970s spreading to the industrialized world by 2000. And the prediction wasn't based on climate change, it was based on simple population growth. We currently have the lowest percentage of people living in absolute poverty in all of human history. And the birth rate is under the replacement birth rate almost everywhere outside of Africa. The doom population explosion scenario that was predicted simply did not happen. Technology won.