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I also found this remarkable. The Seychelles, one of the most vaccinated countries on earth had a huge spike. It also looks like countries with strict lockdowns

by adevx 5y ago

I also found this remarkable. The Seychelles, one of the most vaccinated countries on earth had a huge spike. It also looks like countries with strict lockdowns (UK, Belgium) are doing worse than countries with much looser restrictions like Sweden. Of course this is cherry picking countries to fit my narrative, but at the very least it shows things aren't as black and white as often presented. Maybe thinking one is 100% protected after vaccination is what creates this issue ? Maybe vaccinated people still spread the virus like wildfire yet somehow do not require to show a negative test to board a plane or visit events? https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-06-08..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=BEL~AUS~SWE~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

zarzavat 5y ago
Cause and effect is the other way around. UK had one of the strictest lockdowns because UK was extremely unwilling to lock down last autumn. UK actually had coronavirus under control in summer 2020. Cases started rising again in September after the school holidays but the govt didn't close schools until January 4 months later, by which time the cases had ballooned to gargantuan levels, necessitating a gargantuan lockdown when the shit hit the fan.
- naturalauction 5y ago
  Also just to note how extremely unwilling the uk government was to lock down, when they closed schools in January they didn’t close them directly after the winter break. Instead they allowed all kids to go to school for one day in January and then decided to lock down when the numbers looked bad on Monday evening after all the kids had already been to school (which obviously caused a lot of spread for that one day).
LeanderK 5y ago
UK is not in a strict lockdown and has not been for some time. They are currently opening everything.
adventured 5y ago
The propaganda machine is currently at the stage where they won't admit that there are many break-through delta cases, they won't admit that it's common, and they don't want to loudly admit that vaccinated people are spreading the virus. The CDC & Co. have been trying to hide the explosion in delta cases since May. The intellectual con being put on by the authorities here in the US is extraordinary. I have a friend that works as a nurse in a nursing home. The staff is tested constantly and all staff have been required to have the Pfizer BioNTech mRNA vaccine. The problem? The 100% vaccinated staff members keep testing positive for the virus - a problem that began recently with the delta spread across the US - despite full vaccination and it's making it next to impossible to operate the nursing home safely. This is the kind of thing they're still keeping out of the news and refusing to talk about (break-through cases are rare, they say; that's entirely a lie). Authorities are terrified that if they admit the truth at this juncture (that even the mRNA vaccines don't work well against preventing delta infections, and that they only work well at preventing severe outcomes), a lot of the remaining unvaccinated won't bother to get vaccinated. And plausibly they're right about that, it would plunk new vaccination rates lower. They also don't want to admit that common masks don't work against delta, they're close to being worthless. Mask theater is a bad joke and the population has largely figured it out, the authorities here have destroyed their credibility by flip-flopping and lying constantly.
AndrewBissell 5y ago
There was a long period where it was promised the vaccines were going to deliver herd immunity and eliminate the virus (perhaps not by public health officials, they're too savvy for that, but they were happy not to push back against the idea as it was propagated in the popular science press), but this is being quickly walked back as it becomes clear the vaccinated can play host to large amounts of virus. It's yet another Covid bait-and-switch, just like "it's just the flu, no need to worry -> oh actually it's the most lethal virus ever and we need to lock everything down," "15 days to slow the spread -> stay at home until spring when cases come back down," and "the vaccines will get us back to normal -> oh we need you to wear masks again". The crux of the issue is not that vaccinated people are living their lives as normal (or rather, as "normal" used to be in 2019), but that SARS-CoV-2 is an endemic seasonal virus for which there are no forms of sterilizing immunity, so it's going to keep showing up over and over as long as we are testing for it. If we then use those positive test numbers (euphemistically termed "Covid-19 cases" even though they are often not associated with any actual disease or symptoms) to justify lockdowns, school closures, etc, we will be doing them forever. Australia's seven day average death toll from Covid is at 1, and the UK's death toll from its recent Delta wave was a mere fraction of what was seen in earlier waves. I used to think it wouldn't be possible to maintain the public's level of panic once either the vaccines, natural immunity, or the virus's natural course of evolution drove it to become less lethal. Now I'm really not so sure.
- landemva 5y ago
  People seem to want to believe big government and lockdowns can be beneficial, but flareups and death numbers show otherwise. Somehow many people are OK living in fear, and seem to want the fear excitement to continue. In practical terms, those who think they are at risk should stay home and isolate themselves. Cuomo in New York shoved positive cases into nursing homes, so big government policies killed vulnerable people. Take care of yourself and your diet.
  - tdfx 5y ago
    > People seem to want to believe big government and lockdowns can be beneficial I'm surprised how many otherwise rational people aren't more inquisitive about the efficacy of lockdowns. Where's the proof that they have beneficial long-term impact and they're not just kicking the can down the road? It seems similar to "wonder diets", i.e. when you're not losing weight, then you're not following the diet strictly enough, and any weight you lose is magically attributed to the diet.
mikem170 5y ago
The PCR tests are too sensitive [0], experts are saying that it looks like 90% of positive people may not infected or infectious and should not be counted as positive. They are running too many cycles for these tests, making them something like 100 times more sensitive than tests for other viruses. [0] https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19-positivity-rate-high-due-to-too-sensitive-tests/ar-BB18wE8B https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19...
- mizzack 5y ago
  The CDC limits CT to 28 for vaccinated samples when counting breakthrough cases. > For cases with a known RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value, submit only specimens with Ct value ≤28 to CDC for sequencing. (Sequencing is not feasible with higher Ct values.) https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...
  - adevx 5y ago
    Interesting, so the balance is even further skewed when comparing with the unvaccinated.

by adevx 5y ago

zarzavat 5y ago

Cause and effect is the other way around. UK had one of the strictest lockdowns because UK was extremely unwilling to lock down last autumn. UK actually had coronavirus under control in summer 2020. Cases started rising again in September after the school holidays but the govt didn't close schools until January 4 months later, by which time the cases had ballooned to gargantuan levels, necessitating a gargantuan lockdown when the shit hit the fan.

naturalauction 5y ago
Also just to note how extremely unwilling the uk government was to lock down, when they closed schools in January they didn’t close them directly after the winter break. Instead they allowed all kids to go to school for one day in January and then decided to lock down when the numbers looked bad on Monday evening after all the kids had already been to school (which obviously caused a lot of spread for that one day).

LeanderK 5y ago

UK is not in a strict lockdown and has not been for some time. They are currently opening everything.

adventured 5y ago

The propaganda machine is currently at the stage where they won't admit that there are many break-through delta cases, they won't admit that it's common, and they don't want to loudly admit that vaccinated people are spreading the virus. The CDC & Co. have been trying to hide the explosion in delta cases since May. The intellectual con being put on by the authorities here in the US is extraordinary. I have a friend that works as a nurse in a nursing home. The staff is tested constantly and all staff have been required to have the Pfizer BioNTech mRNA vaccine. The problem? The 100% vaccinated staff members keep testing positive for the virus - a problem that began recently with the delta spread across the US - despite full vaccination and it's making it next to impossible to operate the nursing home safely. This is the kind of thing they're still keeping out of the news and refusing to talk about (break-through cases are rare, they say; that's entirely a lie). Authorities are terrified that if they admit the truth at this juncture (that even the mRNA vaccines don't work well against preventing delta infections, and that they only work well at preventing severe outcomes), a lot of the remaining unvaccinated won't bother to get vaccinated. And plausibly they're right about that, it would plunk new vaccination rates lower. They also don't want to admit that common masks don't work against delta, they're close to being worthless. Mask theater is a bad joke and the population has largely figured it out, the authorities here have destroyed their credibility by flip-flopping and lying constantly.

AndrewBissell 5y ago

There was a long period where it was promised the vaccines were going to deliver herd immunity and eliminate the virus (perhaps not by public health officials, they're too savvy for that, but they were happy not to push back against the idea as it was propagated in the popular science press), but this is being quickly walked back as it becomes clear the vaccinated can play host to large amounts of virus. It's yet another Covid bait-and-switch, just like "it's just the flu, no need to worry -> oh actually it's the most lethal virus ever and we need to lock everything down," "15 days to slow the spread -> stay at home until spring when cases come back down," and "the vaccines will get us back to normal -> oh we need you to wear masks again". The crux of the issue is not that vaccinated people are living their lives as normal (or rather, as "normal" used to be in 2019), but that SARS-CoV-2 is an endemic seasonal virus for which there are no forms of sterilizing immunity, so it's going to keep showing up over and over as long as we are testing for it. If we then use those positive test numbers (euphemistically termed "Covid-19 cases" even though they are often not associated with any actual disease or symptoms) to justify lockdowns, school closures, etc, we will be doing them forever. Australia's seven day average death toll from Covid is at 1, and the UK's death toll from its recent Delta wave was a mere fraction of what was seen in earlier waves. I used to think it wouldn't be possible to maintain the public's level of panic once either the vaccines, natural immunity, or the virus's natural course of evolution drove it to become less lethal. Now I'm really not so sure.

landemva 5y ago
People seem to want to believe big government and lockdowns can be beneficial, but flareups and death numbers show otherwise. Somehow many people are OK living in fear, and seem to want the fear excitement to continue. In practical terms, those who think they are at risk should stay home and isolate themselves. Cuomo in New York shoved positive cases into nursing homes, so big government policies killed vulnerable people. Take care of yourself and your diet.
- tdfx 5y ago
  > People seem to want to believe big government and lockdowns can be beneficial I'm surprised how many otherwise rational people aren't more inquisitive about the efficacy of lockdowns. Where's the proof that they have beneficial long-term impact and they're not just kicking the can down the road? It seems similar to "wonder diets", i.e. when you're not losing weight, then you're not following the diet strictly enough, and any weight you lose is magically attributed to the diet.

mikem170 5y ago

The PCR tests are too sensitive [0], experts are saying that it looks like 90% of positive people may not infected or infectious and should not be counted as positive. They are running too many cycles for these tests, making them something like 100 times more sensitive than tests for other viruses. [0] https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19-positivity-rate-high-due-to-too-sensitive-tests/ar-BB18wE8B https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19...

mizzack 5y ago
The CDC limits CT to 28 for vaccinated samples when counting breakthrough cases. > For cases with a known RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value, submit only specimens with Ct value ≤28 to CDC for sequencing. (Sequencing is not feasible with higher Ct values.) https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...
- adevx 5y ago
  Interesting, so the balance is even further skewed when comparing with the unvaccinated.