7 ms·

Are there any vaccines in history that have caused something unexpected 10 years from injection?

astura 5y ago
No. https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/how-do-we-know-covid-19-vaccine-wont-have-long-term-side-effects https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/how-do-we-know-covid-19... >When new vaccines are released, the unknown side effects, if any, show up within two months of vaccination. This history goes back to at least the 1960s with the oral polio vaccine and examples continue through today. Beyond that you have to look at this in context - the probability of being harmed by COVID-19 vaccine (including long term) vs the probability of being harmed by a COVID-19 infection (including long term). The vaccine have the lower probability of harm by a very large magnitude.
nevir 5y ago
Have we had any other mRNA based vaccines in the past? (genuinely curious)
- aaomidi 5y ago
  There are vaccines you can get that aren't mRNA based.
  - endisneigh 5y ago
    I'm genuinely curious if you could sue Google if you got J&J because of their mandate and you happened to be one of the extremely rare folks who got a blood clot from it.
    - pb7 5y ago
      You can sue. It's unlikely that you would win though.
  - tome 5y ago
    Are there vaccines widely available in the US whose delivery mechanism was well established before 2020? The J&J vaccines are viral vector, a class of vaccines which has only been approved for human use twice before, in presumably small numbers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine
    - thisiscorrect 5y ago
      Not yet. I believe Novavax's protein subunit vaccine would use the same mechanism as the MMR vaccine. Well outside my domain but my understanding is that you're given a premade dose of SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins and an adjuvant to boost an immune rsponse to them, instead of producing the spike proteins yourself (as is the case for both mRNA and viral vector vaccines). [1] gives results of their phase 3 trials. The Atlantic [2] gives an overview aimed at a popular audience. [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107659 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107659 [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/06/novavax-now-best-covid-19-vaccine/619276/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/06/novavax-n...
- ollien 5y ago
  This is the first one that has been approved in any capacity by a regulatory authority: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#Acceleration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#Acceleration
azangru 5y ago
Are there any human vaccines in history that are based on mRNA?
- ericmay 5y ago
  1) Get the JnJ one then? 2) Do you have any evidence to suggest a risk with the mRNA delivery vehicle? If so, what is that risk and why will it materialize in some unknown amount of time instead of after someone gets the vaccine?
  - tome 5y ago
    1) That's not really a convincing response. There were only two viral vector vaccines ever approved for human use before 2020, both for ebola I believe, and therefore probably not widely administered. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine 2. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. [Full disclosure: I have had one shot of BioNTech and am waiting for my second.]
    - ericmay 5y ago
      > 1) That's not really a convincing response. There were only two viral vector vaccines ever approved for human use before 2020, both for ebola I believe, and therefore probably not widely administered. So the concern isn't mRNA or is it? > 2. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Sure, but it also means you need some sort of empirical or a priori starting point. There isn't even a hypothesis to gather evidence for except "this vaccine might cause something spooky to happen in the future". What is that spooky thing? Let's gather evidence.
      - tome 5y ago
        I'm only guessing based on my personal interpretation of azangru, but I think the concern is delivery mechanisms that have never, or only rarely, been used before. Regarding evidence for "spooky things", well, by their nature there is no or little evidence for them. They are black swans and the means by which they are addressed is the precautionary principle. In particular, by their nature, there can be no evidence about presence or absence of long term effects of novel delivery mechanisms. Personally speaking, I suspect I'm a lot better off being vaccinated than not but some of the credulity around vaccines is rather surprising to me (especially the fact that many people don't seem to know that J&J uses a novel delivery mechanism too).
ProAm 5y ago
> Are there any vaccines in history that have caused something unexpected 10 years from injection? Yes [1] *EDIT* - People are being pedantic saying it's not a vaccine while technically true it was a government approved medication that had horrific side effects discovered after approval. This is why people are wary about taking a vaccine still under approval as 'emergency use'. And also ridiculous to force employees back into an office and also require them to be injected with something they may not wish to. Just let them work from home if they choose to not get vaccinated with am emergency approval drug. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal
- mjg59 5y ago
  Thalidomide isn't a vaccine.
- tome 5y ago
  Huh, that's not a vaccine and where's the evidence it had unexpected effects 10 years after administration?
- UncleMeat 5y ago
  Not a vaccine.
- seanhunter 5y ago
  Thalidomide was a terrible medical scandal, but it's not a vaccine. Secondly it didn't cause something unexpected 10 years from injection, it had a side-effect if you were pregnant while taking it.
- dekhn 5y ago
  BTW, thalidomide is still prescribed, it's a very effective drug.
endisneigh 5y ago
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... The Cutter Incident seems like the most damning.
- delecti 5y ago
  IMO that's actually a good example of why we should be confident about the COVID vaccines. There was only about 2 weeks between the Cutter Lab vaccine being approved for distribution, and being pulled because of the side effects. Vaccine side effects aren't vanishingly rare, even serious ones, but vaccine side effects taking months or years to appear (in contrast to minutes-weeks) are.
nabla9 5y ago
The answer is no for any detectable or significant population size. If one in million gets something unexpected, it does not matter. All mRNA vaccine is gone from the body in few days. Usually, the immune response comes within days or weeks. Theoretically, there is always a change that vaccination triggers some slowly developing auto-immune disease, but that could be triggered by COVID-19 as well (they have the same mRNA). I would be more worried about Long-COVID symptoms. They might be a sign of something chronic for a significant fraction of the population.

No. https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/how-do-we-know-covid-19-vaccine-wont-have-long-term-side-effects https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/how-do-we-know-covid-19... >When new vaccines are released, the unknown side effects, if any, show up within two months of vaccination. This history goes back to at least the 1960s with the oral polio vaccine and examples continue through today. Beyond that you have to look at this in context - the probability of being harmed by COVID-19 vaccine (including long term) vs the probability of being harmed by a COVID-19 infection (including long term). The vaccine have the lower probability of harm by a very large magnitude.

nevir 5y ago

Have we had any other mRNA based vaccines in the past? (genuinely curious)

aaomidi 5y ago
There are vaccines you can get that aren't mRNA based.
- endisneigh 5y ago
  I'm genuinely curious if you could sue Google if you got J&J because of their mandate and you happened to be one of the extremely rare folks who got a blood clot from it.
  - pb7 5y ago
    You can sue. It's unlikely that you would win though.
- tome 5y ago
  Are there vaccines widely available in the US whose delivery mechanism was well established before 2020? The J&J vaccines are viral vector, a class of vaccines which has only been approved for human use twice before, in presumably small numbers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine
  - thisiscorrect 5y ago
    Not yet. I believe Novavax's protein subunit vaccine would use the same mechanism as the MMR vaccine. Well outside my domain but my understanding is that you're given a premade dose of SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins and an adjuvant to boost an immune rsponse to them, instead of producing the spike proteins yourself (as is the case for both mRNA and viral vector vaccines). [1] gives results of their phase 3 trials. The Atlantic [2] gives an overview aimed at a popular audience. [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107659 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107659 [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/06/novavax-now-best-covid-19-vaccine/619276/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/06/novavax-n...
ollien 5y ago
This is the first one that has been approved in any capacity by a regulatory authority: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#Acceleration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#Acceleration

azangru 5y ago

Are there any human vaccines in history that are based on mRNA?

ericmay 5y ago
1) Get the JnJ one then? 2) Do you have any evidence to suggest a risk with the mRNA delivery vehicle? If so, what is that risk and why will it materialize in some unknown amount of time instead of after someone gets the vaccine?
- tome 5y ago
  1) That's not really a convincing response. There were only two viral vector vaccines ever approved for human use before 2020, both for ebola I believe, and therefore probably not widely administered. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_vector_vaccine 2. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. [Full disclosure: I have had one shot of BioNTech and am waiting for my second.]
  - ericmay 5y ago
    > 1) That's not really a convincing response. There were only two viral vector vaccines ever approved for human use before 2020, both for ebola I believe, and therefore probably not widely administered. So the concern isn't mRNA or is it? > 2. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Sure, but it also means you need some sort of empirical or a priori starting point. There isn't even a hypothesis to gather evidence for except "this vaccine might cause something spooky to happen in the future". What is that spooky thing? Let's gather evidence.
    - tome 5y ago
      I'm only guessing based on my personal interpretation of azangru, but I think the concern is delivery mechanisms that have never, or only rarely, been used before. Regarding evidence for "spooky things", well, by their nature there is no or little evidence for them. They are black swans and the means by which they are addressed is the precautionary principle. In particular, by their nature, there can be no evidence about presence or absence of long term effects of novel delivery mechanisms. Personally speaking, I suspect I'm a lot better off being vaccinated than not but some of the credulity around vaccines is rather surprising to me (especially the fact that many people don't seem to know that J&J uses a novel delivery mechanism too).

ProAm 5y ago

> Are there any vaccines in history that have caused something unexpected 10 years from injection? Yes [1] *EDIT* - People are being pedantic saying it's not a vaccine while technically true it was a government approved medication that had horrific side effects discovered after approval. This is why people are wary about taking a vaccine still under approval as 'emergency use'. And also ridiculous to force employees back into an office and also require them to be injected with something they may not wish to. Just let them work from home if they choose to not get vaccinated with am emergency approval drug. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal

mjg59 5y ago
Thalidomide isn't a vaccine.
tome 5y ago
Huh, that's not a vaccine and where's the evidence it had unexpected effects 10 years after administration?
UncleMeat 5y ago
Not a vaccine.
seanhunter 5y ago
Thalidomide was a terrible medical scandal, but it's not a vaccine. Secondly it didn't cause something unexpected 10 years from injection, it had a side-effect if you were pregnant while taking it.
dekhn 5y ago
BTW, thalidomide is still prescribed, it's a very effective drug.

endisneigh 5y ago

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... The Cutter Incident seems like the most damning.

delecti 5y ago
IMO that's actually a good example of why we should be confident about the COVID vaccines. There was only about 2 weeks between the Cutter Lab vaccine being approved for distribution, and being pulled because of the side effects. Vaccine side effects aren't vanishingly rare, even serious ones, but vaccine side effects taking months or years to appear (in contrast to minutes-weeks) are.

nabla9 5y ago

The answer is no for any detectable or significant population size. If one in million gets something unexpected, it does not matter. All mRNA vaccine is gone from the body in few days. Usually, the immune response comes within days or weeks. Theoretically, there is always a change that vaccination triggers some slowly developing auto-immune disease, but that could be triggered by COVID-19 as well (they have the same mRNA). I would be more worried about Long-COVID symptoms. They might be a sign of something chronic for a significant fraction of the population.