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My pet theory is that Toyota or Honda will be on life support by the end of next decade, if not dead. They both had a huge head start in batteries with their hy

My pet theory is that Toyota or Honda will be on life support by the end of next decade, if not dead. They both had a huge head start in batteries with their hybrids (Honda’s first hybrid was released in 1999), and they squandered it. Hopefully the Korean car companies crush them with superior products.

typon 5y ago
I've pre-ordered an Ioniq 5. Tesla has a real competitor in Hyundai. If you don't care about the "self-driving" thing, other companies are catching up fast.
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  I’ve gone from bullish to bearish on self driving, all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control and highway friendly lane keeping. Sadly the Ioniq 5 won’t be on sale in my state. I’m considering a model Y because the range is desirable for the semi-regular camping we do.
  - rpmisms 5y ago
    Good news: Tesla's basic Autopilot is fantastic for that. Just don't fall asleep.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    >all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control For some reason I read that as "all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control missiles".
- Infinitesimus 5y ago
  The ioniq 5 is a great vehicle. If their adaptive cruise control is anything like the current Sonata (that I have) with the new lane changing tech, it'll already go a long way in making highway drives and stop and go traffic a breeze. Not sure how well HDA 2 (their term for cruise control ) does but the older version doesn't handle sharper turns well and loses the lines briefly. New tech also steers the car out of harm's way like Tesla does so they've come a very long way.
- persedes 5y ago
  I was close to getting one 2 years ago. Did the safety tests improve since then? If I recall the 2019 had issues with the roof / pillars, which were not strong enough to support the car in case you flipped it.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    The Ioniq 5 has only just been released, it's a completely different design from the previous model.
rantwasp 5y ago
that’s a bold prediction. i don’t think it’s going to happen. building a car is about more than just the engine. It’s about the supply chain, it’s about parts, it’s about service. Toyota and Honda have a lot more experience in this area than a new-ish car manufacturer. They also build reliable, great cars that I like owning and driving. I like how everyone is up in arms about Toyota doing something [that serves their interest; in a legal way] to influence the government but people pretend Tesla is such a success story, ignoring all the money the govn has pumped into it.
- sixQuarks 5y ago
  So you’re ok with Toyota spreading FUD as long as it’s legal. Got it. As for Tesla’s government money, ev credits are available to all manufacturers, it’s not Tesla’s fault others can’t make compelling electric vehicles. All other government loans have been paid back in full. Maybe you should read more than just headlines
  - rantwasp 5y ago
    is it FUD though? were do you draw the line between legal and illegal. right or wrong? I think it’s absolutely expected for Toyota to attempt to protect their financial interests.
    - ashtonkem 5y ago
      It’s legal for them to do so, I just think they’re bad people for doing it. Attempting to slow down the de-carbonization of our transit because your company bet wrong is just evil, no way around it.
      - rantwasp 5y ago
        i agree with you in principle, but (there’s always a but) there are other more impactful things that can be done to cut down carbon emissions (modern cars are already stupid-efficient). Who has the mora authority to declare that Toyota should roll over and die to attain some goal that may or may not be achievable?
dnautics 5y ago
This is unlikely. Toyota, anyways, has really excelled in other ways, for example, using supply chains correctly and not taking a huge hit during the semiconductor shortage. The car market is also relatively slow to shift, I do think that there's plenty of time for Toyota to pivot.
- frumper 5y ago
  My local Toyota dealer has about 25 new cars on their lot instead of 150+, that sounds like a pretty big hit.
  - chipsa 5y ago
    Is it that they're suffering a car shortage, or everyone else is, and they're getting cleaned out because that's where people can find cars?
    - frumper 5y ago
      They told me they were having the same supply issues as everyone else right now. I wanted to look at a highlander hybrid and they said they were only getting sent 1 every few months and usually didn't know when it would arrive until it was in transit.
sithadmin 5y ago
There's zero chance Toyota ends up on 'life support' within a decade. They're a top 10 company globally in terms of revenue, and even in the worst case where they fail to release competitive EV models, the global switchover to hybrid electric (plus legacy ICE sales) in less developed markets will hold them over for quite a bit of time.
dekhn 5y ago
toyota has the best reputation in the entire industry, runs their business tight, and has no real pathway to life support unless they repeatedly failed on every single major initiative, which seems unlikely. I just bought a RAV4 Prime, it's a plugin hybrid. It looks like they are rolling out HV to their most popular models over the next few years. That gives them everything they need to make EV, HV, or gas vehicles for the forseeable future.
esalman 5y ago
I just leased a fully loaded Highlander which I intend to buy out after 3 years. So Toyota is getting my money for next 9 years, unless anything disastrous happens. I actually have another 7 year old Corolla, on which I have a spent a grand total of $140 in maintenance (battery). In fact I plan to purchase an 86 or a Supra in next couple of years or so. Last time I was driving a Hyundai, the engine lost power in the middle of evening rush hour traffic at 65mph on I-85, and the car had half the mileage of my Corolla. Toyota is going nowhere.
throwaway0a5e 5y ago
I'd like to see that because it would be a nice big middle finger to all the brain dead fanboys who insist Toyota can never do anything wrong but being a big national company in Japan no matter what they do or don't do they won't be allowed to fail for the same reasons VW or Boeing won't.
WorldMaker 5y ago
Honda actually seems to "get it" in Europe and Asian markets and may be on the path to navigating this transition. Honda of America seems the dumb beast too stupid to adapt and there is probably going to be a reckoning when it stops being hugely profitable to build giant gas guzzlers in America. Honda of America seems to have zero foresight or long term plan still. The Korean car conglomerate is definitely doing well with EVs, but if you are expecting someone to crush Toyota and/or Honda in Asian car sales especially, I'd keep an eye on Chinese EV companies. Some of them are doing wild work, and have got EV car costs down below nearly anyone else in the world with their economies of scale already. If some of those Chinese EV companies come to the American market I'm even curious if it would look just like the Honda/Toyota strategy of the 70s/80s with good value for the money cars that will surprise a lot of Americans that did not know they were looking for that sort of cheap/reliable.

typon 5y ago

I've pre-ordered an Ioniq 5. Tesla has a real competitor in Hyundai. If you don't care about the "self-driving" thing, other companies are catching up fast.

ashtonkem 5y ago
I’ve gone from bullish to bearish on self driving, all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control and highway friendly lane keeping. Sadly the Ioniq 5 won’t be on sale in my state. I’m considering a model Y because the range is desirable for the semi-regular camping we do.
- rpmisms 5y ago
  Good news: Tesla's basic Autopilot is fantastic for that. Just don't fall asleep.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  >all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control For some reason I read that as "all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control missiles".
Infinitesimus 5y ago
The ioniq 5 is a great vehicle. If their adaptive cruise control is anything like the current Sonata (that I have) with the new lane changing tech, it'll already go a long way in making highway drives and stop and go traffic a breeze. Not sure how well HDA 2 (their term for cruise control ) does but the older version doesn't handle sharper turns well and loses the lines briefly. New tech also steers the car out of harm's way like Tesla does so they've come a very long way.
persedes 5y ago
I was close to getting one 2 years ago. Did the safety tests improve since then? If I recall the 2019 had issues with the roof / pillars, which were not strong enough to support the car in case you flipped it.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  The Ioniq 5 has only just been released, it's a completely different design from the previous model.

rantwasp 5y ago

that’s a bold prediction. i don’t think it’s going to happen. building a car is about more than just the engine. It’s about the supply chain, it’s about parts, it’s about service. Toyota and Honda have a lot more experience in this area than a new-ish car manufacturer. They also build reliable, great cars that I like owning and driving. I like how everyone is up in arms about Toyota doing something [that serves their interest; in a legal way] to influence the government but people pretend Tesla is such a success story, ignoring all the money the govn has pumped into it.

sixQuarks 5y ago
So you’re ok with Toyota spreading FUD as long as it’s legal. Got it. As for Tesla’s government money, ev credits are available to all manufacturers, it’s not Tesla’s fault others can’t make compelling electric vehicles. All other government loans have been paid back in full. Maybe you should read more than just headlines
- rantwasp 5y ago
  is it FUD though? were do you draw the line between legal and illegal. right or wrong? I think it’s absolutely expected for Toyota to attempt to protect their financial interests.
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    It’s legal for them to do so, I just think they’re bad people for doing it. Attempting to slow down the de-carbonization of our transit because your company bet wrong is just evil, no way around it.
    - rantwasp 5y ago
      i agree with you in principle, but (there’s always a but) there are other more impactful things that can be done to cut down carbon emissions (modern cars are already stupid-efficient). Who has the mora authority to declare that Toyota should roll over and die to attain some goal that may or may not be achievable?

dnautics 5y ago

This is unlikely. Toyota, anyways, has really excelled in other ways, for example, using supply chains correctly and not taking a huge hit during the semiconductor shortage. The car market is also relatively slow to shift, I do think that there's plenty of time for Toyota to pivot.

frumper 5y ago
My local Toyota dealer has about 25 new cars on their lot instead of 150+, that sounds like a pretty big hit.
- chipsa 5y ago
  Is it that they're suffering a car shortage, or everyone else is, and they're getting cleaned out because that's where people can find cars?
  - frumper 5y ago
    They told me they were having the same supply issues as everyone else right now. I wanted to look at a highlander hybrid and they said they were only getting sent 1 every few months and usually didn't know when it would arrive until it was in transit.

sithadmin 5y ago

There's zero chance Toyota ends up on 'life support' within a decade. They're a top 10 company globally in terms of revenue, and even in the worst case where they fail to release competitive EV models, the global switchover to hybrid electric (plus legacy ICE sales) in less developed markets will hold them over for quite a bit of time.

dekhn 5y ago

toyota has the best reputation in the entire industry, runs their business tight, and has no real pathway to life support unless they repeatedly failed on every single major initiative, which seems unlikely. I just bought a RAV4 Prime, it's a plugin hybrid. It looks like they are rolling out HV to their most popular models over the next few years. That gives them everything they need to make EV, HV, or gas vehicles for the forseeable future.

esalman 5y ago

I just leased a fully loaded Highlander which I intend to buy out after 3 years. So Toyota is getting my money for next 9 years, unless anything disastrous happens. I actually have another 7 year old Corolla, on which I have a spent a grand total of $140 in maintenance (battery). In fact I plan to purchase an 86 or a Supra in next couple of years or so. Last time I was driving a Hyundai, the engine lost power in the middle of evening rush hour traffic at 65mph on I-85, and the car had half the mileage of my Corolla. Toyota is going nowhere.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

I'd like to see that because it would be a nice big middle finger to all the brain dead fanboys who insist Toyota can never do anything wrong but being a big national company in Japan no matter what they do or don't do they won't be allowed to fail for the same reasons VW or Boeing won't.

WorldMaker 5y ago

Honda actually seems to "get it" in Europe and Asian markets and may be on the path to navigating this transition. Honda of America seems the dumb beast too stupid to adapt and there is probably going to be a reckoning when it stops being hugely profitable to build giant gas guzzlers in America. Honda of America seems to have zero foresight or long term plan still. The Korean car conglomerate is definitely doing well with EVs, but if you are expecting someone to crush Toyota and/or Honda in Asian car sales especially, I'd keep an eye on Chinese EV companies. Some of them are doing wild work, and have got EV car costs down below nearly anyone else in the world with their economies of scale already. If some of those Chinese EV companies come to the American market I'm even curious if it would look just like the Honda/Toyota strategy of the 70s/80s with good value for the money cars that will surprise a lot of Americans that did not know they were looking for that sort of cheap/reliable.