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Has there ever been an example of that working in history? Even with lots of money, I think that’s a story of how to go bankrupt.

Dylan16807 5y ago
Has there ever been an example of that failing in history? I'm not sure you can find any historical situation that's close enough to this one to make a good analogy, especially because hydrogen isn't even a good fuel to start with. > Even with lots of money, I think that’s a story of how to go bankrupt. Well on a pure product/market basis they probably never should have made these hydrogen cars at all.
- fossuser 5y ago
  > Has there ever been an example of that failing in history? Zune, Windows Phone, Betamax, HD-DVD - maybe not perfect analogies, but there are lots of examples of people throwing lots of money at something to try to force widespread adoption and failing because the market doesn’t want it.
  - Dylan16807 5y ago
    If betamax and HD-DVD count as failures, then surely VHS and bluray count as successes? The other two don't work as well as infrastructure analogies.
    - fossuser 5y ago
      Arguably Bluray and VHS were already winning in those instances? They'd be the EV to Hydrogen's example, though it's a bit of a strained metaphor. I think it's rare for something without adoption to get taken up just because a larger player tries to use funds to force it to against the way the market is already going. I think Windows Phone is a pretty good example. Hydrogen adoption had a lot of issues of which infrastructure was just (a big) one.
  - simondotau 5y ago
    Betamax was not a failure, it just took second place to VHS in the consumer market where rental tapes was the dominant use case. Betamax still had moderate market share and found success in various professional niches. Listing it alongside actual failures like HD-DVD is disingenuous.
- eigen 5y ago
  > Has there ever been an example of that failing in history? I'm not sure you can find any historical situation that's close enough to this one to make a good analogy, especially because hydrogen isn't even a good fuel to start with. I'd think Iridium satellite phone is a great example of this. Motorola spent $5B to setup a constellation of satellites to sell $3k phones. It failed. turns out spending a ton of money to create a market is a huge gamble and the market can move in unexpected ways. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_satellite_constellation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_satellite_constellatio...
antris 5y ago
> Has there ever been an example of that working in history? Gas stations.
- fossuser 5y ago
  I don't think that was all at once - and it was replacing horses?
- janheidbrink 5y ago
  After reading your post, I was curious how the chicken/egg problem was solved at that time. Searching for "first cars gas stations" on Google, I found https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filling_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filling_station which states "The first drive-in filling station [...] opened to the motoring public [...] on December 1, 1913 [...]. Prior to this, automobile drivers pulled into almost any general or hardware store, or even blacksmith shops in order to fill up their tanks." So gas stations have actually not been built in a large upfront effort, but existing infrastructure was used to distribute gas.
  - Animats 5y ago
    I wonder when the last gas station will close.
fragmede 5y ago
The Tesla Supercharger network is part of the calculation on buying a Tesla vs any other electric car, and was, and is, a huge investment by Tesla. As to bankruptcy, ask the shorts how Tesla is doing.
- fossuser 5y ago
  The supercharger is a counter example. It was built out over time while early adopters had the ability to charge at home. It explicitly didn’t require being built up all at once because people could charge at home.

Dylan16807 5y ago

Has there ever been an example of that failing in history? I'm not sure you can find any historical situation that's close enough to this one to make a good analogy, especially because hydrogen isn't even a good fuel to start with. > Even with lots of money, I think that’s a story of how to go bankrupt. Well on a pure product/market basis they probably never should have made these hydrogen cars at all.

fossuser 5y ago
> Has there ever been an example of that failing in history? Zune, Windows Phone, Betamax, HD-DVD - maybe not perfect analogies, but there are lots of examples of people throwing lots of money at something to try to force widespread adoption and failing because the market doesn’t want it.
- Dylan16807 5y ago
  If betamax and HD-DVD count as failures, then surely VHS and bluray count as successes? The other two don't work as well as infrastructure analogies.
  - fossuser 5y ago
    Arguably Bluray and VHS were already winning in those instances? They'd be the EV to Hydrogen's example, though it's a bit of a strained metaphor. I think it's rare for something without adoption to get taken up just because a larger player tries to use funds to force it to against the way the market is already going. I think Windows Phone is a pretty good example. Hydrogen adoption had a lot of issues of which infrastructure was just (a big) one.
- simondotau 5y ago
  Betamax was not a failure, it just took second place to VHS in the consumer market where rental tapes was the dominant use case. Betamax still had moderate market share and found success in various professional niches. Listing it alongside actual failures like HD-DVD is disingenuous.
eigen 5y ago
> Has there ever been an example of that failing in history? I'm not sure you can find any historical situation that's close enough to this one to make a good analogy, especially because hydrogen isn't even a good fuel to start with. I'd think Iridium satellite phone is a great example of this. Motorola spent $5B to setup a constellation of satellites to sell $3k phones. It failed. turns out spending a ton of money to create a market is a huge gamble and the market can move in unexpected ways. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_satellite_constellation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_satellite_constellatio...

antris 5y ago

> Has there ever been an example of that working in history? Gas stations.

fossuser 5y ago
I don't think that was all at once - and it was replacing horses?
janheidbrink 5y ago
After reading your post, I was curious how the chicken/egg problem was solved at that time. Searching for "first cars gas stations" on Google, I found https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filling_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filling_station which states "The first drive-in filling station [...] opened to the motoring public [...] on December 1, 1913 [...]. Prior to this, automobile drivers pulled into almost any general or hardware store, or even blacksmith shops in order to fill up their tanks." So gas stations have actually not been built in a large upfront effort, but existing infrastructure was used to distribute gas.
- Animats 5y ago
  I wonder when the last gas station will close.

fragmede 5y ago

The Tesla Supercharger network is part of the calculation on buying a Tesla vs any other electric car, and was, and is, a huge investment by Tesla. As to bankruptcy, ask the shorts how Tesla is doing.

fossuser 5y ago
The supercharger is a counter example. It was built out over time while early adopters had the ability to charge at home. It explicitly didn’t require being built up all at once because people could charge at home.