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If this is caused by climate change, we're probably doomed. Suppose there is at least a 50 year latency between human emissions and effect on weather, we're ju

If this is caused by climate change, we're probably doomed. Suppose there is at least a 50 year latency between human emissions and effect on weather, we're just starting to feel the effects of the past. I really hope this is just a statistical effect, but it feels like it isn't. Crossing Fingers.

loopz 5y ago
The graph in the middle of this page shows for last 2k years. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-temperature-graph-1851-2020/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-temperature-graph-18... It's not like we didn't get any warnings or didn't see it coming.
- throwaway888abc 5y ago
  xkcd layman version https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/
madaxe_again 5y ago
It’s not really a latency effect - it’s more of a phase change, as you shift from one chaotic oscillation mode to another, and we’ve finally managed to get enough energy into the system to make it find a new mode. What we have now is the previous mode faltering and wobbling out of its relatively stable phase, into… who knows. Fun thing about chaotic systems - they’re chaotic. You can’t just put the parameters back to where they were and expect the same system you had to reestablish. There’s no “undo”, and modelling rapidly runs out of ideas - our best forecasts are so-so at best. Layer atop that the chaotic systems of humanity, and you’ve got… an interesting interaction. You don’t need the entire world to burn for systems to collapse - you just need to watch the underwriters collapse, as you spend more and more of your GDP on cleaning up the mess and security, and run out of money for anything else. Meanwhile, crops fail, and food becomes increasingly erratic in supply. We’ll turn on each other long before the climate kills us directly. I for one do not expect to die of old age.
- TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
  Of course we "couldn't afford" to fix climate change, so now climate change is going to fix us. No truly intelligent species trashes its own planet and makes it less inhabitable. But here we are.
orwin 5y ago
So, carbon emitted in the low troposphere takes between 15 and 30 years to reach high troposphere. CO2 in low troposphere have small grenhouse effects (some climate denialist use it to justify their ideas). CO2 in high troposphere, however, is a nightmare of a greenhouse gas, and have a half-life of hundreds of years. By the way, methane have a faster effect, but desintegrate quite fast (i think its half-life is around ten year, not sure though, you should check yourselve). However, it turns into CO2 + 2H2O at stratospheric levels, so in the long runs it is not at all better.

loopz 5y ago

The graph in the middle of this page shows for last 2k years. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-temperature-graph-1851-2020/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-temperature-graph-18... It's not like we didn't get any warnings or didn't see it coming.

throwaway888abc 5y ago
xkcd layman version https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/

madaxe_again 5y ago

It’s not really a latency effect - it’s more of a phase change, as you shift from one chaotic oscillation mode to another, and we’ve finally managed to get enough energy into the system to make it find a new mode. What we have now is the previous mode faltering and wobbling out of its relatively stable phase, into… who knows. Fun thing about chaotic systems - they’re chaotic. You can’t just put the parameters back to where they were and expect the same system you had to reestablish. There’s no “undo”, and modelling rapidly runs out of ideas - our best forecasts are so-so at best. Layer atop that the chaotic systems of humanity, and you’ve got… an interesting interaction. You don’t need the entire world to burn for systems to collapse - you just need to watch the underwriters collapse, as you spend more and more of your GDP on cleaning up the mess and security, and run out of money for anything else. Meanwhile, crops fail, and food becomes increasingly erratic in supply. We’ll turn on each other long before the climate kills us directly. I for one do not expect to die of old age.

TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
Of course we "couldn't afford" to fix climate change, so now climate change is going to fix us. No truly intelligent species trashes its own planet and makes it less inhabitable. But here we are.

orwin 5y ago

So, carbon emitted in the low troposphere takes between 15 and 30 years to reach high troposphere. CO2 in low troposphere have small grenhouse effects (some climate denialist use it to justify their ideas). CO2 in high troposphere, however, is a nightmare of a greenhouse gas, and have a half-life of hundreds of years. By the way, methane have a faster effect, but desintegrate quite fast (i think its half-life is around ten year, not sure though, you should check yourselve). However, it turns into CO2 + 2H2O at stratospheric levels, so in the long runs it is not at all better.