4 ms·

Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction

32 points by tartoran 5y ago

fallingfrog 5y ago
Yeah I wouldn’t put too much stock in the world3 model. They have variables like “resources” with no units and they start out the variable at some arbitrary number like 100k. There’s nothing measurable there.
ku-man 5y ago
Jehovah's witnesses were big on end-of-the-world predictions until they realized the only thing they achieved was scorn and ridicule. Hope climatologists and other earth-scientists bend down on alarming climate change calls don't end up like those.
nanoscopic 5y ago
The article is very thin on details, but I don't think dismissing the idea that we are headed for disaster is the proper response. During peak covid wfh period, there has been a clear and obvious difference in the quality of air. This, to me, seems to indicate that the air quality difference is mainly due to the lower amount of people driving. Are we not concerned about returning to a smog filled status quo? I was recently hired by a company and quit 1 week in. Why? Turns out the position was to assist with IT work related to oil fracking. Is everyone collectively pretending that fracking is not damaging to groundwater in a large area? Amazon is globally ( esp. in US though ) driving other businesses ( small, medium, and large ) out of business. Do we really believe that the demise of Toys R Us and Sears have nothing to do with Amazon? What about the demise of shopping malls generally? The last US president is deemed to be a certifiable scumbag by half the US population. We have current articles and video indicating that the current US president is a pedophile ( or at least very fond of touching kids ) We just went through a huge reveal that pedophilia is a big business both in the US and globally. We also went through a lot of recent protests in regard to police and government treatment of us. Are we pretending that society is stable and well? Education in the US is pitiful compared to education globally. It shows no signs, that I see, of improving. It's going downhill. We are okay with this?
shrimp_emoji 5y ago
Can we stop with Guardian articles? It's a tabloid rag that routinely pumps out sensationalist bullshit...
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  It's not that bad IMO but the Guardian sure has rolled way downhill since Snowden.
- uniqueid 5y ago
  Whether The Guardian is good or bad, it's one of the widest known and best selling newspapers in the English-speaking world so asking people here not to post Guardian links is unlikely to work.
France_is_bacon 5y ago
If temperatures keep going the way they have been going, it is dire. Right now, in some areas of Washington and Idaho, crops are yielding half of normal, due to the heat. If such temperatures were to happen across the USA, just for a week or two, and this killed 50% of staple crops, that would be very bad indeed. Prices would shoot up, the poorest would not be able to afford food at all. If this happens multiple years in a row, tens of millions would die in the USA of famine.
xyzzy21 5y ago
Given the time constants (decades to centuries), it's almost certainly too late already! The time to "do something" was back in the 1970s. Of course, the reality is that 1) it's only a problem for humans - nature doesn't care and will be fine, and 2) even losing 99% of humanity is not the end of the species. Some will adapt and thrive. A lot of this comes form "Me the center of the universe" along with "Me living forever" thinking. Neither is a viable axiom for any decision making.
- belter 5y ago
  Lets summon the immortal George Carlin: "...The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles … hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors, worldwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages … And we think some plastic bags and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet isn’t going anywhere. WE are!"
anemoiac 5y ago
Meanwhile, Americans are apparently happier than ever! Source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27949658 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27949658
willio58 5y ago
I'll take an optimistic outlook and say this only looks bleak to us now, but will be a net-postive for human society in the long run. I see it as less of an end-of-the-world event and more as a gradual age of reckoning on a planetary scale. You can deny climate change and social unrest all you want until these things boil over and force changes to occur.

32 points by tartoran 5y ago

Yeah I wouldn’t put too much stock in the world3 model. They have variables like “resources” with no units and they start out the variable at some arbitrary number like 100k. There’s nothing measurable there.

ku-man 5y ago

Jehovah's witnesses were big on end-of-the-world predictions until they realized the only thing they achieved was scorn and ridicule. Hope climatologists and other earth-scientists bend down on alarming climate change calls don't end up like those.

nanoscopic 5y ago

The article is very thin on details, but I don't think dismissing the idea that we are headed for disaster is the proper response. During peak covid wfh period, there has been a clear and obvious difference in the quality of air. This, to me, seems to indicate that the air quality difference is mainly due to the lower amount of people driving. Are we not concerned about returning to a smog filled status quo? I was recently hired by a company and quit 1 week in. Why? Turns out the position was to assist with IT work related to oil fracking. Is everyone collectively pretending that fracking is not damaging to groundwater in a large area? Amazon is globally ( esp. in US though ) driving other businesses ( small, medium, and large ) out of business. Do we really believe that the demise of Toys R Us and Sears have nothing to do with Amazon? What about the demise of shopping malls generally? The last US president is deemed to be a certifiable scumbag by half the US population. We have current articles and video indicating that the current US president is a pedophile ( or at least very fond of touching kids ) We just went through a huge reveal that pedophilia is a big business both in the US and globally. We also went through a lot of recent protests in regard to police and government treatment of us. Are we pretending that society is stable and well? Education in the US is pitiful compared to education globally. It shows no signs, that I see, of improving. It's going downhill. We are okay with this?

shrimp_emoji 5y ago

Can we stop with Guardian articles? It's a tabloid rag that routinely pumps out sensationalist bullshit...

GekkePrutser 5y ago
It's not that bad IMO but the Guardian sure has rolled way downhill since Snowden.
uniqueid 5y ago
Whether The Guardian is good or bad, it's one of the widest known and best selling newspapers in the English-speaking world so asking people here not to post Guardian links is unlikely to work.

France_is_bacon 5y ago

If temperatures keep going the way they have been going, it is dire. Right now, in some areas of Washington and Idaho, crops are yielding half of normal, due to the heat. If such temperatures were to happen across the USA, just for a week or two, and this killed 50% of staple crops, that would be very bad indeed. Prices would shoot up, the poorest would not be able to afford food at all. If this happens multiple years in a row, tens of millions would die in the USA of famine.

xyzzy21 5y ago

Given the time constants (decades to centuries), it's almost certainly too late already! The time to "do something" was back in the 1970s. Of course, the reality is that 1) it's only a problem for humans - nature doesn't care and will be fine, and 2) even losing 99% of humanity is not the end of the species. Some will adapt and thrive. A lot of this comes form "Me the center of the universe" along with "Me living forever" thinking. Neither is a viable axiom for any decision making.

belter 5y ago
Lets summon the immortal George Carlin: "...The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles … hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors, worldwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages … And we think some plastic bags and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet isn’t going anywhere. WE are!"

anemoiac 5y ago

Meanwhile, Americans are apparently happier than ever! Source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27949658 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27949658

willio58 5y ago

I'll take an optimistic outlook and say this only looks bleak to us now, but will be a net-postive for human society in the long run. I see it as less of an end-of-the-world event and more as a gradual age of reckoning on a planetary scale. You can deny climate change and social unrest all you want until these things boil over and force changes to occur.