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Compared to 2020, this year has been amazing for Americans. But I wonder if the happiness will be short lived. Aside from Trump and Covid, the same issues we

Compared to 2020, this year has been amazing for Americans. But I wonder if the happiness will be short lived. Aside from Trump and Covid, the same issues we had in 2019 are lurking below the surface. And it’s entirely possible a Trumpy figure, or even Trump himself, will return to power in 2024.

tbihl 5y ago
I would say not 'possible', but more probable than in 2016.
- RosanaAnaDana 5y ago
  Its been demonstrated as both a viable political strategy and that there is a clear bloc of voters to use to support that strategy. We'll be seeing its hints in 2022 and it will be full bore in 2024. If the holders of the old-guard strategies (McCain 2008/ Biden 2020 style campaigns) want to not get trounced in 2024, they need to make a substantial difference in peoples lives to win that election. Otherwise, 'Trumpian' style campaigns will become the norm, as they'll be show to be more effective at winning elections. Might actually be more riding on 2022/ 2024 than 2016. 2016 proved it possible; these next elections will decide if its reproducible.
  - yerwhat01010 5y ago
    Ron DeSantis will be elected president in 2024. You heard it here first.
dominotw 5y ago
> And it’s entirely possible a Trumpy figure, or even Trump himself, will return to power in 2024. Wouldnt that be good for this particular measure given the scores reached 'new recorded high's in his presidency.
- ChrisLTD 5y ago
  The job market really started to heat up for the first time since the 1990s under Trump, which I think explains that phenomenon. On the flip side, even my friends and family that support Trump were growing tired of the baseline level of anxiety he was causing with his erratic proclamations.
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  - adventured 5y ago
    That's correct. Biden with that job market would have had very strong political approval ratings. The US economy now has a modest, persistent labor deficit due to declining demographics (population growth is largely flat or negative for whites, blacks, hispanics). If you cut immigration much at this point, we'd be seeing a national population decline. Short of an economic catastrophe near-term (whether caused by Covid or other), I would expect Biden will get to enjoy a low unemployment rate in the next 2-3 years as well.

tbihl 5y ago

I would say not 'possible', but more probable than in 2016.

RosanaAnaDana 5y ago
Its been demonstrated as both a viable political strategy and that there is a clear bloc of voters to use to support that strategy. We'll be seeing its hints in 2022 and it will be full bore in 2024. If the holders of the old-guard strategies (McCain 2008/ Biden 2020 style campaigns) want to not get trounced in 2024, they need to make a substantial difference in peoples lives to win that election. Otherwise, 'Trumpian' style campaigns will become the norm, as they'll be show to be more effective at winning elections. Might actually be more riding on 2022/ 2024 than 2016. 2016 proved it possible; these next elections will decide if its reproducible.
- yerwhat01010 5y ago
  Ron DeSantis will be elected president in 2024. You heard it here first.

dominotw 5y ago

> And it’s entirely possible a Trumpy figure, or even Trump himself, will return to power in 2024. Wouldnt that be good for this particular measure given the scores reached 'new recorded high's in his presidency.

ChrisLTD 5y ago
The job market really started to heat up for the first time since the 1990s under Trump, which I think explains that phenomenon. On the flip side, even my friends and family that support Trump were growing tired of the baseline level of anxiety he was causing with his erratic proclamations.
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- deleted 5y ago
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- adventured 5y ago
  That's correct. Biden with that job market would have had very strong political approval ratings. The US economy now has a modest, persistent labor deficit due to declining demographics (population growth is largely flat or negative for whites, blacks, hispanics). If you cut immigration much at this point, we'd be seeing a national population decline. Short of an economic catastrophe near-term (whether caused by Covid or other), I would expect Biden will get to enjoy a low unemployment rate in the next 2-3 years as well.