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I disagree with you on most of this. Looking at the all cause mortality graphs for the US is pretty sobering, and comparing to the relatively much more flat all

I disagree with you on most of this. Looking at the all cause mortality graphs for the US is pretty sobering, and comparing to the relatively much more flat all cause mortality graph for australia is all the reason i need to be pro lockdown. It seems pretty clear that lockdowns work, and also that governments dont want to be locked down any longer than necessary- because it is bad for the economy. But hospitals being over capacity like in the UK or india is also pretty bad, and i see healthcare as being one of the pillars of civilisation. I do see some 'cleanliness theatre', but the thing about r values is that little things help a lot. Washing hands regularly, wearing a mask. I havnt a cold in 18 months, which is pretty unheard of for me, because everyone is taking a bit more care. If only covid were 'only' as contagious as the cold, we probably would have beaten it already.

isaacremuant 5y ago
> I disagree with you on most of this. Looking at the all cause mortality graphs for the US is pretty sobering, and comparing to the relatively much more flat all cause mortality graph for australia is all the reason i need to be pro lockdown. You're literally doing what I said. You're using the one metric to justify never ending lockdowns. Because lockdowns Haven't worked or we wouldn't be having them again in Australia. Unless life needs to be continuously cycled lockdowns. Which is preposterous and something many of us warned against. There's no exit strategy out of hygiene theater. Only the blame game. As for your comment about govs having the best intentions. That's clearly false. They've shown they care about prolonging their political positions so that trumps anything. Which is why protests that are politically convenient can go ahead while those that go against lockdowns are attacked in many ways. Healthcare in Ireland, for example, has always been bad and "over capacity". Every flu season. That hasn't changed. They haven't invested in healthcare really. Your lockdown proposal will only mean forever lockdowns and, now, a 2 tier society where those who don't comply with every rule get blamed while their businesses and lives get destroyed and politicians are exempt from those rules. Your anecdotes about colds are ridiculous. I haven't either and I haven't been a germophobe like you seem to now. I've travelled and I've exercised with people and met people against the fascist regulations and will keep doing so. The problem is that, even if I manage to "save myself by moving around" from this insane apartheid and fascist state of things, in the name of the greater good, millions will suffer while the laptop hackernews socially awkward class stays at home with their back yards and their online yoga. You've had 16 months of screwing people out of choice to live how they see fit. Now you'll attack anyone who doesn't yield Every bit of the way including medical procedures. Now 100% vaccination rate seems to be the goal as to why you can't have freedoms back. It's insane. It's wrong. It's wrong in 1930 levels of wrong. Enough is enough. /Rant
- unlikelymordant 5y ago
  > Because lockdowns Haven't worked or we wouldn't be having them again in Australia. But australia has beat many flare ups by locking down, right back to 0. The fact it keeps coming back from countries that dont lock down is hardly proof lockdowns never work. The thing about r values is it doesnt need everybody to be washing their hands, just enough to break the chain. If the person who would have infected you never caught it, then you wont get it, and so on. >You're literally doing what I said. You're using the one metric to justify never ending lockdowns Total deaths? Yeah im using that metric. A lot of people have died, australias response shows they died unnecessarily.
murgindrag 5y ago
> If only covid were 'only' as contagious as the cold, we probably would have beaten it already Nope. When numbers go down, we relax. When hospitals fill up, we lock down. It doesn't matter how contagious COVID is. It will remain at endemic levels forever, on the path we're on. We've turned a billion dollar problem into a multi-trillion dollar one in February 2020. Now, we're turning it into a tens-of-trillions-of-dollars problem. 100% N95-equivalent masks. 100% vaccination. 6 foot distancing whenever possible. Outdoors whenever possible. That would still get COVID today, but it might not in a year. Delta and Gamma are concerning, and we'll only see more mutations, and ones better able to jump our mitigation measures.
- unlikelymordant 5y ago
  We beat sars-1 just fine, and mers, mainly by quarantining infected. Sars-1 literally no longer exists. This is very strong proof that we would have beat covid too, if it were less contagious.
  - murgindrag 5y ago
    I think it's a better example of random chance. We had a series of diseases. We didn't heed that as a warning. One eventually (and predictably) slipped out.

isaacremuant 5y ago

> I disagree with you on most of this. Looking at the all cause mortality graphs for the US is pretty sobering, and comparing to the relatively much more flat all cause mortality graph for australia is all the reason i need to be pro lockdown. You're literally doing what I said. You're using the one metric to justify never ending lockdowns. Because lockdowns Haven't worked or we wouldn't be having them again in Australia. Unless life needs to be continuously cycled lockdowns. Which is preposterous and something many of us warned against. There's no exit strategy out of hygiene theater. Only the blame game. As for your comment about govs having the best intentions. That's clearly false. They've shown they care about prolonging their political positions so that trumps anything. Which is why protests that are politically convenient can go ahead while those that go against lockdowns are attacked in many ways. Healthcare in Ireland, for example, has always been bad and "over capacity". Every flu season. That hasn't changed. They haven't invested in healthcare really. Your lockdown proposal will only mean forever lockdowns and, now, a 2 tier society where those who don't comply with every rule get blamed while their businesses and lives get destroyed and politicians are exempt from those rules. Your anecdotes about colds are ridiculous. I haven't either and I haven't been a germophobe like you seem to now. I've travelled and I've exercised with people and met people against the fascist regulations and will keep doing so. The problem is that, even if I manage to "save myself by moving around" from this insane apartheid and fascist state of things, in the name of the greater good, millions will suffer while the laptop hackernews socially awkward class stays at home with their back yards and their online yoga. You've had 16 months of screwing people out of choice to live how they see fit. Now you'll attack anyone who doesn't yield Every bit of the way including medical procedures. Now 100% vaccination rate seems to be the goal as to why you can't have freedoms back. It's insane. It's wrong. It's wrong in 1930 levels of wrong. Enough is enough. /Rant

unlikelymordant 5y ago
> Because lockdowns Haven't worked or we wouldn't be having them again in Australia. But australia has beat many flare ups by locking down, right back to 0. The fact it keeps coming back from countries that dont lock down is hardly proof lockdowns never work. The thing about r values is it doesnt need everybody to be washing their hands, just enough to break the chain. If the person who would have infected you never caught it, then you wont get it, and so on. >You're literally doing what I said. You're using the one metric to justify never ending lockdowns Total deaths? Yeah im using that metric. A lot of people have died, australias response shows they died unnecessarily.

murgindrag 5y ago

> If only covid were 'only' as contagious as the cold, we probably would have beaten it already Nope. When numbers go down, we relax. When hospitals fill up, we lock down. It doesn't matter how contagious COVID is. It will remain at endemic levels forever, on the path we're on. We've turned a billion dollar problem into a multi-trillion dollar one in February 2020. Now, we're turning it into a tens-of-trillions-of-dollars problem. 100% N95-equivalent masks. 100% vaccination. 6 foot distancing whenever possible. Outdoors whenever possible. That would still get COVID today, but it might not in a year. Delta and Gamma are concerning, and we'll only see more mutations, and ones better able to jump our mitigation measures.

unlikelymordant 5y ago
We beat sars-1 just fine, and mers, mainly by quarantining infected. Sars-1 literally no longer exists. This is very strong proof that we would have beat covid too, if it were less contagious.
- murgindrag 5y ago
  I think it's a better example of random chance. We had a series of diseases. We didn't heed that as a warning. One eventually (and predictably) slipped out.