10 ms·

Canada and northern part of the US will be fine (north of the mason dixon line). Places like Albany, NY, or Minesota, or most of Canada, appart from the occasi

Canada and northern part of the US will be fine (north of the mason dixon line). Places like Albany, NY, or Minesota, or most of Canada, appart from the occasional crazy swings, are going to be more lovely places to live, with slightly milder winters. The southern part is toast, both from water level rises, and lack of fresh water. In this country, the ones that are going to be the most affected by global warming, seem like to care the less. PS: Canada has a target goal to reach 100mil by 2100. They know they are going to be a more milder place to live overall (with the crazy swing), and there will be much more areas open for human habitation. That's why they are increasing their immigration quotas. https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/ https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/

danans 5y ago
> In this country, the ones that are going to be the most affected by global warming, seem like to care the less. This is ignoring the fact that if the southern coastal US is toast the northern areas are going to have a climate refugee crisis on their hands.
- ardit33 5y ago
  That's true. We have already been dealing with it (the last central american immigrant surge), and NYC had a huge influx of comers from Porto Rico after the last two hurricanes. Dealing with it is still easier than having your place underwater like 1/3 of Florida might be one day. Places like NYC have to shore up low land areas, but it is still in much better shape than either Florida, Arizona, Southern CA (lack of fresh water, and fires). Global warming is really going to hit places differently. There is a huge difference between having to deal with the occasional heat wave, or flood, and with having to deal with your whole area being permanently under-water, or complete lack of drinking water.
- jeffbee 5y ago
  Many coastal people seem to assume that the federal government will bail them out in great abundance, which, let's face it, is probably true.
  - danans 5y ago
    > bail them out in great abundance It's questionable whether it will even be possible to bail them out - either literally or financially.
lostlogin 5y ago
> Places like Albany, NY, or Minesota, or most of Canada, appart from the occasional crazy swings, are going to be more lovely places to live This may have been true a few hundred years ago, but not now. Where do their families live? What do they they do for work, food, resources and recreation? Who will they trade with? Where will they get consumer goods?
rtutz 5y ago
Even if that would apply, the people won’t stay in the south for very long if it becomes impossible to live there. I don’t think there will be a secret enclave that can just ignore the impact of global warming.
mulmen 5y ago
I'm not sure that they care less or they are just too terrified to actually think about it.
cwp 5y ago
Tell that to the residents of Lytton.
- nyx 5y ago
  Right? It hit 116°F in Portland, Oregon last month, hotter than the record highs in such places as Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, and downtown LA. The notion that there's a climate change safe zone is an optimistic one, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of supporting evidence.
- ardit33 5y ago
  Agree on that part. If you are on a heat bowl area, you will have to deal with it, and getting the short end of the stick.
Applejinx 5y ago
No, because climate is a chaotic system and nothing, nowhere, will be 'slightly milder'. You are mistaken. It ain't about a minor shift in baseline plus sea-level changing, though sea-level changing is still a thing. I'm IN the Northeast, not far from Albany. The crazy swings are less and less occasional and that's a trend that continues to escalate. I consider the location pretty much optimal. That's a far cry from 'fine', and the distinction is important.
- wrs 5y ago
  Seattle is sometimes pointed to as a “climate sanctuary”. A couple of weeks ago it was 108° here in Seattle. Let me repeat that: a hundred and eight degrees. In Seattle. Our reaction as a city: air conditioning installation is booked out for months.
  - dillon 5y ago
    To be fair, Seattle's electric grid has been on all sustainable energy for a while now. Seattle is one of the greenest city in the U.S. On top of that, any person living in King County is able to pay a little bit extra to opt into 100% sustainable energy. The reaction from Seattle isn't terribly illogical. EDIT: Should mention the city is NOT carbon neutral by any means. We still have buses running on gas.
    - wrs 5y ago
      True, we are fortunate we can avoid hard choices on power source up here (lots of hydro). But what I meant to highlight was that our focus tends to be on solving our local short-term climate problems, just like everybody else.
  - jandrewrogers 5y ago
    FWIW, most of the weather modeling people (e.g. Cliff Mass) are asserting that the PNW heat wave was more of a Black Swan event caused by a near perfect storm of ordinary weather factors that had little to do with climate change. The contribution of climate change to this specific event was marginal at best, this type of heat wave has always been possible in principle.
lmilcin 5y ago
Just wait for all migrants from places that will be becoming uninhabitable.
- wait_a_minute 5y ago
  When is this projected to happen, realistically? 100 years from now?
  - mrDmrTmrJ 5y ago
    Realistically? 2011. As get global instability every time food prices spike from drought and commodities price spikes. That time it kicked off the Arab spring & Syrian civil war. Look at immigration into Europe across the Med. from North Africa. Global food prices are spiking now and we're also seeing protests around the globe. The quote is "Society sits 2 meals and 24 hours from anarchy." So any place there's drought or crop failure we'll see a lot of choas.
    - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
      Huh, curious that there hasn't been nationwide Covid-economic-slowdown-related anarchies yet, or maybe I'm not paying attention? In places like India and Indonesia there's currently severe economic slowdown and not enough government intervention. A lot of Covid skeptics call it a plandemic, i.e. manufactured crisis, I don't believe it myself, but if I were running a government I would be asking if we should have a permanent state of emergency (like in the book 1984) to prevent societal collapse...
  - gibrown 5y ago
    It is already happening. Just searching a bit… Katrina displaced 1-1.5m immediately and about 200k never returned. The upper estimates for 2050 is 1.2 billion displaced world wide.
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    Drought -> Farmers unable to farm in Syrian countryside -> they move to the cities to try to earn money -> social and political instability -> civil war -> European refugee crisis Also, 2010 Russian forest fires[1] -> grain prices went up -> food prices went up -> hunger for the poor in Middle East -> Arab Spring (ah, remember when Twitter was saving the world?) -> European refugee crisis https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/world/europe/06russia.html https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/world/europe/06russia.htm...
revscat 5y ago
Which is irrelevant. Increasing crop failures will mean that even if you migrate to somewhere that is currently cool, there won't be enough food to feed everyone.
kingaillas 5y ago
Climate change is more than just how mild the winters will become. It is also different weather patterns like heavy rainstorms and the resulting floods. Cologne Germany is about 50 degrees north and the surrounding areas were hit hard. Zhengzhou China is about 34 degrees north and was also hit hard by flooding. That further south than the Mason Dixon line... more like the latitude of Raleigh, North Carolina. So sure, lovely to live if you guard against constant potential storms and floods, omni-present ground water, the possibility of several days in a row of 100+ F temps, etc.
cobookman 5y ago
Lack of fresh water in the US is a solvable issue. We have oceans all around us and the US has the know-how to ship fresh, desalinated water from the coast to middle america.
- orwin 5y ago
  Not for agricultural use in the Midwest, that the current issue. I mean, this is an issue right now, not in 20 years. BTW, this issue is solvable if everyone agree that meat should be rationned: no corn and some GMO wheat to produce carbs for human consumption only, a lot more vegetables and more forestry could do the trick.
  - cobookman 5y ago
    US uses 118B gallons of water/day in agricultural usage. Desal costs about 2k/acre-foot (325,851 gallons). That's ~724MM/day in water costs or 264B/year for water. US GDP is 21 Trillion. As cost of water increases, conservation becomes more economical. Say all agriculture switches to hydroponics as a result. Hydroponics uses 1/10th the water of traditional methods...so we're talking now just 26B/year of water costs. In 2017 US farms spent 359B on operations. Food will become more expensive, but overall we'll be fine.
8note 5y ago
Parts of Canada, sure. I imagine places like Newfoundland not changing much. The north will see big changes from permafrost melting, the west will see more smoke, more floods, and water shortages as the glacier melt is replaced by rain. BC will be on fire more, and the forests will die off / need to be replanted with different species of trees
- ip26 5y ago
  I imagine places like Newfoundland not changing much. Alaska, at least, is allegedly one of the most rapidly warming places on the planet.
john_moscow 5y ago
I don't think the climate change will be solved by laypeople having shorter showers, sitting in tiny condos without air conditioning and buying groceries with the big word "SUSTAINABLE" all over the packaging. Much more realistically, just like COVID-19 made mRNA commercially viable, actual decrease in quality of life from the climate change will pave the road to engineered carbon-capturing plants, or some smart sun-reflecting particles, or something else. So if you want to help solve climate change, go study biotechnology and get serious about it. Making your own life arbitrarily uncomfortable and finding a meaning of life in pressuring peers to follow suit won't move the needle in a statistically significant way.
titzer 5y ago
> Canada and northern part of the US will be fine (north of the mason dixon line). I highly doubt that, given the heat we saw in the PNW and Canada this past month, but even if true, the 3C is average over the planet. So other places in the world will have to be even more than 3C for that to be the average. They aren't gonna like that one bit.
- wahern 5y ago
  Based on current climate models and global average temperatures (1.2C above pre-industrial baseline), the recent PNW heat wave was judged to be a 1-in-1000 year event. The same models suggest a further 0.8C increase would make such a heat wave a 1-in-10 year event or greater. Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/preliminary-analysis-concludes-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-was-1000-year https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/prelimin...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
moistly 5y ago
Dude, it’s been about three months since my part of Canada received rain. We have been above 30°C for over a month. For a week, we were hitting 45°C and it looks like it’ll happen again next month. We are in drought conditions and there are ungodly huge wildfires all around us. We’ve got crop failures. We are NOT fine. Good gods, no, we are not fine at all.

danans 5y ago

> In this country, the ones that are going to be the most affected by global warming, seem like to care the less. This is ignoring the fact that if the southern coastal US is toast the northern areas are going to have a climate refugee crisis on their hands.

ardit33 5y ago
That's true. We have already been dealing with it (the last central american immigrant surge), and NYC had a huge influx of comers from Porto Rico after the last two hurricanes. Dealing with it is still easier than having your place underwater like 1/3 of Florida might be one day. Places like NYC have to shore up low land areas, but it is still in much better shape than either Florida, Arizona, Southern CA (lack of fresh water, and fires). Global warming is really going to hit places differently. There is a huge difference between having to deal with the occasional heat wave, or flood, and with having to deal with your whole area being permanently under-water, or complete lack of drinking water.
jeffbee 5y ago
Many coastal people seem to assume that the federal government will bail them out in great abundance, which, let's face it, is probably true.
- danans 5y ago
  > bail them out in great abundance It's questionable whether it will even be possible to bail them out - either literally or financially.

lostlogin 5y ago

> Places like Albany, NY, or Minesota, or most of Canada, appart from the occasional crazy swings, are going to be more lovely places to live This may have been true a few hundred years ago, but not now. Where do their families live? What do they they do for work, food, resources and recreation? Who will they trade with? Where will they get consumer goods?

rtutz 5y ago

Even if that would apply, the people won’t stay in the south for very long if it becomes impossible to live there. I don’t think there will be a secret enclave that can just ignore the impact of global warming.

mulmen 5y ago

I'm not sure that they care less or they are just too terrified to actually think about it.

cwp 5y ago

Tell that to the residents of Lytton.

nyx 5y ago
Right? It hit 116°F in Portland, Oregon last month, hotter than the record highs in such places as Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, and downtown LA. The notion that there's a climate change safe zone is an optimistic one, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of supporting evidence.
ardit33 5y ago
Agree on that part. If you are on a heat bowl area, you will have to deal with it, and getting the short end of the stick.

Applejinx 5y ago

No, because climate is a chaotic system and nothing, nowhere, will be 'slightly milder'. You are mistaken. It ain't about a minor shift in baseline plus sea-level changing, though sea-level changing is still a thing. I'm IN the Northeast, not far from Albany. The crazy swings are less and less occasional and that's a trend that continues to escalate. I consider the location pretty much optimal. That's a far cry from 'fine', and the distinction is important.

wrs 5y ago
Seattle is sometimes pointed to as a “climate sanctuary”. A couple of weeks ago it was 108° here in Seattle. Let me repeat that: a hundred and eight degrees. In Seattle. Our reaction as a city: air conditioning installation is booked out for months.
- dillon 5y ago
  To be fair, Seattle's electric grid has been on all sustainable energy for a while now. Seattle is one of the greenest city in the U.S. On top of that, any person living in King County is able to pay a little bit extra to opt into 100% sustainable energy. The reaction from Seattle isn't terribly illogical. EDIT: Should mention the city is NOT carbon neutral by any means. We still have buses running on gas.
  - wrs 5y ago
    True, we are fortunate we can avoid hard choices on power source up here (lots of hydro). But what I meant to highlight was that our focus tends to be on solving our local short-term climate problems, just like everybody else.
- jandrewrogers 5y ago
  FWIW, most of the weather modeling people (e.g. Cliff Mass) are asserting that the PNW heat wave was more of a Black Swan event caused by a near perfect storm of ordinary weather factors that had little to do with climate change. The contribution of climate change to this specific event was marginal at best, this type of heat wave has always been possible in principle.

lmilcin 5y ago

Just wait for all migrants from places that will be becoming uninhabitable.

wait_a_minute 5y ago
When is this projected to happen, realistically? 100 years from now?
- mrDmrTmrJ 5y ago
  Realistically? 2011. As get global instability every time food prices spike from drought and commodities price spikes. That time it kicked off the Arab spring & Syrian civil war. Look at immigration into Europe across the Med. from North Africa. Global food prices are spiking now and we're also seeing protests around the globe. The quote is "Society sits 2 meals and 24 hours from anarchy." So any place there's drought or crop failure we'll see a lot of choas.
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    Huh, curious that there hasn't been nationwide Covid-economic-slowdown-related anarchies yet, or maybe I'm not paying attention? In places like India and Indonesia there's currently severe economic slowdown and not enough government intervention. A lot of Covid skeptics call it a plandemic, i.e. manufactured crisis, I don't believe it myself, but if I were running a government I would be asking if we should have a permanent state of emergency (like in the book 1984) to prevent societal collapse...
- gibrown 5y ago
  It is already happening. Just searching a bit… Katrina displaced 1-1.5m immediately and about 200k never returned. The upper estimates for 2050 is 1.2 billion displaced world wide.
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  Drought -> Farmers unable to farm in Syrian countryside -> they move to the cities to try to earn money -> social and political instability -> civil war -> European refugee crisis Also, 2010 Russian forest fires[1] -> grain prices went up -> food prices went up -> hunger for the poor in Middle East -> Arab Spring (ah, remember when Twitter was saving the world?) -> European refugee crisis https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/world/europe/06russia.html https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/world/europe/06russia.htm...

revscat 5y ago

Which is irrelevant. Increasing crop failures will mean that even if you migrate to somewhere that is currently cool, there won't be enough food to feed everyone.

kingaillas 5y ago

Climate change is more than just how mild the winters will become. It is also different weather patterns like heavy rainstorms and the resulting floods. Cologne Germany is about 50 degrees north and the surrounding areas were hit hard. Zhengzhou China is about 34 degrees north and was also hit hard by flooding. That further south than the Mason Dixon line... more like the latitude of Raleigh, North Carolina. So sure, lovely to live if you guard against constant potential storms and floods, omni-present ground water, the possibility of several days in a row of 100+ F temps, etc.

cobookman 5y ago

Lack of fresh water in the US is a solvable issue. We have oceans all around us and the US has the know-how to ship fresh, desalinated water from the coast to middle america.

orwin 5y ago
Not for agricultural use in the Midwest, that the current issue. I mean, this is an issue right now, not in 20 years. BTW, this issue is solvable if everyone agree that meat should be rationned: no corn and some GMO wheat to produce carbs for human consumption only, a lot more vegetables and more forestry could do the trick.
- cobookman 5y ago
  US uses 118B gallons of water/day in agricultural usage. Desal costs about 2k/acre-foot (325,851 gallons). That's ~724MM/day in water costs or 264B/year for water. US GDP is 21 Trillion. As cost of water increases, conservation becomes more economical. Say all agriculture switches to hydroponics as a result. Hydroponics uses 1/10th the water of traditional methods...so we're talking now just 26B/year of water costs. In 2017 US farms spent 359B on operations. Food will become more expensive, but overall we'll be fine.

8note 5y ago

Parts of Canada, sure. I imagine places like Newfoundland not changing much. The north will see big changes from permafrost melting, the west will see more smoke, more floods, and water shortages as the glacier melt is replaced by rain. BC will be on fire more, and the forests will die off / need to be replanted with different species of trees

ip26 5y ago
I imagine places like Newfoundland not changing much. Alaska, at least, is allegedly one of the most rapidly warming places on the planet.

john_moscow 5y ago

I don't think the climate change will be solved by laypeople having shorter showers, sitting in tiny condos without air conditioning and buying groceries with the big word "SUSTAINABLE" all over the packaging. Much more realistically, just like COVID-19 made mRNA commercially viable, actual decrease in quality of life from the climate change will pave the road to engineered carbon-capturing plants, or some smart sun-reflecting particles, or something else. So if you want to help solve climate change, go study biotechnology and get serious about it. Making your own life arbitrarily uncomfortable and finding a meaning of life in pressuring peers to follow suit won't move the needle in a statistically significant way.

titzer 5y ago

> Canada and northern part of the US will be fine (north of the mason dixon line). I highly doubt that, given the heat we saw in the PNW and Canada this past month, but even if true, the 3C is average over the planet. So other places in the world will have to be even more than 3C for that to be the average. They aren't gonna like that one bit.

wahern 5y ago
Based on current climate models and global average temperatures (1.2C above pre-industrial baseline), the recent PNW heat wave was judged to be a 1-in-1000 year event. The same models suggest a further 0.8C increase would make such a heat wave a 1-in-10 year event or greater. Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/preliminary-analysis-concludes-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-was-1000-year https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/prelimin...

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

moistly 5y ago

Dude, it’s been about three months since my part of Canada received rain. We have been above 30°C for over a month. For a week, we were hitting 45°C and it looks like it’ll happen again next month. We are in drought conditions and there are ungodly huge wildfires all around us. We’ve got crop failures. We are NOT fine. Good gods, no, we are not fine at all.