5 ms·

> Do you think AI would get this right? The answer is an obvious no. Today? Sure. But really one of the most plausible ways in which AI could be more effectiv

by ska 5y ago

> Do you think AI would get this right? The answer is an obvious no. Today? Sure. But really one of the most plausible ways in which AI could be more effective than human clinicians is in rare diseases. It assumes a massive input of data of course, but clinicians are biased against this in ways that are hard to do anything effective against. This is why so many people with rare conditions spend years before getting a proper diagnosis.

nradov 5y ago
Getting that data is an extremely hard problem. In general the data is low quality, incomplete, poorly coded, and full of errors. Cleansing the data to the point where it could be used to train a useful decision support algorithm would require a tremendous amount of human labor by expert clinicians. This isn't something that can be automated.
- ska 5y ago
  > [...] to the point where it could be used to train [...] require a tremendous amount of human labor by expert clinician. This is how it has been done for decades at this point (at least in some systems), and yes it is expensive. To really tackle things like above rare disease interactions, it would require at least an order of magnitude change, this is at least plausible; but would require some systemic changes.
- Verdex 5y ago
  Okay ... how do doctors (individually or as a whole) get better at doctoring? Either we're saying they look over the data OR we're saying that they somehow just mystically know better as time goes on. Who cares if it turns out that we can't automate the formation of the AI. But we're doing the same work to continually educate and improve doctors already. At least with the AI it won't die of old age once it starts to get really good at what it's doing. And maybe it turns out that the best that AI can do is duplicate a middle level doctor who isn't really interested in self improvement. If that's the case then at least everyone can get cheap and fast health care that's the same frustrating quality that we're stuck with now. Only with the AI you can say that it's dumb and everyone will believe you. With a doctor you have to fight past "impugning the reputation of the profession" in order to get a real diagnosis.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Doctors are getting better at doctoring mostly through simple things like checklists and evidence-based medicine treatment guidelines. Those reduce variance and the risk of error. Improved interoperability between clinical systems also has potential to reduce errors by making sure all members of a patient's care team have complete access to the patient's entire record. Diagnosis isn't particularly difficult or time consuming in most routine cases after gathering the necessary data. If you see a jagged line on the x-ray then the patient has a fractured bone. If the A1c level is 7.5% then the patient has diabetes. Etc. Improving diagnostic accuracy will help in rare cases and is worth doing, but that won't have much impact on the health care system as a whole.
    - Verdex 5y ago
      I don't think I understand your argument. You at first appear to say that gathering data and automating things is hard and might not be possible. Then here you're saying that checklists, evidence-based guidelines, and improved interoperability between systems are all the source of doctor improvements. These are all arguably forms of AI that have been created through data gathering. Yes, a checklist is a very boring AI, but it's taking some knowledge out of the heads of a group of people and then making it available for someone else to use. The missing step seems to be that instead of having a person look at a piece of paper and execute the checklist and evidenced based treatment, having a computer do it.
      - nradov 5y ago
        You're missing the point. There's no cost effective way to provide the computer with the complete, high quality data necessary to execute the checklists.
        Verdex 5y ago
        I hope I can be forgiven for missing the point when this is the first time (as far as I can tell ... perhaps you said something in a different thread) you've mentioned cost. At first it was "this cannot be automated". Then it was "well it happened, but it's okay because it's written down on paper and not put in a computer". Now we're talking about cost. Cost where (at least in the USA) going to the ER for a broken bone can cost thousands of dollars. Cost where (at least in the USA) a birth (something people from all walks of life go through) has a minimum of the patient spending $10K and regularly gets into the $50K and up range (not even talking about ultrasounds etc leading into the birth). I cannot believe that we're really talking about data collection being too expensive for the medical industry. Maybe nobody wants to be the person to pick up the bill. But it's going to be a rounding error of a rounding error compared to all the other money that goes through that industry.
- disabled 5y ago
  Correct and thank you. Usually me and you don't agree on healthcare matters, but on this, at least we do. Your response is on point, and is exactly the issue.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

by ska 5y ago

nradov 5y ago

Getting that data is an extremely hard problem. In general the data is low quality, incomplete, poorly coded, and full of errors. Cleansing the data to the point where it could be used to train a useful decision support algorithm would require a tremendous amount of human labor by expert clinicians. This isn't something that can be automated.

ska 5y ago
> [...] to the point where it could be used to train [...] require a tremendous amount of human labor by expert clinician. This is how it has been done for decades at this point (at least in some systems), and yes it is expensive. To really tackle things like above rare disease interactions, it would require at least an order of magnitude change, this is at least plausible; but would require some systemic changes.
Verdex 5y ago
Okay ... how do doctors (individually or as a whole) get better at doctoring? Either we're saying they look over the data OR we're saying that they somehow just mystically know better as time goes on. Who cares if it turns out that we can't automate the formation of the AI. But we're doing the same work to continually educate and improve doctors already. At least with the AI it won't die of old age once it starts to get really good at what it's doing. And maybe it turns out that the best that AI can do is duplicate a middle level doctor who isn't really interested in self improvement. If that's the case then at least everyone can get cheap and fast health care that's the same frustrating quality that we're stuck with now. Only with the AI you can say that it's dumb and everyone will believe you. With a doctor you have to fight past "impugning the reputation of the profession" in order to get a real diagnosis.
- nradov 5y ago
  Doctors are getting better at doctoring mostly through simple things like checklists and evidence-based medicine treatment guidelines. Those reduce variance and the risk of error. Improved interoperability between clinical systems also has potential to reduce errors by making sure all members of a patient's care team have complete access to the patient's entire record. Diagnosis isn't particularly difficult or time consuming in most routine cases after gathering the necessary data. If you see a jagged line on the x-ray then the patient has a fractured bone. If the A1c level is 7.5% then the patient has diabetes. Etc. Improving diagnostic accuracy will help in rare cases and is worth doing, but that won't have much impact on the health care system as a whole.
  - Verdex 5y ago
    I don't think I understand your argument. You at first appear to say that gathering data and automating things is hard and might not be possible. Then here you're saying that checklists, evidence-based guidelines, and improved interoperability between systems are all the source of doctor improvements. These are all arguably forms of AI that have been created through data gathering. Yes, a checklist is a very boring AI, but it's taking some knowledge out of the heads of a group of people and then making it available for someone else to use. The missing step seems to be that instead of having a person look at a piece of paper and execute the checklist and evidenced based treatment, having a computer do it.
    - nradov 5y ago
      You're missing the point. There's no cost effective way to provide the computer with the complete, high quality data necessary to execute the checklists.
      - Verdex 5y ago
        I hope I can be forgiven for missing the point when this is the first time (as far as I can tell ... perhaps you said something in a different thread) you've mentioned cost. At first it was "this cannot be automated". Then it was "well it happened, but it's okay because it's written down on paper and not put in a computer". Now we're talking about cost. Cost where (at least in the USA) going to the ER for a broken bone can cost thousands of dollars. Cost where (at least in the USA) a birth (something people from all walks of life go through) has a minimum of the patient spending $10K and regularly gets into the $50K and up range (not even talking about ultrasounds etc leading into the birth). I cannot believe that we're really talking about data collection being too expensive for the medical industry. Maybe nobody wants to be the person to pick up the bill. But it's going to be a rounding error of a rounding error compared to all the other money that goes through that industry.
disabled 5y ago
Correct and thank you. Usually me and you don't agree on healthcare matters, but on this, at least we do. Your response is on point, and is exactly the issue.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]