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I think most of us in software engineering assume the probability distribution has a fat tail. I've seen some authors name this the "blowup factor". For instanc
by ngrilly 5y ago
I think most of us in software engineering assume the probability distribution has a fat tail. I've seen some authors name this the "blowup factor". For instance, your most likely estimation is 10 days, best case is 5 days, and worst case is 30 days. I think adding means is still meaningful (see central limit theorem and law of large numbers).
- marcosdumay 5y agoIt's exactly the central limit theorem that breaks for fat tailed distribution. Some fat tail distributions also break the law of large numbers, but I don't think task size estimation is this flawed.