5 ms·

Wouldn't the counterpoint be that those civilizations like us that do not obscure their location are quickly eradicated by others in the forest? So the forest a

Wouldn't the counterpoint be that those civilizations like us that do not obscure their location are quickly eradicated by others in the forest? So the forest also acts like a filter for those that are not careful enough.

Causality1 5y ago
I don't see there being that big a technological leap between annihilating another civilization and starting a colony in another star system. If you're the type of civilization that would be interested in killing a competitor off you're probably the type that's going to colonize and fill the entire galaxy in a few million years. We evolved, so that hasn't happened, in a galaxy thirteen billion years old. I suspect we're alone.
- syops 5y ago
  The energy requirement to send a life destroying device to a far away planet might be much less than the energy requirement to send colonizers. That may be the big leap so to speak.
  - Causality1 5y ago
    If you can send a weapon you can probably send some kind of Von Neumann probe with genetic and cultural data to create a seed colony
    - syops 5y ago
      I don’t see why that necessarily follows and I don’t see why one would want to send such a probe. It does nothing for me if I can send a probe to start humanity on another planet when I have no connection to said planet and won’t be able to see the result or have a connection to that colony. In the dark forest view one would never seed such a colony as they will quickly become competitors.
      - Causality1 5y ago
        You don't think species chauvinism is a thing? If I had to lose an interstellar war and be wiped out I'd prefer it to be a human offshoot doing it. At least that way my species survives.
        syops 5y ago
        In the dark forest view it’s best to just kill off the opponent and not replace them with a potential new opponent.
    - wonderwonder 5y ago
      Not really, the weapon does not need to slow down. If its just a big enough chunk of rock that is aimed at a planet and it speeds up the whole way reaching some impressive fraction of the speed of light before impact, the only hard part is the math to aim it. We are reasonably close now to being able to strap some engines on an chunk of rock and send it on its way randomly in one direction. We are very far away from being able to start a seed colony in another solar system.
Mordisquitos 5y ago
I don't see that as a counterpoint, but more of a post hoc theory. How could the eradicators detect and destroy their victims before we detected any signal at all from the victims? And why haven't the eradicators come for us yet? Of course, this could always be explained by the distances involved and the limitations of light speed, but that would make the Dark Forest hypothesis redundant as an explanation as to why we haven't yet detected any alien civilisation(s).
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  I think what would explain this is our very limited timespan when we started listening to universe. There might have been 10 strong signals in last 2000 years, but last one could have happened around the time US declared independence. And 2000 years is nothing timewise on scale of universe. Plus we talk about signal that can maybe travel few hundred / a thousand light years before they blend into galactic and intergalactic noise.
- yreg 5y ago
  >How could the eradicators detect and destroy their victims before we detected any signal at all from the victims? Even if they destroy them within say a thousand years, then at any given time there would be only few civilizations at the right age to be broadcasting. And not very loud at that. We listen only to a miniscule portion of the Galaxy. IMO, Fermi's question shouldn't be "Why can't we hear the few civs that are close to our level". It should be "How come we don't detect Kardashev >2 civs collonizing most of the galaxy?" Why can't we detect a single Dyson Sphere? (I don't consider dark forest explanation to be probable though.)
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    The Fermi question is a lot closer to "how come Earth wasn't colonized before we even appear?" than "how come we can't see anybody?".
    - yreg 5y ago
      Yes, that's a cleaner way to put it.

Causality1 5y ago

I don't see there being that big a technological leap between annihilating another civilization and starting a colony in another star system. If you're the type of civilization that would be interested in killing a competitor off you're probably the type that's going to colonize and fill the entire galaxy in a few million years. We evolved, so that hasn't happened, in a galaxy thirteen billion years old. I suspect we're alone.

syops 5y ago
The energy requirement to send a life destroying device to a far away planet might be much less than the energy requirement to send colonizers. That may be the big leap so to speak.
- Causality1 5y ago
  If you can send a weapon you can probably send some kind of Von Neumann probe with genetic and cultural data to create a seed colony
  - syops 5y ago
    I don’t see why that necessarily follows and I don’t see why one would want to send such a probe. It does nothing for me if I can send a probe to start humanity on another planet when I have no connection to said planet and won’t be able to see the result or have a connection to that colony. In the dark forest view one would never seed such a colony as they will quickly become competitors.
    - Causality1 5y ago
      You don't think species chauvinism is a thing? If I had to lose an interstellar war and be wiped out I'd prefer it to be a human offshoot doing it. At least that way my species survives.
      - syops 5y ago
        In the dark forest view it’s best to just kill off the opponent and not replace them with a potential new opponent.
  - wonderwonder 5y ago
    Not really, the weapon does not need to slow down. If its just a big enough chunk of rock that is aimed at a planet and it speeds up the whole way reaching some impressive fraction of the speed of light before impact, the only hard part is the math to aim it. We are reasonably close now to being able to strap some engines on an chunk of rock and send it on its way randomly in one direction. We are very far away from being able to start a seed colony in another solar system.

Mordisquitos 5y ago

I don't see that as a counterpoint, but more of a post hoc theory. How could the eradicators detect and destroy their victims before we detected any signal at all from the victims? And why haven't the eradicators come for us yet? Of course, this could always be explained by the distances involved and the limitations of light speed, but that would make the Dark Forest hypothesis redundant as an explanation as to why we haven't yet detected any alien civilisation(s).

saiya-jin 5y ago
I think what would explain this is our very limited timespan when we started listening to universe. There might have been 10 strong signals in last 2000 years, but last one could have happened around the time US declared independence. And 2000 years is nothing timewise on scale of universe. Plus we talk about signal that can maybe travel few hundred / a thousand light years before they blend into galactic and intergalactic noise.
yreg 5y ago
>How could the eradicators detect and destroy their victims before we detected any signal at all from the victims? Even if they destroy them within say a thousand years, then at any given time there would be only few civilizations at the right age to be broadcasting. And not very loud at that. We listen only to a miniscule portion of the Galaxy. IMO, Fermi's question shouldn't be "Why can't we hear the few civs that are close to our level". It should be "How come we don't detect Kardashev >2 civs collonizing most of the galaxy?" Why can't we detect a single Dyson Sphere? (I don't consider dark forest explanation to be probable though.)
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  The Fermi question is a lot closer to "how come Earth wasn't colonized before we even appear?" than "how come we can't see anybody?".
  - yreg 5y ago
    Yes, that's a cleaner way to put it.