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I have heard soils have become depleted of nutrients and ammonium fertilizers are not enough. There’s also the possibility of drought and loss of pollinators.

marcosdumay 5y ago
Yeah... I think it's pretty hard to believe a model from the 70's could predict the change on any of those with any accuracy, even less that it can predict the timing. I don't think we could do it now.
schiffern 5y ago
> soils have become depleted of nutrients and ammonium fertilizers are not enough It's eye-opening to realize that soil can make its own nutrients and fertilizer (unlike the common view of soil as an inert "sponge" which needs all the fertilizer added to it). Bacteria breaks down rock into minerals (including the all-important potassium and phosphorus) and also fix nitrogen. The problem is that applying synthetic fertilizers kills off this soil biology, making the farmer dependent on.... more synthetic fertilizers. It's a nice racket, until it kills the planet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2H60ritjag https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2H60ritjag It's a huge biotech opportunity. Manufacture fertilizer biologically in-situ, vs blowing up some land, dissolving it in acid (along with tasty cadmium impurities[1]), and shipping it around the globe. [1] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00747683 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00747683
mikewarot 5y ago
The soil itself is depleted. This leads to a positive feedback cycle, and a hockey stick growth in the amount of industrial agriculture inputs required to keep a constant yield, right up to the point the farmer goes broke. Then someone like Gabe Brown comes along, and uses regenerative farming, capturing about a ton of carbon/year as he builds new soil, and frees up the nutrients in the ground to be available to crops. It's a positive feedback cycle that makes the farm profitable again. It's by no means a simple system, but it is profitable, so there is long term hope.

marcosdumay 5y ago

Yeah... I think it's pretty hard to believe a model from the 70's could predict the change on any of those with any accuracy, even less that it can predict the timing. I don't think we could do it now.

schiffern 5y ago

> soils have become depleted of nutrients and ammonium fertilizers are not enough It's eye-opening to realize that soil can make its own nutrients and fertilizer (unlike the common view of soil as an inert "sponge" which needs all the fertilizer added to it). Bacteria breaks down rock into minerals (including the all-important potassium and phosphorus) and also fix nitrogen. The problem is that applying synthetic fertilizers kills off this soil biology, making the farmer dependent on.... more synthetic fertilizers. It's a nice racket, until it kills the planet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2H60ritjag https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2H60ritjag It's a huge biotech opportunity. Manufacture fertilizer biologically in-situ, vs blowing up some land, dissolving it in acid (along with tasty cadmium impurities[1]), and shipping it around the globe. [1] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00747683 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00747683

mikewarot 5y ago

The soil itself is depleted. This leads to a positive feedback cycle, and a hockey stick growth in the amount of industrial agriculture inputs required to keep a constant yield, right up to the point the farmer goes broke. Then someone like Gabe Brown comes along, and uses regenerative farming, capturing about a ton of carbon/year as he builds new soil, and frees up the nutrients in the ground to be available to crops. It's a positive feedback cycle that makes the farm profitable again. It's by no means a simple system, but it is profitable, so there is long term hope.