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I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. EVs are getting cheaper and cheaper, and they’re much simpler to own and maintain. The ne

I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. EVs are getting cheaper and cheaper, and they’re much simpler to own and maintain. The next gas shock will probably tip more people over to ditching gasoline too.

aivisol 5y ago
> much simpler to own and maintain. As a person who never owned an EV I am curious to know how it is simpler to maintain it?
- 1337turtle 5y ago
  Rotate tires and refill the washer fluid. Done! I've had a Nissan Leaf since 2014, and that's all I have ever done.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    And eventually replace the battery which is expensive and wipes out all the previous savings. EV batteries still need to become more durable and more repairable. And sometimes EV manufacturers don't try very hard to do right by their customers: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a...
    - speedgoose 5y ago
      You usually don't replace the battery of an EV. It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car, it can be done but it's usually not worth it. An old leaf with a bad battery should simply be sold for cheap to someone who needs less range.
      - driverdan 5y ago
        > It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car I downvoted you because that's not true. It's far easier to replace batteries than an engine. It requires minimal skill. If they start building them into the body that may change though.
        speedgoose 5y ago
        It's not the same kind of skills for sure. Some cars are easy to replace the battery, but you still need to deal with high voltage procedures. I wouldn't trust myself with an e-golf, but I wouldn't mind replacing the ice engine of a Twingo with the right tooling.
      - 1337turtle 5y ago
        Yup, my Leaf gets only about 40 miles of range on a good day :) But it still works for errands around town. It would not make financial sense to ever replace the battery. It is better to just get another EV when I can no longer get out of my driveway :)
        clouddrover 5y ago
        Buying a new EV is the same as replacing the battery and spending extra on top. It still wipes out the previous savings and increases your carbon footprint because another complete car was manufactured.
        speedgoose 5y ago
        The used EV can replace another dirtier car.
        clouddrover 5y ago
        No, it can't. Its range is now so low it's no longer practical. Expecting people to accept a lot less is not realistic.
        speedgoose 5y ago
        I see tons of first gen Nissan leafs with shitty range every day. And they still have some value on the used market.
        clouddrover 5y ago
        No, you don't. What you see are the few people who are willing to make compromises to practicality that the majority of people are not. I would not buy a first gen Nissan Leaf with shitty range and neither would most people.
        speedgoose 5y ago
      - clouddrover 5y ago
        Halving the utility of the vehicle relative to an ICE car. Being able to repair the battery at a reasonable cost is a more eco-friendly option than having to get a new car: https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39687/teslas-early-vehicles-are-becoming-a-study-on-ev-battery-longevity https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39687/teslas-early-vehicles-ar... Throwaway cars aren't good for anyone.
        imtringued 5y ago
        That's an argument against ICEs because of their non continuous failure. An old car with a 66% degraded battery can still be used. An old car with a busted engine is scrap.
    - mavhc 5y ago
      Assume $100/kWh, and a 50kWh battery, that's $5000 to replace it, after, let's say 100,000 miles. You've saved, let's say, 10 cents per mile on fuel, so that's $10,000 saved. Battery should last about a million miles though, with proper temperature and charge management. Once your battery has degraded to, say, 75%, now you have a free 35kWh battery to store power in your house, that's worth $3500
      - driverdan 5y ago
        > Assume $100/kWh Batteries are not that cheap in 50kWh quantities.
        mavhc 5y ago
        They should be by the time you need a replacement in 10 years
    - 1337turtle 5y ago
      Yup, Tesla is shitty when it comes to things like repairs. They are like Apple, they want you to get a new car vs repair your old. I suggest you avoid Tesla if you are the type of person to drive a car until the wheels fall off. More of a right to repair issue than an EV issue.
- mavhc 5y ago
  Had my Leaf for 4 years, it's time to buy some new windscreen wipers. Apart from tyres, that's been it.
CountDrewku 5y ago
$30k isn't cheap imo, the average person would need to take out a loan to go buy an EV. Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist. Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet. >they’re much simpler to own and maintain Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs-gas-cheaper-to-own/ https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs... Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much.
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  > $30k isn't cheap imo, the average person would need to take out a loan to go buy an EV. $30K is cheaper than the average new car being sold right now by quite a bit, and most consumers get a loan to buy those. It seems more than a little bit strange to complain about a $30K EV being expensive when the average new car buyer is taking out a $40K loan for a gasoline car. > Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist. Outside the big cities everyone has a garage. People also regularly overestimate how much they drive. The average American drives about 30 miles a day, you need to be in the top 1-2% of daily drivers[0] for range to be an issue, especially if you can charge at work. > Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet. Bulk freight by road is a stupid way to organize a society. Don't make semi-trucks green, use trains. They're far more efficient, have cheaper and longer lasting infrastructure, and are trivial electrify. Semi truck transit represents a massive handout to the semi truck industry in the form of unpaid road maintenance[1], we should stop that. For smaller inner-city transit, we're getting very close. EV pickup trucks are already coming out, I would expect cargo vans to show up soon. > Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs... I said that it was simpler to maintain and you replied with a link about it whether or not it is cheaper. Those are different words that mean different things. Yes, EVs are not yet universally cheaper than ICE cars for all use patterns, but that appears to be almost entirely a factor of the purchase price, which is dropping year over year. EVs are lower maintenance (the link you provided backs this up), and cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars (your link also shows this). Given how quickly EVs have dropped in up front purchase price, I think we're really close to EVs being a no-brainer decision for most consumers. > Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much. I hope gasoline gets expensive enough and EVs get cheap enough to change your mind. 0 - https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php 1 - Estimates range from 60 to 120 billion dollars per year. This includes congestion, accidents, and most importantly road damage. The wear that a vehicle causes to a road is proportional to the per-axle weight raised to the fourth power, which means that virtually all damage to public roads are caused by semi trucks and semi trucks alone.
burntoutfire 5y ago
> I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. That may be true in the US and other countries dominated by suburbs (Australia?). However, I can't see that happening that quickly in dense cities in Europe - the cities just won't install millions of chargers required along all streets where people park quickly enough.
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  European cities should start banning cars regardless of what they're powered with, they do not fit into their older cities and they make everything worse. They should double down on public transit, and push cars out to where they provide more benefit than drawback.
  - burntoutfire 5y ago
    That would make sense in the richest/tier1 cities, I don't think the rest could afford good enough public transit though.

aivisol 5y ago

> much simpler to own and maintain. As a person who never owned an EV I am curious to know how it is simpler to maintain it?

1337turtle 5y ago
Rotate tires and refill the washer fluid. Done! I've had a Nissan Leaf since 2014, and that's all I have ever done.
- clouddrover 5y ago
  And eventually replace the battery which is expensive and wipes out all the previous savings. EV batteries still need to become more durable and more repairable. And sometimes EV manufacturers don't try very hard to do right by their customers: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a...
  - speedgoose 5y ago
    You usually don't replace the battery of an EV. It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car, it can be done but it's usually not worth it. An old leaf with a bad battery should simply be sold for cheap to someone who needs less range.
    - driverdan 5y ago
      > It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car I downvoted you because that's not true. It's far easier to replace batteries than an engine. It requires minimal skill. If they start building them into the body that may change though.
      - speedgoose 5y ago
        It's not the same kind of skills for sure. Some cars are easy to replace the battery, but you still need to deal with high voltage procedures. I wouldn't trust myself with an e-golf, but I wouldn't mind replacing the ice engine of a Twingo with the right tooling.
    - 1337turtle 5y ago
      Yup, my Leaf gets only about 40 miles of range on a good day :) But it still works for errands around town. It would not make financial sense to ever replace the battery. It is better to just get another EV when I can no longer get out of my driveway :)
      - clouddrover 5y ago
        Buying a new EV is the same as replacing the battery and spending extra on top. It still wipes out the previous savings and increases your carbon footprint because another complete car was manufactured.
        speedgoose 5y ago
        The used EV can replace another dirtier car.
        clouddrover 5y ago
        No, it can't. Its range is now so low it's no longer practical. Expecting people to accept a lot less is not realistic.
        speedgoose 5y ago
        I see tons of first gen Nissan leafs with shitty range every day. And they still have some value on the used market.
        clouddrover 5y ago
        No, you don't. What you see are the few people who are willing to make compromises to practicality that the majority of people are not. I would not buy a first gen Nissan Leaf with shitty range and neither would most people.
        speedgoose 5y ago
    - clouddrover 5y ago
      Halving the utility of the vehicle relative to an ICE car. Being able to repair the battery at a reasonable cost is a more eco-friendly option than having to get a new car: https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39687/teslas-early-vehicles-are-becoming-a-study-on-ev-battery-longevity https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39687/teslas-early-vehicles-ar... Throwaway cars aren't good for anyone.
      - imtringued 5y ago
        That's an argument against ICEs because of their non continuous failure. An old car with a 66% degraded battery can still be used. An old car with a busted engine is scrap.
  - mavhc 5y ago
    Assume $100/kWh, and a 50kWh battery, that's $5000 to replace it, after, let's say 100,000 miles. You've saved, let's say, 10 cents per mile on fuel, so that's $10,000 saved. Battery should last about a million miles though, with proper temperature and charge management. Once your battery has degraded to, say, 75%, now you have a free 35kWh battery to store power in your house, that's worth $3500
    - driverdan 5y ago
      > Assume $100/kWh Batteries are not that cheap in 50kWh quantities.
      - mavhc 5y ago
        They should be by the time you need a replacement in 10 years
  - 1337turtle 5y ago
    Yup, Tesla is shitty when it comes to things like repairs. They are like Apple, they want you to get a new car vs repair your old. I suggest you avoid Tesla if you are the type of person to drive a car until the wheels fall off. More of a right to repair issue than an EV issue.
mavhc 5y ago
Had my Leaf for 4 years, it's time to buy some new windscreen wipers. Apart from tyres, that's been it.

CountDrewku 5y ago

$30k isn't cheap imo, the average person would need to take out a loan to go buy an EV. Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist. Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet. >they’re much simpler to own and maintain Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs-gas-cheaper-to-own/ https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs... Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much.

ashtonkem 5y ago
> $30k isn't cheap imo, the average person would need to take out a loan to go buy an EV. $30K is cheaper than the average new car being sold right now by quite a bit, and most consumers get a loan to buy those. It seems more than a little bit strange to complain about a $30K EV being expensive when the average new car buyer is taking out a $40K loan for a gasoline car. > Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist. Outside the big cities everyone has a garage. People also regularly overestimate how much they drive. The average American drives about 30 miles a day, you need to be in the top 1-2% of daily drivers[0] for range to be an issue, especially if you can charge at work. > Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet. Bulk freight by road is a stupid way to organize a society. Don't make semi-trucks green, use trains. They're far more efficient, have cheaper and longer lasting infrastructure, and are trivial electrify. Semi truck transit represents a massive handout to the semi truck industry in the form of unpaid road maintenance[1], we should stop that. For smaller inner-city transit, we're getting very close. EV pickup trucks are already coming out, I would expect cargo vans to show up soon. > Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs... I said that it was simpler to maintain and you replied with a link about it whether or not it is cheaper. Those are different words that mean different things. Yes, EVs are not yet universally cheaper than ICE cars for all use patterns, but that appears to be almost entirely a factor of the purchase price, which is dropping year over year. EVs are lower maintenance (the link you provided backs this up), and cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars (your link also shows this). Given how quickly EVs have dropped in up front purchase price, I think we're really close to EVs being a no-brainer decision for most consumers. > Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much. I hope gasoline gets expensive enough and EVs get cheap enough to change your mind. 0 - https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php 1 - Estimates range from 60 to 120 billion dollars per year. This includes congestion, accidents, and most importantly road damage. The wear that a vehicle causes to a road is proportional to the per-axle weight raised to the fourth power, which means that virtually all damage to public roads are caused by semi trucks and semi trucks alone.

burntoutfire 5y ago

> I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. That may be true in the US and other countries dominated by suburbs (Australia?). However, I can't see that happening that quickly in dense cities in Europe - the cities just won't install millions of chargers required along all streets where people park quickly enough.

ashtonkem 5y ago
European cities should start banning cars regardless of what they're powered with, they do not fit into their older cities and they make everything worse. They should double down on public transit, and push cars out to where they provide more benefit than drawback.
- burntoutfire 5y ago
  That would make sense in the richest/tier1 cities, I don't think the rest could afford good enough public transit though.