6 ms·

Underwhelming. No more petrol and diesel cars in 20 years? That should have been the policy 20 years ago.

f6v 5y ago
You remind of those developers that say “You have a Rails monolith? Let’s just tear everything down and rewrite it in microservices!” When in reality it takes years to move small parts of the backend into standalone services. Now imagine dismantling the whole industry with its R&D, supply chains, people’s pensions, etc.
- Daishiman 5y ago
  We have seen with existing electrification measures that once certain tipping points are reached entire industries roll over to new technologies. No reason to think it wouldn't apply for this either.
- rorykoehler 5y ago
  The counterpoint is that Telsa managed to emerge from nothing in that time. Incumbent ICE car companies had no incentive to start the transition so it's necessary to introduce an artificial constraint.
  - closeparen 5y ago
    Emerging from nothing is a lot easier and faster than migrating the long tail.
    - rorykoehler 5y ago
      One of the German ICE CEO's was going on about how they have over a century of experience and Tesla will never catch up. There is something in this as most parts of the car don't change when becoming electric and the bits that do become simpler. They surely have the resources, architects and design teams to do this migration (which they have proven as they all now have electric car platforms in production). It was a matter of will not inability.
  - paganel 5y ago
    Many, many EU citizens can not afford Teslas or equivalently priced EVs. Even the electric version of the common VW Golf is 30-to-50% more expensive than its ICE counter-part (which is not that cheap, either).
    - xyzzyz 5y ago
      Yeah. If you’re American, imagine being being 25% poorer, and cars being 50% more expensive (due to excise taxes, displacement taxes, 20%+ VAT and more) — that’s the reality faced by Europeans.
      - SECProto 5y ago
        Make sure you also imagine that competent public transport and/or active transportation options are pretty widely available as alternatives.
        f6v 5y ago
        Major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, Paris, and Vienna have good public transport network. But many people live in smaller cities/outskirts where car is mandatory.
        xyzzyz 5y ago
        This is not the reality that most Europeans live in. Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent. US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 people. In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller.
        SECProto 5y ago
        > Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent I just opened up google maps, picked out two random small towns in Germany, and the driving distance between them is 200km/2hrs, while the transit length is 3hrs (with a transfer in a major city). Doing the same in the Northeast, one of the best areas for transit in the US, resulted in two towns 120miles/2hrs drive distance, and 18hr/6 transfers transit distance. So yes, a car is more convenient in both cases, but transit is a competent alternative (which is what I said). France and Italy had comparable results to Germany, Spain did not. Germany, France, and Italy makes up roughly half of the EU population (add in Belgium or the Netherlands if you wanna be precise, they've got decent transit too). > US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 You appear to have taken this article [1], and picked out the top three EU countries. > In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller. "Owning a car" is not the same metric as "Needing to own a car to do literally anything because there are no alternatives". Germany, France, and Italy all rank higher than the US in annual passenger-km's of rail travel, despite each having populations 1/5th to 1/4th the size of the US[2]. Or look up modal share by country for other info - there's no handy Wikipedia summary, unfortunately, but for example, Germany is about 30% transit commutes. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usag...
  - kergonath 5y ago
    Tesla is a useful idiot. It's a toy for rich people who like to buy shiny things and pretend they care. It isn't a solution to anything. What we need is lots of small and cheap cars that can be built easily and on a massive scale. Something akin to the original Volkswagen, or an automobile equivalent of the liberty ships. Or even better, more public transport, and more remote work.
- kergonath 5y ago
  You're right, this is a challenge. But it will happen, global warning will see to it. The earlier we do it voluntarily, the better we can accommodate the consequences of this transformation. Also, such a transition would not be unprecedented, see for example how western societies adapted to the war efforts during WWI and WWII. These were radical changes of industrial production on a truly massive scale. The sort of things we need now.
- aerique 5y ago
  No, the person you're replying to is right: we've had decades and decades of warnings. Small steps could have been taken 30 years ago but now it's too late for that.
  - blooalien 5y ago
    > "Small steps could have been taken 30 years ago but now it's too late for that." ^^^ So much exactly this! ^^^ I watched a mess of climatologists warn society on public TV about the consequences of climate change (global warming) and explain why it was a real issue to be acting upon, way back when (my late teenage years mebbe?) and apparently we've had some inkling of it bein' an issue decades longer'n that even… Truth is stranger'n fiction, I suppose.
junon 5y ago
20 years ago would have been great. Not doing it for another 20 years would be worse. Let's take the victories where we can.
- rorykoehler 5y ago
  Considering where car manufacturers are now with their electric platforms I think 10 years from now would be ok and 5 years possible. Sometimes you just have to rip off the plaster.
  - foepys 5y ago
    I bet all EU car makers would be very happy to do that. The only problem is: where do you get the batteries and renewable energy from?
    - adrianN 5y ago
      The lobbying efforts done by car makers paint a very different picture. You get the batteries and the renewable energy by building factories that produce batteries and by building wind turbines and solar panels. It's not rocket science.
- 0xffff2 5y ago
  This is not a victory. We are already past the point where passive measures are enough. We need to take all possible passive measures immediately (i.e. within the current term of whatever political bodies are relevant), and start looking at what active measures can be safely and economically deployed. Allowing politicians to promise action in the future (i.e. beyond their current term of office) is an absolute and total defeat.
  - junon 5y ago
    And we've been saying this for decades, nothing happens. That's the sad reality. Any progression on this front is, in my book, a victory.
estaseuropano 5y ago
Easy for the Netherlands or Finland, hard for Romania, Latvia or Greece. The EU is quite diverse and individual countries will hopefully be more ambitious if they can.
- aerique 5y ago
  The Netherlands will not be ambitious. Our (NL) climate policies have been a dumpster fire. We're like in the bottom of the EU when it comes to that.
rscoots 5y ago
This part was always the most surprising to me. How are people expected to travel long distances individually in the future? Wouldn't other carbon-reducing initiatives lessen the need for banning gas-powered calls altogether?
- adrianN 5y ago
  We need to implement all carbon reducing initiatives simultaneously. People are expected to travel long distances either by using fast charging and taking slightly longer breaks than before.

f6v 5y ago

You remind of those developers that say “You have a Rails monolith? Let’s just tear everything down and rewrite it in microservices!” When in reality it takes years to move small parts of the backend into standalone services. Now imagine dismantling the whole industry with its R&D, supply chains, people’s pensions, etc.

Daishiman 5y ago
We have seen with existing electrification measures that once certain tipping points are reached entire industries roll over to new technologies. No reason to think it wouldn't apply for this either.
rorykoehler 5y ago
The counterpoint is that Telsa managed to emerge from nothing in that time. Incumbent ICE car companies had no incentive to start the transition so it's necessary to introduce an artificial constraint.
- closeparen 5y ago
  Emerging from nothing is a lot easier and faster than migrating the long tail.
  - rorykoehler 5y ago
    One of the German ICE CEO's was going on about how they have over a century of experience and Tesla will never catch up. There is something in this as most parts of the car don't change when becoming electric and the bits that do become simpler. They surely have the resources, architects and design teams to do this migration (which they have proven as they all now have electric car platforms in production). It was a matter of will not inability.
- paganel 5y ago
  Many, many EU citizens can not afford Teslas or equivalently priced EVs. Even the electric version of the common VW Golf is 30-to-50% more expensive than its ICE counter-part (which is not that cheap, either).
  - xyzzyz 5y ago
    Yeah. If you’re American, imagine being being 25% poorer, and cars being 50% more expensive (due to excise taxes, displacement taxes, 20%+ VAT and more) — that’s the reality faced by Europeans.
    - SECProto 5y ago
      Make sure you also imagine that competent public transport and/or active transportation options are pretty widely available as alternatives.
      - f6v 5y ago
        Major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, Paris, and Vienna have good public transport network. But many people live in smaller cities/outskirts where car is mandatory.
      - xyzzyz 5y ago
        This is not the reality that most Europeans live in. Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent. US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 people. In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller.
        SECProto 5y ago
        > Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent I just opened up google maps, picked out two random small towns in Germany, and the driving distance between them is 200km/2hrs, while the transit length is 3hrs (with a transfer in a major city). Doing the same in the Northeast, one of the best areas for transit in the US, resulted in two towns 120miles/2hrs drive distance, and 18hr/6 transfers transit distance. So yes, a car is more convenient in both cases, but transit is a competent alternative (which is what I said). France and Italy had comparable results to Germany, Spain did not. Germany, France, and Italy makes up roughly half of the EU population (add in Belgium or the Netherlands if you wanna be precise, they've got decent transit too). > US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 You appear to have taken this article [1], and picked out the top three EU countries. > In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller. "Owning a car" is not the same metric as "Needing to own a car to do literally anything because there are no alternatives". Germany, France, and Italy all rank higher than the US in annual passenger-km's of rail travel, despite each having populations 1/5th to 1/4th the size of the US[2]. Or look up modal share by country for other info - there's no handy Wikipedia summary, unfortunately, but for example, Germany is about 30% transit commutes. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usag...
- kergonath 5y ago
  Tesla is a useful idiot. It's a toy for rich people who like to buy shiny things and pretend they care. It isn't a solution to anything. What we need is lots of small and cheap cars that can be built easily and on a massive scale. Something akin to the original Volkswagen, or an automobile equivalent of the liberty ships. Or even better, more public transport, and more remote work.
kergonath 5y ago
You're right, this is a challenge. But it will happen, global warning will see to it. The earlier we do it voluntarily, the better we can accommodate the consequences of this transformation. Also, such a transition would not be unprecedented, see for example how western societies adapted to the war efforts during WWI and WWII. These were radical changes of industrial production on a truly massive scale. The sort of things we need now.
aerique 5y ago
No, the person you're replying to is right: we've had decades and decades of warnings. Small steps could have been taken 30 years ago but now it's too late for that.
- blooalien 5y ago
  > "Small steps could have been taken 30 years ago but now it's too late for that." ^^^ So much exactly this! ^^^ I watched a mess of climatologists warn society on public TV about the consequences of climate change (global warming) and explain why it was a real issue to be acting upon, way back when (my late teenage years mebbe?) and apparently we've had some inkling of it bein' an issue decades longer'n that even… Truth is stranger'n fiction, I suppose.

junon 5y ago

20 years ago would have been great. Not doing it for another 20 years would be worse. Let's take the victories where we can.

rorykoehler 5y ago
Considering where car manufacturers are now with their electric platforms I think 10 years from now would be ok and 5 years possible. Sometimes you just have to rip off the plaster.
- foepys 5y ago
  I bet all EU car makers would be very happy to do that. The only problem is: where do you get the batteries and renewable energy from?
  - adrianN 5y ago
    The lobbying efforts done by car makers paint a very different picture. You get the batteries and the renewable energy by building factories that produce batteries and by building wind turbines and solar panels. It's not rocket science.
0xffff2 5y ago
This is not a victory. We are already past the point where passive measures are enough. We need to take all possible passive measures immediately (i.e. within the current term of whatever political bodies are relevant), and start looking at what active measures can be safely and economically deployed. Allowing politicians to promise action in the future (i.e. beyond their current term of office) is an absolute and total defeat.
- junon 5y ago
  And we've been saying this for decades, nothing happens. That's the sad reality. Any progression on this front is, in my book, a victory.

estaseuropano 5y ago

Easy for the Netherlands or Finland, hard for Romania, Latvia or Greece. The EU is quite diverse and individual countries will hopefully be more ambitious if they can.

aerique 5y ago
The Netherlands will not be ambitious. Our (NL) climate policies have been a dumpster fire. We're like in the bottom of the EU when it comes to that.

rscoots 5y ago

This part was always the most surprising to me. How are people expected to travel long distances individually in the future? Wouldn't other carbon-reducing initiatives lessen the need for banning gas-powered calls altogether?

adrianN 5y ago
We need to implement all carbon reducing initiatives simultaneously. People are expected to travel long distances either by using fast charging and taking slightly longer breaks than before.