9 ms·

Is seems kind of logical in hindsight: the first mutation of the predecessor bat/pangolin/whatever virus genome to cross over to humans is an MVP full of "compa

by usrusr 5y ago

Is seems kind of logical in hindsight: the first mutation of the predecessor bat/pangolin/whatever virus genome to cross over to humans is an MVP full of "compatibility bugs" that barely achieves R0>1. A few billion dicerolls later many of those "compatibility bugs" have found fixes. Remember the hand washing phase of the pandemic? Aerosol transmission was basically ruled out because it was assumed that spread would have been much faster if it happened by aerosol. Turns out like it was aerosol all the time, just slowed down massively by all those "compatibility bugs" that are now slowly ironed out. Fortunately, our immune systems adapt as well (both individually and industrially, by ramping up mRNA capabilities and production)

davnn 5y ago
> full of "compatibility bugs" that barely achieves R0>1 Did I miss something? COVID-19 was highly contagious from the beginning, thus the drastic measures, or not?
- babyblueblanket 5y ago
  It is highly contagious. But not as much as say, the measles.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    COVID19's main issue is that it takes anywhere from 5 to 14 days before you feel symptoms. During this window, it looks like you're still spreading COVID19 around. Therefore: traditional means of preventing spread (ie: staying home from work and/or school) are ineffective. Measles or Ebola (or plenty of other diseases) have a much smaller window of spreading (because you feel sick sooner).
    - floxy 5y ago
      What's the latest on asymptomatic spread for covid-19? Last update I had seen was that this wasn't likely. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
      - bigodbiel 5y ago
        Asymptomatic is not pre-symptomatic.
        floxy 5y ago
        What's the latest information on presymptomatic spreading?
  - thamer 5y ago
    Is there a human pathogen more contagious than measles? I remember reading this scenario that really gave me a sense of how contagious it is: > The virus can linger in the air for about two hours after a person with measles has left the room. It can infect those who enter the room if they are unimmunized. From: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/measles-what-you-should-know https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas...
- standardUser 5y ago
  It's the asymptomatic spread that has caused a lot of the problems and concern. People with ebola for example rarely spread it because they become so quickly and acutely ill. But with COVID, you're going about your normal life for days while spreading it unknowingly before symptoms hit (if they even hit at all).
  - davnn 5y ago
    > It's the asymptomatic spread that has caused a lot of the problems and concern. Is there a lot of evidence of this? Last time I checked, asymptomatic spread was not well understood.
    - standardUser 5y ago
      I used the wrong word! Most data shows people who have a truly asymptomatic infection do not frequently spread the virus. But much if not most of the transmission occurs from infected people while they are pre-symptomatic. Hence the ease of spreading the diseases, and the push by many health agencies to get people with no symptoms to wear masks and social distance in case they are infected but don't know it yet. Here's a couple relatively recent links: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/most-covid-19-cases-are-spread-by-people-without-symptoms https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/most-...
api 5y ago
This is also why vaccination is so critical and why "young healthy people" should not opt out: when you get the virus, even if it's a mild case, you are in effect donating processing power to what amounts to a global supercomputing project to evolve more virulent strains of COVID. That's how evolution works. The more chances the virus has to replicate, the more likely it is to become more virulent or even worse learn to evade the vaccine. If the delta variant jumps the vaccine hurdle we are back to early 2020 but with something 2-4X as contagious. Scientific literacy matters and know-nothing populist bullshit (regardless of whether it is "left" or "right" in flavor) is dangerous. There is no such thing as a "post-truth era." Being wrong carries the death penalty, eventually. Civilization insulates us quite a bit allowing a lot of people to go nuts with little consequence, but if enough people are wrong enough for long enough the wall collapses and the consequences arrive. If you think this is fun, your kids and grandkids are gonna have a blast with 800ppm CO2 levels.
- abystander 5y ago
  > know-nothing populist bullshit Can we flag this for unnecessary sanctimony?
- throwaway316943 5y ago
  That entirely depends on the selection pressure being applied. A vaccine that only targets the spike protein is a great way to select for a mutation with a different spike protein. Limiting human contact selects for strains that can infect during short periods of exposure… oops.
  - api 5y ago
    Vaccination means you don't need to limit exposure so much, which reduces selection for casual transmissibility. It also means the existing un-mutated virus has far less of an opportunity to "experiment" and mutate further.
    - mandmandam 5y ago
      > It also means the existing un-mutated virus has far less of an opportunity to "experiment" and mutate further. You seem to be ignoring the time variable. If wide-spread vaccination slows the spread, then the spread lasts longer, unless and until the virus is totally eradicated.
specialist 5y ago
> Remember the hand washing phase of the pandemic? Guidelines need to be enumerated, like product releases. So much angst would be avoided. When there's a disagreement, the parties (operating in good faith) could go meta and compare guideline versions. Which would help resolve differences. "Oh, you're following guidelines USA-1.4. I see. FYI, last week our governor issued USA-NY-1.5, clarifying protocols for open air retail. All these revisions! Such a bother, I know. I'm so glad you and me are back on the same page. Be safe! We'll get thru this."
- throwaway316943 5y ago
  Even easier would be simply admitting they were wrong about the previous guidelines and explaining why, you know like grown ups.
  - specialist 5y ago
    They did. Repeatedly. Further, many exposés and post mortems are in progress. The Premonition https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Lewis/dp/0393881555 https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Le... Uncontrolled Spread: Why COVID-19 Crushed Us and How We Can Defeat the Next Pandemic https://www.amazon.com/Preparing-Inevitable-Normal-Survive-Epidemic/dp/006308001X https://www.amazon.com/Preparing-Inevitable-Normal-Survive-E... Preventable https://www.amazon.com/Preventable-Leadership-Failures-Selfishness-Coronavirus/dp/1250770165/ https://www.amazon.com/Preventable-Leadership-Failures-Selfi... Move on.
    - throwaway316943 5y ago
      Only after being left with no choice or when politically convenient. Too little too late.
    - kuraudo 5y ago
      The problem is that the people admitting these mistakes were not necessarily the political figures advocating them to the populace at large. I imagine a fair bit of opposition to the safe vaccines we are able to enjoy is due to skepticism of political figures not owning up to their initial false statements. For example, I distinctly remember the former president stating loudly and repeatedly that Coronavirus was no big deal (paraphrasing), that it would disappear overnight, that the United States was well prepared for it, and so on. I do not recall any mea culpa's being issue: just one new bold statement after the next. To be fair to our conservative friends, I'm sure this behavior is not limited to only one political party.

by usrusr 5y ago

davnn 5y ago

> full of "compatibility bugs" that barely achieves R0>1 Did I miss something? COVID-19 was highly contagious from the beginning, thus the drastic measures, or not?

babyblueblanket 5y ago
It is highly contagious. But not as much as say, the measles.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  COVID19's main issue is that it takes anywhere from 5 to 14 days before you feel symptoms. During this window, it looks like you're still spreading COVID19 around. Therefore: traditional means of preventing spread (ie: staying home from work and/or school) are ineffective. Measles or Ebola (or plenty of other diseases) have a much smaller window of spreading (because you feel sick sooner).
  - floxy 5y ago
    What's the latest on asymptomatic spread for covid-19? Last update I had seen was that this wasn't likely. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
    - bigodbiel 5y ago
      Asymptomatic is not pre-symptomatic.
      - floxy 5y ago
        What's the latest information on presymptomatic spreading?
- thamer 5y ago
  Is there a human pathogen more contagious than measles? I remember reading this scenario that really gave me a sense of how contagious it is: > The virus can linger in the air for about two hours after a person with measles has left the room. It can infect those who enter the room if they are unimmunized. From: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/measles-what-you-should-know https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas...
standardUser 5y ago
It's the asymptomatic spread that has caused a lot of the problems and concern. People with ebola for example rarely spread it because they become so quickly and acutely ill. But with COVID, you're going about your normal life for days while spreading it unknowingly before symptoms hit (if they even hit at all).
- davnn 5y ago
  > It's the asymptomatic spread that has caused a lot of the problems and concern. Is there a lot of evidence of this? Last time I checked, asymptomatic spread was not well understood.
  - standardUser 5y ago
    I used the wrong word! Most data shows people who have a truly asymptomatic infection do not frequently spread the virus. But much if not most of the transmission occurs from infected people while they are pre-symptomatic. Hence the ease of spreading the diseases, and the push by many health agencies to get people with no symptoms to wear masks and social distance in case they are infected but don't know it yet. Here's a couple relatively recent links: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/most-covid-19-cases-are-spread-by-people-without-symptoms https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/most-...

api 5y ago

This is also why vaccination is so critical and why "young healthy people" should not opt out: when you get the virus, even if it's a mild case, you are in effect donating processing power to what amounts to a global supercomputing project to evolve more virulent strains of COVID. That's how evolution works. The more chances the virus has to replicate, the more likely it is to become more virulent or even worse learn to evade the vaccine. If the delta variant jumps the vaccine hurdle we are back to early 2020 but with something 2-4X as contagious. Scientific literacy matters and know-nothing populist bullshit (regardless of whether it is "left" or "right" in flavor) is dangerous. There is no such thing as a "post-truth era." Being wrong carries the death penalty, eventually. Civilization insulates us quite a bit allowing a lot of people to go nuts with little consequence, but if enough people are wrong enough for long enough the wall collapses and the consequences arrive. If you think this is fun, your kids and grandkids are gonna have a blast with 800ppm CO2 levels.

abystander 5y ago
> know-nothing populist bullshit Can we flag this for unnecessary sanctimony?
throwaway316943 5y ago
That entirely depends on the selection pressure being applied. A vaccine that only targets the spike protein is a great way to select for a mutation with a different spike protein. Limiting human contact selects for strains that can infect during short periods of exposure… oops.
- api 5y ago
  Vaccination means you don't need to limit exposure so much, which reduces selection for casual transmissibility. It also means the existing un-mutated virus has far less of an opportunity to "experiment" and mutate further.
  - mandmandam 5y ago
    > It also means the existing un-mutated virus has far less of an opportunity to "experiment" and mutate further. You seem to be ignoring the time variable. If wide-spread vaccination slows the spread, then the spread lasts longer, unless and until the virus is totally eradicated.

specialist 5y ago

> Remember the hand washing phase of the pandemic? Guidelines need to be enumerated, like product releases. So much angst would be avoided. When there's a disagreement, the parties (operating in good faith) could go meta and compare guideline versions. Which would help resolve differences. "Oh, you're following guidelines USA-1.4. I see. FYI, last week our governor issued USA-NY-1.5, clarifying protocols for open air retail. All these revisions! Such a bother, I know. I'm so glad you and me are back on the same page. Be safe! We'll get thru this."

throwaway316943 5y ago
Even easier would be simply admitting they were wrong about the previous guidelines and explaining why, you know like grown ups.
- specialist 5y ago
  They did. Repeatedly. Further, many exposés and post mortems are in progress. The Premonition https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Lewis/dp/0393881555 https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Le... Uncontrolled Spread: Why COVID-19 Crushed Us and How We Can Defeat the Next Pandemic https://www.amazon.com/Preparing-Inevitable-Normal-Survive-Epidemic/dp/006308001X https://www.amazon.com/Preparing-Inevitable-Normal-Survive-E... Preventable https://www.amazon.com/Preventable-Leadership-Failures-Selfishness-Coronavirus/dp/1250770165/ https://www.amazon.com/Preventable-Leadership-Failures-Selfi... Move on.
  - throwaway316943 5y ago
    Only after being left with no choice or when politically convenient. Too little too late.
  - kuraudo 5y ago
    The problem is that the people admitting these mistakes were not necessarily the political figures advocating them to the populace at large. I imagine a fair bit of opposition to the safe vaccines we are able to enjoy is due to skepticism of political figures not owning up to their initial false statements. For example, I distinctly remember the former president stating loudly and repeatedly that Coronavirus was no big deal (paraphrasing), that it would disappear overnight, that the United States was well prepared for it, and so on. I do not recall any mea culpa's being issue: just one new bold statement after the next. To be fair to our conservative friends, I'm sure this behavior is not limited to only one political party.