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I wonder if this is a statistical bias where we intuitively over sample one group while under sampling another and then average over the sample. The urban poor

I wonder if this is a statistical bias where we intuitively over sample one group while under sampling another and then average over the sample. The urban poor is probably a lot more numerous than the rural poor, but when thinking about the poor we tend to think about the rural communities. I don’t know how the numbers but common belief is that in the rural areas the poor make up a larger proportion of the total population then in urban areas. However the urban population is a lot larger then the rural population. So in absolute numbers there might be more urban poor (which are forced to commute by walking/biking/public transit, etc.) then there are rural poor. So—in absolute numbers—it is not unlikely—though counter-intuitive—that rich car usage outnumbers poor car usage by a lot. On top of that, one can be forgiven for under count the number of working class folks which work close to where they live. The lower classes hold the majority of service jobs, which are often located in the residential neighborhoods. And then majority of all neighborhoods are not gentrified and have affordable (or at least not ridiculously high) rent.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago
> The urban poor is probably a lot more numerous than the rural poor Actually, the suburban poor trump both urban and rural poor by far. That is, people who live in communities not in the urban core of a metro area, but within distance of one. They are much more attached to cars than the urban poor (who can't afford the parking fees anyways). These are the people stuck with crappy 1 hour commutes to their low paying job, whereas the urban poor...they are close enough to their jobs, but instead their housing is really expensive (or of bad quality). The suburban poor own a car, parking isn't much of a problem for them, and they make up a lot of the cars on the freeway during rush hour because their jobs provide them with much less flexibility in avoiding it. The suburban poor might even own a cheap house, they are much more numerous in the USA than who I would consider rich. So think someone who is commuting in from Concord because they can't afford to live in SF, not those people living in SF itself. SF is generally a bad example because of parking costs (you can't afford to drive there), but outside of downtown there are still lots of jobs that people commute by car to. Here in Seattle, a lot of people drive to their jobs outside of the city core, coming in from outside of Seattle to do so (whereas people like me take the Google bus, my Amazonian wife just has to walk a block to the bus stop that takes her within a block of her office, because we paid a bunch of money for a place in Ballard).
- runarberg 5y ago
  A fellow Seattlite here (well Vashon to be precise). I don’t know the numbers so I believe your numbers over my previous guess. But when I was thinking about the urban poor I was actually thinking about the suburbs as well. The Seattle area has a lot people living and working in places like White Center, Burien and Issaquah. Even those that live in the suburbs but work downtown, a lot of them ride the Sounder from Everet or Pyuallup, or walk on to the ferries from Bremerton or Southworth. The few times I commute to downtown with the Water Taxi I see a lot of people coming from Southworth on the WS ferry and transfer onto the Water Taxi to Colman Dock (probably less now that Southworth has their own PO boat). But like I said, I don’t know the numbers at all. Here on Vashon I would guess that there is little correlation between economic position and whether or not you commute by car any further then the nearest park-and-ride. Although those that bike all the way to the ferry are probably on the richer side if I were to guess. I my self can walk to the highway and catch a bus to the Water Taxi (which is a pretty nice commute tbh). However I belive you when you say that the suburban poor outnumber any other group and that they are overwhelmingly drivers.
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    Most jobs aren’t in downtown Seattle though. So you are stuck with a job somewhere away from a main transit route, you live away from a main transit route, taking public transit really isn’t a luxury in time that you can afford. If you don’t want to drive, there are lots of things you can do in arranging where you live and having flexibility in where and when you work (eg buying a house in Ballard rather than Lynwood, working for a high tech company with a convenient office location - because it’s part of their effort to attract workers, etc…). Those options become more accessible the more money you make.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago

> The urban poor is probably a lot more numerous than the rural poor Actually, the suburban poor trump both urban and rural poor by far. That is, people who live in communities not in the urban core of a metro area, but within distance of one. They are much more attached to cars than the urban poor (who can't afford the parking fees anyways). These are the people stuck with crappy 1 hour commutes to their low paying job, whereas the urban poor...they are close enough to their jobs, but instead their housing is really expensive (or of bad quality). The suburban poor own a car, parking isn't much of a problem for them, and they make up a lot of the cars on the freeway during rush hour because their jobs provide them with much less flexibility in avoiding it. The suburban poor might even own a cheap house, they are much more numerous in the USA than who I would consider rich. So think someone who is commuting in from Concord because they can't afford to live in SF, not those people living in SF itself. SF is generally a bad example because of parking costs (you can't afford to drive there), but outside of downtown there are still lots of jobs that people commute by car to. Here in Seattle, a lot of people drive to their jobs outside of the city core, coming in from outside of Seattle to do so (whereas people like me take the Google bus, my Amazonian wife just has to walk a block to the bus stop that takes her within a block of her office, because we paid a bunch of money for a place in Ballard).

runarberg 5y ago
A fellow Seattlite here (well Vashon to be precise). I don’t know the numbers so I believe your numbers over my previous guess. But when I was thinking about the urban poor I was actually thinking about the suburbs as well. The Seattle area has a lot people living and working in places like White Center, Burien and Issaquah. Even those that live in the suburbs but work downtown, a lot of them ride the Sounder from Everet or Pyuallup, or walk on to the ferries from Bremerton or Southworth. The few times I commute to downtown with the Water Taxi I see a lot of people coming from Southworth on the WS ferry and transfer onto the Water Taxi to Colman Dock (probably less now that Southworth has their own PO boat). But like I said, I don’t know the numbers at all. Here on Vashon I would guess that there is little correlation between economic position and whether or not you commute by car any further then the nearest park-and-ride. Although those that bike all the way to the ferry are probably on the richer side if I were to guess. I my self can walk to the highway and catch a bus to the Water Taxi (which is a pretty nice commute tbh). However I belive you when you say that the suburban poor outnumber any other group and that they are overwhelmingly drivers.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  Most jobs aren’t in downtown Seattle though. So you are stuck with a job somewhere away from a main transit route, you live away from a main transit route, taking public transit really isn’t a luxury in time that you can afford. If you don’t want to drive, there are lots of things you can do in arranging where you live and having flexibility in where and when you work (eg buying a house in Ballard rather than Lynwood, working for a high tech company with a convenient office location - because it’s part of their effort to attract workers, etc…). Those options become more accessible the more money you make.