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I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
I recently had the chance to chat with the former ambassador (US) to Ethiopia as I'm doing some research in the region and we talked briefly about this. He thought it was very unlikely there would be military action.
bradleyjg 5y ago
Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?
- RegnisGnaw 5y ago
  The US Government won’t approve of such an action. The Junta will swing to PRC for this. China doesn’t really care as but it would be a geopolitical win. This is Egypt’s lively hood. They won’t allow this to happen.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > The US Government won’t approve of such an action. While the Biden Administration is less absolutely in line with Egypt than Trump was on the issue, they only seem to be relatively deemphasizing GERD to apply more pressure on other humanitarian and security issues with Ethiopia. While I can't see them sanctioning a unilateral attack, absent some UNSC resolution that gets both sides onboard, I can't see them taking action against Egypt, even by way of anything more than symbolic at the UN, over it.
- jryle70 5y ago
  Allied? more like convenient partners. Both side needs each other. But Egypt doesn't hesitate to get cozy with Russia: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tension-sanctions-russia-arms-deal.html https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...
  - Sideyon 5y ago
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally
  - bradleyjg 5y ago
    The US supported their coup and gives the regime billions of dollars in military aid a year despite a law that specifically forbids giving military aid to juntas that overthrow democratically elected governments. That certainly seems pretty ally-like.
    - jryle70 5y ago
      > The US supported their coup and gives the regime billions of dollars in military aid a year despite a law that specifically forbids giving military aid to juntas that overthrow democratically elected governments. Egypt was supported by the USSR for much of the Cold War. Prying them away from the Soviet's sphere, at the same time building a buffer for Israel, was a major coup. The aid is the price of that, regardless of who is in power in Cairo. Again, US ally doesn't buy SU-35 from Russia. Middle East history and politics is mind bogglingly complicated. It's naive to try to reduce it to one sentence. American only Middle East ally is Israel. Iraq and Iran used to be close partners. I wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey will be mentioned the same way some day.
RegnisGnaw 5y ago
Why the downvote? If you think I’m wrong I’ll take you up on a $500 bet.
- bradleyjg 5y ago
  You can’t worry about downvoters. It’ll drive you nuts. I’ve had completely innocuous comments downvoted days after I made them.
- aaron695 5y ago
  How would we bet? (I wasn't the downvote you refer to though) By 'airforce action on the dam' I assume you mean aircraft bombing of the dam. By when would this happen? (ie when would the bet be closed?) [edit] I will admit I thought your idea was crazy, but you are not totally wrong looking into it, but this is about Egypt objecting it being filled in one year, which they'll let pass if conditions are ok rather than war, and going from talking about it to actually bombing it means they have think about what if Ethiopia bombs the Aswan Dam in response. Geneva Convention also comes into it. They won't do it, all over it's being filled to quick. Bomb some military installations to make them slow down instead.
  - th5 5y ago
    Betmoose.com
dragonwriter 5y ago
> PRC will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Wait, you think the PRC will veto UNSC action on the dam (what is currently being considered) to force an Egyptian unilateral military response? What's the gain?
- RegnisGnaw 5y ago
  No no. My apologies. I’m thinking nothing will come out of the UNSC action. Ethiopia will proceed as planned. Egypt alone or in partner with Sudan will take unilateral military response. PRC will veto any UNSC action in response to that.
yaitsyaboi 5y ago
China has invested tons of money into East Africa and the dam can potentially give the economy of the region a huge boost. Why would they want the dam destroyed or tacitly support such an act?
asciimike 5y ago
I'm not a betting man, but, "Egyptian political leaders on Monday met Morsi to discuss the report. Apparently unaware their discussion was being televised live, some of them proposed hostile acts including aiding rebels inside Ethiopia and destroying the dam itself." From: https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/ethiopia-official-labels-egyptian-attack-proposals-over-new-nile-river-dam-day-dreaming/2013/06/05/fd340e10-cdc6-11e2-8573-3baeea6a2647_story.html https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washin...
- mrd3v0 5y ago
  You are quoting a scandal that happened about 7 years ago with a fundamentally different government. So much happened since then in the Egyptian political scene. A coup d'etat deposed that incompetent Islamist government and instilled a new dictator who has a very different agenda.
  - sirackh 5y ago
    The dam has been under construction for over 10 years now. The motives for these two men are different but when it comes to the Dam, they are aligned Moreover, the west has a vested interest to keep el-sisi happy. There is a suspicion about the recent political instability in Ethiopia is partly because of Egypt http://nemozen.semret.org/2021/06/pay-any-price-bear-any-burden.html?m=1 http://nemozen.semret.org/2021/06/pay-any-price-bear-any-bur...
- zarzavat 5y ago
  Ethiopia is really playing with fire. Cutting a country's main water supply is as legitimate a casus belli as it gets.
ilstormcloud 5y ago
There are a couple of reasons this is unlikely to happen. A. The dam already contains more than 4.9 billion cubic meters of water. That along with the wet season rain will mean breaching it will result in catastrophic flooding of Sudan which will result in death and loss of arable land. Each day that goes on, the water level is increasing, after a some time, Egypt itself will face flooding. B. Egypt has powerful military but it seems it was designed to fight Israel, not Ethiopia. The distances are just too great. Not many nations in the world have that kind of power projection in the world. That's an exclusive club of great powers like Russia, France, and superpowers like the USA and China. Most Egyptian fighter/bomber aircraft don't have the range to reach Ethiopia. And Sudan seem to be against war so they're unlikely to grant them passage as they will be the ones that suffer the consequences of a breached dam. The Egyptian airforce is getting new jets from France and Russia. Last I checked, which was months ago, only a few of those jets were delivered. It's unclear that the air crew have the resources, time, training to accomplish the difficult task of dam busting. C. The renaissance dam is a gravity dam. Giant concrete structure. It's not going to be easy to destroy. And attempts could just make it collapse on the water spillways. Which might end up even more disastrous. D. Dam or no dam, the water still flows from Ethiopia. And the Nile is not like the Amazon river in that it doesn't contain as much water. If Egyptian leadership plays a zero-sum game, where only they use the Nile then Ethiopia has zero incentive to protect and develop the water. In the age of climate change, this is a huge factor. Diverting some of the smaller tributaries would at most require a single grader and a few days of work. Diverting some 10 or 20% of the water would not be difficult. And that is far more disastrous to the stated objective of Egypt (Which is to maintain the colonial era agreement that allows them and Sudan 100% of the water). E. Ethiopia is currently a divided country. But when it comes to the dam, its people are 100% on the same page. Most western lenders don't finance any project on the Nile due to Egyptian lobbying. So Ethiopian populace paid for it out of pocket. Most salaried people payed for it out of pocket. WHat that usually means is giving up a month of your salary for the dam. And When Ethiopia is united, it is capable of putting up a good fight. As for the PRC, who do you think loaned to Ethiopia the money for buying the generators? And also, PRC has dams on similar rivers. It unlikely to positively accept such an act.
- anonydsfsfs 5y ago

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

atlasunshrugged 5y ago

I recently had the chance to chat with the former ambassador (US) to Ethiopia as I'm doing some research in the region and we talked briefly about this. He thought it was very unlikely there would be military action.

bradleyjg 5y ago

Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?

RegnisGnaw 5y ago
The US Government won’t approve of such an action. The Junta will swing to PRC for this. China doesn’t really care as but it would be a geopolitical win. This is Egypt’s lively hood. They won’t allow this to happen.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > The US Government won’t approve of such an action. While the Biden Administration is less absolutely in line with Egypt than Trump was on the issue, they only seem to be relatively deemphasizing GERD to apply more pressure on other humanitarian and security issues with Ethiopia. While I can't see them sanctioning a unilateral attack, absent some UNSC resolution that gets both sides onboard, I can't see them taking action against Egypt, even by way of anything more than symbolic at the UN, over it.
jryle70 5y ago
Allied? more like convenient partners. Both side needs each other. But Egypt doesn't hesitate to get cozy with Russia: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tension-sanctions-russia-arms-deal.html https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...
- Sideyon 5y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally
- bradleyjg 5y ago
  The US supported their coup and gives the regime billions of dollars in military aid a year despite a law that specifically forbids giving military aid to juntas that overthrow democratically elected governments. That certainly seems pretty ally-like.
  - jryle70 5y ago
    > The US supported their coup and gives the regime billions of dollars in military aid a year despite a law that specifically forbids giving military aid to juntas that overthrow democratically elected governments. Egypt was supported by the USSR for much of the Cold War. Prying them away from the Soviet's sphere, at the same time building a buffer for Israel, was a major coup. The aid is the price of that, regardless of who is in power in Cairo. Again, US ally doesn't buy SU-35 from Russia. Middle East history and politics is mind bogglingly complicated. It's naive to try to reduce it to one sentence. American only Middle East ally is Israel. Iraq and Iran used to be close partners. I wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey will be mentioned the same way some day.

RegnisGnaw 5y ago

Why the downvote? If you think I’m wrong I’ll take you up on a $500 bet.

bradleyjg 5y ago
You can’t worry about downvoters. It’ll drive you nuts. I’ve had completely innocuous comments downvoted days after I made them.
aaron695 5y ago
How would we bet? (I wasn't the downvote you refer to though) By 'airforce action on the dam' I assume you mean aircraft bombing of the dam. By when would this happen? (ie when would the bet be closed?) [edit] I will admit I thought your idea was crazy, but you are not totally wrong looking into it, but this is about Egypt objecting it being filled in one year, which they'll let pass if conditions are ok rather than war, and going from talking about it to actually bombing it means they have think about what if Ethiopia bombs the Aswan Dam in response. Geneva Convention also comes into it. They won't do it, all over it's being filled to quick. Bomb some military installations to make them slow down instead.
- th5 5y ago
  Betmoose.com

dragonwriter 5y ago

> PRC will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Wait, you think the PRC will veto UNSC action on the dam (what is currently being considered) to force an Egyptian unilateral military response? What's the gain?

RegnisGnaw 5y ago
No no. My apologies. I’m thinking nothing will come out of the UNSC action. Ethiopia will proceed as planned. Egypt alone or in partner with Sudan will take unilateral military response. PRC will veto any UNSC action in response to that.

yaitsyaboi 5y ago

China has invested tons of money into East Africa and the dam can potentially give the economy of the region a huge boost. Why would they want the dam destroyed or tacitly support such an act?

asciimike 5y ago

I'm not a betting man, but, "Egyptian political leaders on Monday met Morsi to discuss the report. Apparently unaware their discussion was being televised live, some of them proposed hostile acts including aiding rebels inside Ethiopia and destroying the dam itself." From: https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/ethiopia-official-labels-egyptian-attack-proposals-over-new-nile-river-dam-day-dreaming/2013/06/05/fd340e10-cdc6-11e2-8573-3baeea6a2647_story.html https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washin...

mrd3v0 5y ago
You are quoting a scandal that happened about 7 years ago with a fundamentally different government. So much happened since then in the Egyptian political scene. A coup d'etat deposed that incompetent Islamist government and instilled a new dictator who has a very different agenda.
- sirackh 5y ago
  The dam has been under construction for over 10 years now. The motives for these two men are different but when it comes to the Dam, they are aligned Moreover, the west has a vested interest to keep el-sisi happy. There is a suspicion about the recent political instability in Ethiopia is partly because of Egypt http://nemozen.semret.org/2021/06/pay-any-price-bear-any-burden.html?m=1 http://nemozen.semret.org/2021/06/pay-any-price-bear-any-bur...
zarzavat 5y ago
Ethiopia is really playing with fire. Cutting a country's main water supply is as legitimate a casus belli as it gets.

ilstormcloud 5y ago

There are a couple of reasons this is unlikely to happen. A. The dam already contains more than 4.9 billion cubic meters of water. That along with the wet season rain will mean breaching it will result in catastrophic flooding of Sudan which will result in death and loss of arable land. Each day that goes on, the water level is increasing, after a some time, Egypt itself will face flooding. B. Egypt has powerful military but it seems it was designed to fight Israel, not Ethiopia. The distances are just too great. Not many nations in the world have that kind of power projection in the world. That's an exclusive club of great powers like Russia, France, and superpowers like the USA and China. Most Egyptian fighter/bomber aircraft don't have the range to reach Ethiopia. And Sudan seem to be against war so they're unlikely to grant them passage as they will be the ones that suffer the consequences of a breached dam. The Egyptian airforce is getting new jets from France and Russia. Last I checked, which was months ago, only a few of those jets were delivered. It's unclear that the air crew have the resources, time, training to accomplish the difficult task of dam busting. C. The renaissance dam is a gravity dam. Giant concrete structure. It's not going to be easy to destroy. And attempts could just make it collapse on the water spillways. Which might end up even more disastrous. D. Dam or no dam, the water still flows from Ethiopia. And the Nile is not like the Amazon river in that it doesn't contain as much water. If Egyptian leadership plays a zero-sum game, where only they use the Nile then Ethiopia has zero incentive to protect and develop the water. In the age of climate change, this is a huge factor. Diverting some of the smaller tributaries would at most require a single grader and a few days of work. Diverting some 10 or 20% of the water would not be difficult. And that is far more disastrous to the stated objective of Egypt (Which is to maintain the colonial era agreement that allows them and Sudan 100% of the water). E. Ethiopia is currently a divided country. But when it comes to the dam, its people are 100% on the same page. Most western lenders don't finance any project on the Nile due to Egyptian lobbying. So Ethiopian populace paid for it out of pocket. Most salaried people payed for it out of pocket. WHat that usually means is giving up a month of your salary for the dam. And When Ethiopia is united, it is capable of putting up a good fight. As for the PRC, who do you think loaned to Ethiopia the money for buying the generators? And also, PRC has dams on similar rivers. It unlikely to positively accept such an act.

anonydsfsfs 5y ago