8 ms·

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade,

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net change: +250K (California grew 2.4M from 2010-2020[3]) California shrank in 2020 for the first time in decades seemingly because: - 50-80K excess deaths - 180-200K less intl immigration - 50K fewer births That's already a loss of 300K people as a one-time event, and the state is down 450K from a typical year. It's easy to come up with another 150K, it's a trivial not "mass exodus" number. But possibly a lot of those who left were missed in statistics. [1] https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 [2] https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/ https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/ [3] https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/ https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/ [4] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/state-and-territorial-data.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/state-and-territorial-data.... Edit: learning to format...

acenes 5y ago
Sorry, but "back of the napkin" calculations are quick order-of-magnitude type estimates based on reasonable guesses or first principles, not by looking up numbers on the web (napkin not big enough to write out URLs; maybe use envelope)
- Talanes 5y ago
  Are you really trying to gatekeep "back of the napkin?"
  - sidlls 5y ago
    How is it gatekeeping? We don't call estimates sourced with references "back of the napkin" calculations because they aren't.
    - Talanes 5y ago
      It was a small handful of quickly searchable numbers, not an in-depth review of sources and data.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
maxk42 5y ago
Excellent information! So what this tells me is based on migration alone, (since births / deaths are not indicative of intent to migrate) California has been flat at best, not counting an unknown number of international emigrants - so that number is likely lower. Given that those net immigration numbers have been dropping faster in the past couple years, we may indeed be seeing the tide turning on California immigration.
- Spooky23 5y ago
  If you’re not growing you’re dying. The thing about states like New York and California is the the fringes rot while everything is great in the core. The areas that are doing gangbuster business may be healthy at the moment, but other areas are dying. I don’t know California well, but I know New York, and that upstate and western NY have been in free fall for years with some exceptions. Industry left in the 80s… cities like Syracuse are husks. Agriculture has been in decline for a long time and dairy, once the strongest ag industry, is in a death spiral as industry consolidation and subsidized fake products take over. Even NYC is not as resilient as it was… financial services pay the bills much more so than in the past. California is obviously different, but I can’t imagine there aren’t parallels. Once the bell-weather tech giants start diversifying their physical locations that’s going to have a real impact.
  - jjeaff 5y ago
    All the tech giants have had locations in lots of other cities for many years now. Yet it hasn't seemed to affect their main California locations as of yet.
rayiner 5y ago
I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. If Indians come to California so they can get an H-1B from Facebook, but their kids them move to Tennessee because of poor quality of life in California, then that’s consistent with the “exodus” theory in my opinion. I’m an immigrant from Bangladesh and quite a few people in my family moved to NYC. It has lots of support for people with limited English skills, lots of service jobs, etc. But they moved to Long Island as soon as they got their feet under them. It was a proud moment for them when they made the move! I also wouldn’t count births or deaths. People don’t choose where they’re born. The exodus theory is generally supported by reference to “net internal migration.” (People coming from other states minus people moving to other states.) That’s really what illustrates people voting with their feet.
- thetrb 5y ago
  Moving from NYC to Long Island is slightly different than moving from California to Tennessee, so I don't really understand your point.
  - nodesocket 5y ago
    I did just this, left San Francisco for Nashville. Anecdotally I’ve been seeing a huge uptick in California plates here in Nashville. Great, I did the same thing, welcome, but now don’t ruin it.
  - lr4444lr 5y ago
    Other than the raw comparative distance, how is it different?
  - rayiner 5y ago
    The point is that they didn’t move to NYC because they love NYC as a place. They moved there because a Bangladeshi network can help you get a job at Dunkin Donuts and sign up for various social services. Once they had their legs under them they left the city.
- 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
fridif 5y ago
The influx of 100k people working warehouse jobs does not outweigh the 1,000 software engineers who left and will never return
- deep-root 5y ago
  It's the opposite, California is the new brain-drainer like US post WWII. https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain-continues/ https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain-continues/
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  California's larger number of domestic outmigrants tend to be lower income than the smaller number of domestic inmigrants. The people coming in are more likely to be software engineers, the people going out more likely to be the warehouse workers (or, even more likely, retirees.)
  - fridif 5y ago
    Tell me the number and types of software engineers who have left, and I will measure the loss
    - SamoyedFurFluff 5y ago
      That seems like moving the goalposts.
      - fridif 5y ago
        Whether it is or isnt, it's worth a discussion no?
throwawayboise 5y ago
> 50-80K excess deaths COVID was part of this, but Boomers are also reaching dying age.
- jjeaff 5y ago
  Excess deaths takes projected deaths into account. That's mostly covid. Or covid adjacent.
smsm42 5y ago
I think when people talk about "exodus" form California, they mean domestic migration mostly. Imagine the most extreme scenario (completely ridiculous in reality, but let's consider it for a moment) - all current California population has moved out, and then has been replaced with fresh immigrants. Would you consider this situation as "population exodus happened in California", in the same meaning as it is discussed now, or it would be more appropriate to say "nothing special happened"? I think it would be the former rather than the latter.
robomartin 5y ago
I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas. I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick of it. I can't make the move yet due to deep family ties that we must respect and be considerate of. My mother just passed two weeks ago. My father is in OK health but he is up there in years. Etc. As some of these ties dissolve it will be far easier to make the decision. And BTW, this isn't about Democrat vs. Republican states. In fact, one of my potential targets is Massachusetts. CA has simply gone looney. I can't even begin to make a list of the nonsense people and businesses living here have to put up with. I'll give you a few (of likely hundreds): They passed a tax added to your property taxes that is a function of any surface area on your property that does not allow rain to come into contact with dirt. So, yes, your driveway, patio, pergola, etc. All of it results in an additional tax assessment. For businesses, this means the entire parking lot is now a tax liability. Installed solar panels on a structure over some dirt? You just incurred an additional tax on your installation. I am currently helping a friend figure out the technical aspects of a business he wants to start. His initial target was Los Angeles. This business would likely bring dozens, if not well over a hundred jobs to wherever it might be located. We met with the building permit folks for LA County. They pretty much told us no less than three years for all the permits to be issued. He is now talking to people in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. He is also moving his existing company (~100 jobs) to wherever the new business will take root. And then there's the hundred billion dollar high speed train to nowhere that isn't even a high speed train and (if I remember correctly) might not even have ten miles of track built. The governor signed an executive order asking for 15% water conservation. At the same time we have no problem growing almonds here and providing this high-water-demand crop with all the water farmers need. Oh, and have you heard of the County of Los Angeles Business Property Tax? No, not what you might think. You have desks? Copiers? Chairs? Curtains? Equipment? Shelving? Yes? Anything inside the building you own or lease for your business is considered "business property" by the County of Los Angeles. And, as such, you are required to pay a tax to the county. Yes, a tax, permanently, every single year, on your chairs, desks, computers, coffee machine, etc. In fact, they call it a "privilege tax" for the privilege of doing business in or THROUGH the county. Yes, that's correct, if your business isn't in LA County but you do business in or DRIVE THROUGH the county, you are required to pay this tax. For companies with lots of equipment (like manufacturers) this could easily amount to $50K to $100K per year. In other words, a few jobs. There's a lot more. I'll stop there before my blood pressure goes through the roof.
Black101 5y ago
Births and deaths probably shouldn't be included in this? They aren't the ones deciding to leave or stay.

acenes 5y ago

Sorry, but "back of the napkin" calculations are quick order-of-magnitude type estimates based on reasonable guesses or first principles, not by looking up numbers on the web (napkin not big enough to write out URLs; maybe use envelope)

Talanes 5y ago
Are you really trying to gatekeep "back of the napkin?"
- sidlls 5y ago
  How is it gatekeeping? We don't call estimates sourced with references "back of the napkin" calculations because they aren't.
  - Talanes 5y ago
    It was a small handful of quickly searchable numbers, not an in-depth review of sources and data.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

maxk42 5y ago

Excellent information! So what this tells me is based on migration alone, (since births / deaths are not indicative of intent to migrate) California has been flat at best, not counting an unknown number of international emigrants - so that number is likely lower. Given that those net immigration numbers have been dropping faster in the past couple years, we may indeed be seeing the tide turning on California immigration.

Spooky23 5y ago
If you’re not growing you’re dying. The thing about states like New York and California is the the fringes rot while everything is great in the core. The areas that are doing gangbuster business may be healthy at the moment, but other areas are dying. I don’t know California well, but I know New York, and that upstate and western NY have been in free fall for years with some exceptions. Industry left in the 80s… cities like Syracuse are husks. Agriculture has been in decline for a long time and dairy, once the strongest ag industry, is in a death spiral as industry consolidation and subsidized fake products take over. Even NYC is not as resilient as it was… financial services pay the bills much more so than in the past. California is obviously different, but I can’t imagine there aren’t parallels. Once the bell-weather tech giants start diversifying their physical locations that’s going to have a real impact.
- jjeaff 5y ago
  All the tech giants have had locations in lots of other cities for many years now. Yet it hasn't seemed to affect their main California locations as of yet.

rayiner 5y ago

I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. If Indians come to California so they can get an H-1B from Facebook, but their kids them move to Tennessee because of poor quality of life in California, then that’s consistent with the “exodus” theory in my opinion. I’m an immigrant from Bangladesh and quite a few people in my family moved to NYC. It has lots of support for people with limited English skills, lots of service jobs, etc. But they moved to Long Island as soon as they got their feet under them. It was a proud moment for them when they made the move! I also wouldn’t count births or deaths. People don’t choose where they’re born. The exodus theory is generally supported by reference to “net internal migration.” (People coming from other states minus people moving to other states.) That’s really what illustrates people voting with their feet.

thetrb 5y ago
Moving from NYC to Long Island is slightly different than moving from California to Tennessee, so I don't really understand your point.
- nodesocket 5y ago
  I did just this, left San Francisco for Nashville. Anecdotally I’ve been seeing a huge uptick in California plates here in Nashville. Great, I did the same thing, welcome, but now don’t ruin it.
- lr4444lr 5y ago
  Other than the raw comparative distance, how is it different?
- rayiner 5y ago
  The point is that they didn’t move to NYC because they love NYC as a place. They moved there because a Bangladeshi network can help you get a job at Dunkin Donuts and sign up for various social services. Once they had their legs under them they left the city.
5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

fridif 5y ago

The influx of 100k people working warehouse jobs does not outweigh the 1,000 software engineers who left and will never return

deep-root 5y ago
It's the opposite, California is the new brain-drainer like US post WWII. https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain-continues/ https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain-continues/
dragonwriter 5y ago
California's larger number of domestic outmigrants tend to be lower income than the smaller number of domestic inmigrants. The people coming in are more likely to be software engineers, the people going out more likely to be the warehouse workers (or, even more likely, retirees.)
- fridif 5y ago
  Tell me the number and types of software engineers who have left, and I will measure the loss
  - SamoyedFurFluff 5y ago
    That seems like moving the goalposts.
    - fridif 5y ago
      Whether it is or isnt, it's worth a discussion no?

throwawayboise 5y ago

> 50-80K excess deaths COVID was part of this, but Boomers are also reaching dying age.

jjeaff 5y ago
Excess deaths takes projected deaths into account. That's mostly covid. Or covid adjacent.

smsm42 5y ago

I think when people talk about "exodus" form California, they mean domestic migration mostly. Imagine the most extreme scenario (completely ridiculous in reality, but let's consider it for a moment) - all current California population has moved out, and then has been replaced with fresh immigrants. Would you consider this situation as "population exodus happened in California", in the same meaning as it is discussed now, or it would be more appropriate to say "nothing special happened"? I think it would be the former rather than the latter.

robomartin 5y ago

I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas. I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick of it. I can't make the move yet due to deep family ties that we must respect and be considerate of. My mother just passed two weeks ago. My father is in OK health but he is up there in years. Etc. As some of these ties dissolve it will be far easier to make the decision. And BTW, this isn't about Democrat vs. Republican states. In fact, one of my potential targets is Massachusetts. CA has simply gone looney. I can't even begin to make a list of the nonsense people and businesses living here have to put up with. I'll give you a few (of likely hundreds): They passed a tax added to your property taxes that is a function of any surface area on your property that does not allow rain to come into contact with dirt. So, yes, your driveway, patio, pergola, etc. All of it results in an additional tax assessment. For businesses, this means the entire parking lot is now a tax liability. Installed solar panels on a structure over some dirt? You just incurred an additional tax on your installation. I am currently helping a friend figure out the technical aspects of a business he wants to start. His initial target was Los Angeles. This business would likely bring dozens, if not well over a hundred jobs to wherever it might be located. We met with the building permit folks for LA County. They pretty much told us no less than three years for all the permits to be issued. He is now talking to people in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. He is also moving his existing company (~100 jobs) to wherever the new business will take root. And then there's the hundred billion dollar high speed train to nowhere that isn't even a high speed train and (if I remember correctly) might not even have ten miles of track built. The governor signed an executive order asking for 15% water conservation. At the same time we have no problem growing almonds here and providing this high-water-demand crop with all the water farmers need. Oh, and have you heard of the County of Los Angeles Business Property Tax? No, not what you might think. You have desks? Copiers? Chairs? Curtains? Equipment? Shelving? Yes? Anything inside the building you own or lease for your business is considered "business property" by the County of Los Angeles. And, as such, you are required to pay a tax to the county. Yes, a tax, permanently, every single year, on your chairs, desks, computers, coffee machine, etc. In fact, they call it a "privilege tax" for the privilege of doing business in or THROUGH the county. Yes, that's correct, if your business isn't in LA County but you do business in or DRIVE THROUGH the county, you are required to pay this tax. For companies with lots of equipment (like manufacturers) this could easily amount to $50K to $100K per year. In other words, a few jobs. There's a lot more. I'll stop there before my blood pressure goes through the roof.

Black101 5y ago

Births and deaths probably shouldn't be included in this? They aren't the ones deciding to leave or stay.