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So that was written 4 years before the dot-com bubble, so the crypto bubble will pop in another... 2 years? Or will it be sooner since we live in the age of in

So that was written 4 years before the dot-com bubble, so the crypto bubble will pop in another... 2 years? Or will it be sooner since we live in the age of information?

asah 5y ago
NASDAQ was 1100 when this was written, which means if you'd done the (implied) opposite and instead bought, then even in the bottom of the coming crash, you were still up ~10%. And of course, if you'd held then you'd have pocketed 1000% in the pandemic.
- an_opabinia 5y ago
  Index investing was not pervasive then like it was today.
- soperj 5y ago
  how does that work with the companies that were delisted?
  - Centigonal 5y ago
    When you buy an index fund, your investment gets weighted across many companies. If some are delisted, the fund loses the money allocated to them, but not its whole portfolio. Then new companies are added to the index, and the fund's remaining assets get re-allocated to match the rules of the fund's underlying index.
matwood 5y ago
"Economists have predicted 50 of the last 2 recessions." I can state with certainty there will be a correction at some point in the future. What I can't tell you is when. Timing is everything in the market even more important than direction.
UncleOxidant 5y ago
I remember walking through the parking lot of a grocery store in about '97 and two guys who were out sweeping the sidewalk were discussing the merits of SCSI drives in the servers they were building apparently for an ISP they were setting up.
- blhack 5y ago
  This is such a funny story. Yeah, those guys were getting into something immediately preceding a short term crash. But they were right. If they kept at it and ignored the people telling them that the internet was a scam, there is a good chance that they’re very wealthy now.
QuesnayJr 5y ago
The last Bitcoin bubble popped six months after a taxi driver was telling me about how he just bought some crypto. It reminded me of the shoeshine boy anecdote.
- chrisco255 5y ago
  And now it's still higher than the last bubble, despite a 55% correction last month.
- professoretc 5y ago
  The housing bubble popped right after a tow truck driver told me he was getting his realtor's license.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
rsynnott 5y ago
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The collapse point of these sorts of delusional bubbles are notoriously difficult to predict.
99_00 5y ago
The only mention of internet stocks is one of the "shoeshine boys" being bearish on "high-tech stocks and Internet fads".
ineedasername 5y ago
Bitcoin is at 50% of the price it was not very long ago. Not sure if you'd call that a pop, but it's certainly got a leak.
Bayart 5y ago
There's no real bubble in crypto because the cyclical nature of BTC forces a mass-extinction event every few years. Give it 6 months/ a year.

So that was written 4 years before the dot-com bubble, so the crypto bubble will pop in another... 2 years? Or will it be sooner since we live in the age of information?

asah 5y ago

NASDAQ was 1100 when this was written, which means if you'd done the (implied) opposite and instead bought, then even in the bottom of the coming crash, you were still up ~10%. And of course, if you'd held then you'd have pocketed 1000% in the pandemic.

an_opabinia 5y ago
Index investing was not pervasive then like it was today.
soperj 5y ago
how does that work with the companies that were delisted?
- Centigonal 5y ago
  When you buy an index fund, your investment gets weighted across many companies. If some are delisted, the fund loses the money allocated to them, but not its whole portfolio. Then new companies are added to the index, and the fund's remaining assets get re-allocated to match the rules of the fund's underlying index.

matwood 5y ago

"Economists have predicted 50 of the last 2 recessions." I can state with certainty there will be a correction at some point in the future. What I can't tell you is when. Timing is everything in the market even more important than direction.

UncleOxidant 5y ago

I remember walking through the parking lot of a grocery store in about '97 and two guys who were out sweeping the sidewalk were discussing the merits of SCSI drives in the servers they were building apparently for an ISP they were setting up.

blhack 5y ago
This is such a funny story. Yeah, those guys were getting into something immediately preceding a short term crash. But they were right. If they kept at it and ignored the people telling them that the internet was a scam, there is a good chance that they’re very wealthy now.

QuesnayJr 5y ago

The last Bitcoin bubble popped six months after a taxi driver was telling me about how he just bought some crypto. It reminded me of the shoeshine boy anecdote.

chrisco255 5y ago
And now it's still higher than the last bubble, despite a 55% correction last month.
professoretc 5y ago
The housing bubble popped right after a tow truck driver told me he was getting his realtor's license.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

rsynnott 5y ago

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The collapse point of these sorts of delusional bubbles are notoriously difficult to predict.

99_00 5y ago

The only mention of internet stocks is one of the "shoeshine boys" being bearish on "high-tech stocks and Internet fads".

ineedasername 5y ago

Bitcoin is at 50% of the price it was not very long ago. Not sure if you'd call that a pop, but it's certainly got a leak.

Bayart 5y ago

There's no real bubble in crypto because the cyclical nature of BTC forces a mass-extinction event every few years. Give it 6 months/ a year.