It's probably something similar to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's game-theory system, which is used by the CIA claims has a 90% success rate, even when the experts w

It's probably something similar to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's game-theory system, which is used by the CIA claims has a 90% success rate, even when the experts who input the data get it wrong... It only needs 4 types of input: 1. Who has a stake in trying to shape the outcome. 2. What they *say* they want. 3. How focused they are on the issue compared to other issues. 4. How much persuasive influence could they exert if they chose to engage on the issue. http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_pr...