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Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

67 points by samizdis 5y ago

JacobiX 5y ago
The article mention : "Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir." From information that I can find, the filling can take up to 7 years !
- herodoturtle 5y ago
  That's a solid insight (the bit about 7 years), thanks for finding that. More detailed excerpt for other HN readers stumbling on this comment: > Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest growing economies in recent years, insists the dam will not affect the onward flow of water. > But Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir. > Egypt considers the dam as a threat to its existence and Sudan has warned millions of lives will be at "great risk" if Ethiopia unilaterally fills the dam. > A decade of negotiations have failed to result in a deal.
  - beerandt 5y ago
    The issue is: there are treaties that split water rights between countries, but flooding beyond 100% of capacity at any given point isn't counted. Egypt has been taking advantage of this, allowing the "overflow" from their dam/lake nassar to be syphoned off into the desert, to the extent of trying to develop an entirely new drainage valley into farmland. It is a mega project. Any upriver country that is able to divert the "overflow" water before it gets too Egypt can keep it. So it's basically an argument over who gets to keep the surplus in the water balance of the river. >[1]Use of Nile resources is governed by the Nile Basin Initiative; but the Toshka project does not breach the agreement as water is diverted from Lake Nasser only after heavy water flows upstream have raised lake levels above 178 metres (584 ft) (see above). [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Valley_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Valley_Project [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshka_Lakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshka_Lakes
- smnrchrds 5y ago
  Also to put things in context, if they rename Egypt to Nile: The Country, it would be more accurate. Egypt is a country of 100 million people, all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta. It's unbelievable how much Egypt is dependant on Nile for its existence. Any disruption in Nile will have severe negative effects on the lives of 100 million people and be an existential threat to Egypt. Just take a look at Egypt's population heat map: https://vividmaps.com/population-density-egypt/ https://vividmaps.com/population-density-egypt/ https://i.redd.it/hs2wfeq62c511.jpg https://i.redd.it/hs2wfeq62c511.jpg
  - chrisseaton 5y ago
    > all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta Your own heat map shows that this isn’t the case - they also live on the coast.
    - sebmellen 5y ago
      That’s ridiculous. The darkest areas of the map are quite literally all on the Nile or in the delta.
      - chrisseaton 5y ago
        I don’t know what you think a delta is, but for example Mersa Matruh isn’t in it.
        csomar 5y ago
        Marsa Matruh is like 60-70k? Egypt has 104 Millions. There are some in Matruh, Sinai, Port Said, or Sharm-Sheikh. But they are insignificant. The majority are living on the nile.
        chrisseaton 5y ago
        > The majority are living on the nile. Earlier it was ‘all’.
- MereInterest 5y ago
  I'm lacking a bit of context. Your comment implies that 7 years is a long time to fill a reservoir. I can't find, either in your comment or in the article, mention of whether that time is long due to the amount of water needed (the bathtub is big), or whether that timeline is deliberately long to avoid impacting downstream usage (the bathtub faucet is at a trickle). From the article, the Nile river is estimated to carry 84 billion cubic meters per year, so the reservoir holds roughly one Nile-year of water. Filling over 7 years means that the downstream flow would be reduced by ~1/7 during that time period.
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    This is an earlier tributary, so it’s definitely not going to be the equivalent of the full Nile in volume.
bilbo0s 5y ago
Cairo claims a historic right to the river dating from a 1929 treaty between Egypt and Sudan represented by colonial power Britain And A 1959 treaty boosted Egypt's allocation to around 66 percent of the river's flow, with 22 percent for Sudan Wow. That sounds like it obliges Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda to collectively use no more than 12% of the Nile's flow. Colonialism was not good to Africans south of the sahara. No wonder they got together and made their own treaty.
- aaaxyz 5y ago
  Those countries have other sources of fresh water besides the Nile
  - bilbo0s 5y ago
    Yes, but those sources, in many cases, are also source of the Nile. I mean, as a matter of hydrology, it's a basin. Unless you're implying that they can only take 12% of the flow of Nile tributaries, but would be free to take 100% of the flow from lakes that feed the Nile tributaries? Somehow, I don't think that's what the colonial treaties meant. I'm pretty certain any draw down of flow from Lake Tana for instance, would also violate the treaty. Definitely any draw down of flow from Lake Victoria would be a violation. There's no way the Sudan and Egypt would be OK with that.
    - RegnisGnaw 5y ago
      But Ethiopia is not a party to either of the two treaties.
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    Yes, and this is only one of the sources of the Nile.
  - ilstormcloud 5y ago
    This claim loses significance when you consider 70% of Ethiopia's water resource is in the Nile basin. There is no development without using that water.
atlasunshrugged 5y ago
FYI: Bloomberg had an interesting article out just a few hours ago about the Ethiopian elections (tl;dr the current PM won in a massive landslide although some regions didn't participate and some opposition groups sat out the election). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-10/ethiopian-prime-minister-abiy-s-party-wins-national-election https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-10/ethiopian...
RegnisGnaw 5y ago
I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  I recently had the chance to chat with the former ambassador (US) to Ethiopia as I'm doing some research in the region and we talked briefly about this. He thought it was very unlikely there would be military action.
- bradleyjg 5y ago
  Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?
  - RegnisGnaw 5y ago
    The US Government won’t approve of such an action. The Junta will swing to PRC for this. China doesn’t really care as but it would be a geopolitical win. This is Egypt’s lively hood. They won’t allow this to happen.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > The US Government won’t approve of such an action. While the Biden Administration is less absolutely in line with Egypt than Trump was on the issue, they only seem to be relatively deemphasizing GERD to apply more pressure on other humanitarian and security issues with Ethiopia. While I can't see them sanctioning a unilateral attack, absent some UNSC resolution that gets both sides onboard, I can't see them taking action against Egypt, even by way of anything more than symbolic at the UN, over it.
  - jryle70 5y ago
    Allied? more like convenient partners. Both side needs each other. But Egypt doesn't hesitate to get cozy with Russia: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tension-sanctions-russia-arms-deal.html https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...
forrestthewoods 5y ago
Gross. Dams are renewable energy, but they’re not “clean” energy. Their environmental catastrophes both upstream and downstream. The world will be a better place when we abolish dams and replace them with actually clean energy.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  I think the world will be a better place when people have access to fundamental things like clean water, power, and adequate nourishment. Let the major polluters of the world figure out carbon capture before forcing these standards on developing countries that have almost no responsibility for historic emissions.
- exporectomy 5y ago
  If you think dams are bad, wait till you see natural lakes.
- yaitsyaboi 5y ago
  You don’t think it’s a little unfair to damn a country where roughly half of people don’t have electricity for not using the very best source? The average American uses 186 times more power than an average Ethiopian. It doesn’t make sense to ask them to try to wrestle with that kind of poverty and also shoulder the same burden as countries using hundreds of times more energy.
- ilstormcloud 5y ago
  Hey, 60% of Ethiopians don't have powers. Take a look at "earth at night" satellite images. Ethiopia is dark. I'm an Ethiopian national and this affects me deeply. I am tired of desensitizing myself away from the plight of 4 foot 10 women carrying a load of firewood heavier than them.
  - forrestthewoods 5y ago
    I’d probably support coal over hydro. At least coal can be seamlessly transitioned to natural gas, solar, nuclear, etc.
asciimike 5y ago
As a side note, I really enjoyed [Prisoners of Geography](https://www.amazon.com/Prisoners-Geography-Explain-Everything-Politics/dp/1501121472 https://www.amazon.com/Prisoners-Geography-Explain-Everythin...) which discusses this dam, as well as other political disputes, viewed through the lens of geography (e.g. why the Saichen Glacier matters).
- neolog 5y ago
  That's an affiliate link
  - asciimike 5y ago
    No longer!
ArkanExplorer 5y ago
Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptian and Muslim culture which prioritises volume of children ahead of all else. Egypt will suffer if they cannot bring their population to sustainable levels. The President of Egypt agrees: https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/98679/Egypt-s-population-growth-has-to-be-cut-to-400K https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/98679/Egypt-s-populatio... Keep in mind that Egypt has a scientific output equivalent to Luxembourg: https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/All/global/All/score https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/All/glo... Despite having a population 166x larger. So, Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation.
- vidarh 5y ago
  Egypt's fertility rate has as far as I can tell dropped every year but a handful since the late 1950's: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=EG https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... To suggest this implies some cultural resistance to reducing fertility seems to be fundamentally flawed. It also doesn't really work like that - even countries with a culture that involves favouring large families see fertility rates drop as they develop. This is not a "meme", but a simple observation from data that show that it has happened consistently to every developing country - including Egypt. What you can not do is assume it will happen at the same rate everywhere.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    "every year but a handful" True, but the effect of TFR on total population depends on the base too. A growth from 3.0 to 3.5 between 2005 and 2015 means quite a lot of extra children born, because Egypt of 2005 had already 75 million people.
ilstormcloud 5y ago
To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use the Nile river for irrigation and power generation. * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain (Then ruling Egypt) brokered agreements which "gave" Egypt usage and veto rights. Most of the Nile basin countries were colonies of GB and they had no say in the matter (that I can find recorded in history). Ethiopia was an exception as it was not colonized, but it was not consulted by the British and is not signatory to the agreements. And It was fighting to maintain its independence against Europe so it had little power to spare for water politics at the time. * In 1959, The Sudanese and Egyptians governments met and awarded each other 18.5 billion cubic meter of water and 55 billion cubic meters of water respectively. Again ignoring the other Nile basin countries, including Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia.... * Egypt is unfortunately threatening us with war if there is a drop in their water share. I can basically paraphrase their UNSC statement as saying "Peace and security will be impacted in the horn of Africa because we will start war on Ethiopia". * I am an Ethiopian, and I realize that Egypt relies on the Nile. As far as I can see, public opinion here (to the extent I see it) is not about depriving Egypt of water and life, it's about living a life of dignity. It's about a fair and equitable use of the water. Again, unfortunately, Egypt is signing military deals with Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda in what is perceived here as an intimidation campaign. My two cents, there is 0 chance these countries will ever stand against Ethiopia regarding the Nile water usage. =I am perplexed that they are making an enemy out of Ethiopia when 80% of the Nile comes from here. That's no way to secure your future. As a lover of ancient history, I am fascinated by Egypt and their reach history. I think the way to secure Egypt's future is by cooperation with all Nile basin countries to protect and further develop the Nile river basin such that the we raise the total water contained in the basin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_politics_in_the_Nile_Basin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_politics_in_the_Nile_Bas...
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  I didn't realize that the number of people without power in Ethiopia was quite so high, my impression was that it was more developed. I also have 0% belief that Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti would take military action against Ethiopia. They all have their own internal problems and I doubt they would want to get mixed up in a war in which they have little to benefit from (what would the Egyptians give them?). Random question since you're from the country - what are the feelings in Ethiopia with the elections, Tigray, etc.? I'm headed there in 1.5 weeks for my first time.
Popegaf 5y ago
Let's say Ethopia goes through with this. Would it be cheaper to start a war against them or spend money on tech to reduce dependence on the Nile? I imagine that a campaign to improve education in Egypt and train the populace for jobs to reduce Nile dependence would be a major boost to the Egyptian economy. It might drive the country to innovate and fuel a boom in their tech and engineering sector. Are there any feasible projects to that end?
- csomar 5y ago
  You probably can't do it fast enough. Also without water, you'll likely have more serious problems than educating the population or creating high-tech stuff.
- DocTomoe 5y ago
  This is a very Silicon Valley approach to a problem. How do you expect to solve a water crisis with tech and engineering, within months, not decades? There's only so much desalination plants you can build and operate... Given that this can easily be understood as an existential threat to Egypt, war seems likely.
  - Popegaf 5y ago
    Why is thinking of ways to solve a problem without war a "Silicon Valley approach"? I think you need to assess the situation and calculate the costs and benefits of every approach. - How many people will die due to war and how many will die due to the dam? - How long will it take for a war to yield results? - Are there other possible solutions that will yield results more quickly? - What will be the effects of the different approaches? I haven't searched for a list, but Israel desalinates >500M m³ of seawater per year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in_Israel#Seawater_desalination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in... Saudi Arabia is going to start building solar domes for the line city Neom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvN1oV3AJ90 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvN1oV3AJ90 Cario, Egypt has ~3.4k hours of sun per year https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshine,Cairo,Egypt https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshi... They need about 80B m³ per year (mostly due to agriculture) of which 55.5B m³ come from the Nile. - https://www.worldometers.info/water/egypt-water/#water-use https://www.worldometers.info/water/egypt-water/#water-use - https://water.fanack.com/egypt/water-use/ https://water.fanack.com/egypt/water-use/ Those 55.5B m³ won't just disappear like that. Again, how much would it cost to scale desalination up, reduce agricultural water and land use, and how long would it take to do it? How much would it cost to wage a war and when would it be over? Years? Decades? Would it be easier to find out who's been contracted to build the damn and find a way to get them not to do it? --------- It's easy to be the "it won't work" person and to reach for the bluntest tool in the metaphorical shed without putting in a modicum of effort to explore another avenue.
dalbasal 5y ago
Unfortunately, we have no real way, even theoretically of resolving these disputes besides war, or negotiations premised on the possibility of war. Hopefully (and IMO likely), this will all be resolved by negotiated compromises. All sides are currently developing their credible threats of war to be used as currency at a negotiation table. There's a pretty real "mutual destruction" incentive to keep the conflict contained. Dams are vulnerable.
- sufficer 5y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise
unixhero 5y ago
Ah yes, the water wars of the future are here.
TazeTSchnitzel 5y ago
The YouTube channel Caspian Report has a great video on this subject (with a lot more detail and context): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg That channel's content is remarkably well-made and gives a great insight into geopolitics. I wish most YouTube content would be half as good as Caspian Report is.
- machinehermiter 5y ago
  I just listened last night on youtube to the talk Gyude Moore: “China in Africa: An African Perspective” Really phenomenal discussion. I felt like my level of ignorance about Africa is pretty incredible and especially from an infrastructure perspective.
  - TazeTSchnitzel 5y ago
    The European powers really screwed over Africa. I think the general Western ignorance of the place is also a symptom of this.

67 points by samizdis 5y ago

The article mention : "Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir." From information that I can find, the filling can take up to 7 years !

herodoturtle 5y ago
That's a solid insight (the bit about 7 years), thanks for finding that. More detailed excerpt for other HN readers stumbling on this comment: > Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest growing economies in recent years, insists the dam will not affect the onward flow of water. > But Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir. > Egypt considers the dam as a threat to its existence and Sudan has warned millions of lives will be at "great risk" if Ethiopia unilaterally fills the dam. > A decade of negotiations have failed to result in a deal.
- beerandt 5y ago
  The issue is: there are treaties that split water rights between countries, but flooding beyond 100% of capacity at any given point isn't counted. Egypt has been taking advantage of this, allowing the "overflow" from their dam/lake nassar to be syphoned off into the desert, to the extent of trying to develop an entirely new drainage valley into farmland. It is a mega project. Any upriver country that is able to divert the "overflow" water before it gets too Egypt can keep it. So it's basically an argument over who gets to keep the surplus in the water balance of the river. >[1]Use of Nile resources is governed by the Nile Basin Initiative; but the Toshka project does not breach the agreement as water is diverted from Lake Nasser only after heavy water flows upstream have raised lake levels above 178 metres (584 ft) (see above). [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Valley_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Valley_Project [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshka_Lakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshka_Lakes
smnrchrds 5y ago
Also to put things in context, if they rename Egypt to Nile: The Country, it would be more accurate. Egypt is a country of 100 million people, all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta. It's unbelievable how much Egypt is dependant on Nile for its existence. Any disruption in Nile will have severe negative effects on the lives of 100 million people and be an existential threat to Egypt. Just take a look at Egypt's population heat map: https://vividmaps.com/population-density-egypt/ https://vividmaps.com/population-density-egypt/ https://i.redd.it/hs2wfeq62c511.jpg https://i.redd.it/hs2wfeq62c511.jpg
- chrisseaton 5y ago
  > all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta Your own heat map shows that this isn’t the case - they also live on the coast.
  - sebmellen 5y ago
    That’s ridiculous. The darkest areas of the map are quite literally all on the Nile or in the delta.
    - chrisseaton 5y ago
      I don’t know what you think a delta is, but for example Mersa Matruh isn’t in it.
      - csomar 5y ago
        Marsa Matruh is like 60-70k? Egypt has 104 Millions. There are some in Matruh, Sinai, Port Said, or Sharm-Sheikh. But they are insignificant. The majority are living on the nile.
        chrisseaton 5y ago
        > The majority are living on the nile. Earlier it was ‘all’.
MereInterest 5y ago
I'm lacking a bit of context. Your comment implies that 7 years is a long time to fill a reservoir. I can't find, either in your comment or in the article, mention of whether that time is long due to the amount of water needed (the bathtub is big), or whether that timeline is deliberately long to avoid impacting downstream usage (the bathtub faucet is at a trickle). From the article, the Nile river is estimated to carry 84 billion cubic meters per year, so the reservoir holds roughly one Nile-year of water. Filling over 7 years means that the downstream flow would be reduced by ~1/7 during that time period.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  This is an earlier tributary, so it’s definitely not going to be the equivalent of the full Nile in volume.

bilbo0s 5y ago

Cairo claims a historic right to the river dating from a 1929 treaty between Egypt and Sudan represented by colonial power Britain And A 1959 treaty boosted Egypt's allocation to around 66 percent of the river's flow, with 22 percent for Sudan Wow. That sounds like it obliges Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda to collectively use no more than 12% of the Nile's flow. Colonialism was not good to Africans south of the sahara. No wonder they got together and made their own treaty.

aaaxyz 5y ago
Those countries have other sources of fresh water besides the Nile
- bilbo0s 5y ago
  Yes, but those sources, in many cases, are also source of the Nile. I mean, as a matter of hydrology, it's a basin. Unless you're implying that they can only take 12% of the flow of Nile tributaries, but would be free to take 100% of the flow from lakes that feed the Nile tributaries? Somehow, I don't think that's what the colonial treaties meant. I'm pretty certain any draw down of flow from Lake Tana for instance, would also violate the treaty. Definitely any draw down of flow from Lake Victoria would be a violation. There's no way the Sudan and Egypt would be OK with that.
  - RegnisGnaw 5y ago
    But Ethiopia is not a party to either of the two treaties.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  Yes, and this is only one of the sources of the Nile.
- ilstormcloud 5y ago
  This claim loses significance when you consider 70% of Ethiopia's water resource is in the Nile basin. There is no development without using that water.

atlasunshrugged 5y ago

FYI: Bloomberg had an interesting article out just a few hours ago about the Ethiopian elections (tl;dr the current PM won in a massive landslide although some regions didn't participate and some opposition groups sat out the election). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-10/ethiopian-prime-minister-abiy-s-party-wins-national-election https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-10/ethiopian...

RegnisGnaw 5y ago

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
I recently had the chance to chat with the former ambassador (US) to Ethiopia as I'm doing some research in the region and we talked briefly about this. He thought it was very unlikely there would be military action.
bradleyjg 5y ago
Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?
- RegnisGnaw 5y ago
  The US Government won’t approve of such an action. The Junta will swing to PRC for this. China doesn’t really care as but it would be a geopolitical win. This is Egypt’s lively hood. They won’t allow this to happen.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > The US Government won’t approve of such an action. While the Biden Administration is less absolutely in line with Egypt than Trump was on the issue, they only seem to be relatively deemphasizing GERD to apply more pressure on other humanitarian and security issues with Ethiopia. While I can't see them sanctioning a unilateral attack, absent some UNSC resolution that gets both sides onboard, I can't see them taking action against Egypt, even by way of anything more than symbolic at the UN, over it.
- jryle70 5y ago
  Allied? more like convenient partners. Both side needs each other. But Egypt doesn't hesitate to get cozy with Russia: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tension-sanctions-russia-arms-deal.html https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...

forrestthewoods 5y ago

Gross. Dams are renewable energy, but they’re not “clean” energy. Their environmental catastrophes both upstream and downstream. The world will be a better place when we abolish dams and replace them with actually clean energy.

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
I think the world will be a better place when people have access to fundamental things like clean water, power, and adequate nourishment. Let the major polluters of the world figure out carbon capture before forcing these standards on developing countries that have almost no responsibility for historic emissions.
exporectomy 5y ago
If you think dams are bad, wait till you see natural lakes.
yaitsyaboi 5y ago
You don’t think it’s a little unfair to damn a country where roughly half of people don’t have electricity for not using the very best source? The average American uses 186 times more power than an average Ethiopian. It doesn’t make sense to ask them to try to wrestle with that kind of poverty and also shoulder the same burden as countries using hundreds of times more energy.
ilstormcloud 5y ago
Hey, 60% of Ethiopians don't have powers. Take a look at "earth at night" satellite images. Ethiopia is dark. I'm an Ethiopian national and this affects me deeply. I am tired of desensitizing myself away from the plight of 4 foot 10 women carrying a load of firewood heavier than them.
- forrestthewoods 5y ago
  I’d probably support coal over hydro. At least coal can be seamlessly transitioned to natural gas, solar, nuclear, etc.

asciimike 5y ago

As a side note, I really enjoyed [Prisoners of Geography](https://www.amazon.com/Prisoners-Geography-Explain-Everything-Politics/dp/1501121472 https://www.amazon.com/Prisoners-Geography-Explain-Everythin...) which discusses this dam, as well as other political disputes, viewed through the lens of geography (e.g. why the Saichen Glacier matters).

neolog 5y ago
That's an affiliate link
- asciimike 5y ago
  No longer!

ArkanExplorer 5y ago

Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptian and Muslim culture which prioritises volume of children ahead of all else. Egypt will suffer if they cannot bring their population to sustainable levels. The President of Egypt agrees: https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/98679/Egypt-s-population-growth-has-to-be-cut-to-400K https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/98679/Egypt-s-populatio... Keep in mind that Egypt has a scientific output equivalent to Luxembourg: https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/All/global/All/score https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/All/glo... Despite having a population 166x larger. So, Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation.

vidarh 5y ago
Egypt's fertility rate has as far as I can tell dropped every year but a handful since the late 1950's: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=EG https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... To suggest this implies some cultural resistance to reducing fertility seems to be fundamentally flawed. It also doesn't really work like that - even countries with a culture that involves favouring large families see fertility rates drop as they develop. This is not a "meme", but a simple observation from data that show that it has happened consistently to every developing country - including Egypt. What you can not do is assume it will happen at the same rate everywhere.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  "every year but a handful" True, but the effect of TFR on total population depends on the base too. A growth from 3.0 to 3.5 between 2005 and 2015 means quite a lot of extra children born, because Egypt of 2005 had already 75 million people.

ilstormcloud 5y ago

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use the Nile river for irrigation and power generation. * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain (Then ruling Egypt) brokered agreements which "gave" Egypt usage and veto rights. Most of the Nile basin countries were colonies of GB and they had no say in the matter (that I can find recorded in history). Ethiopia was an exception as it was not colonized, but it was not consulted by the British and is not signatory to the agreements. And It was fighting to maintain its independence against Europe so it had little power to spare for water politics at the time. * In 1959, The Sudanese and Egyptians governments met and awarded each other 18.5 billion cubic meter of water and 55 billion cubic meters of water respectively. Again ignoring the other Nile basin countries, including Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia.... * Egypt is unfortunately threatening us with war if there is a drop in their water share. I can basically paraphrase their UNSC statement as saying "Peace and security will be impacted in the horn of Africa because we will start war on Ethiopia". * I am an Ethiopian, and I realize that Egypt relies on the Nile. As far as I can see, public opinion here (to the extent I see it) is not about depriving Egypt of water and life, it's about living a life of dignity. It's about a fair and equitable use of the water. Again, unfortunately, Egypt is signing military deals with Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda in what is perceived here as an intimidation campaign. My two cents, there is 0 chance these countries will ever stand against Ethiopia regarding the Nile water usage. =I am perplexed that they are making an enemy out of Ethiopia when 80% of the Nile comes from here. That's no way to secure your future. As a lover of ancient history, I am fascinated by Egypt and their reach history. I think the way to secure Egypt's future is by cooperation with all Nile basin countries to protect and further develop the Nile river basin such that the we raise the total water contained in the basin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_politics_in_the_Nile_Basin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_politics_in_the_Nile_Bas...

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
I didn't realize that the number of people without power in Ethiopia was quite so high, my impression was that it was more developed. I also have 0% belief that Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti would take military action against Ethiopia. They all have their own internal problems and I doubt they would want to get mixed up in a war in which they have little to benefit from (what would the Egyptians give them?). Random question since you're from the country - what are the feelings in Ethiopia with the elections, Tigray, etc.? I'm headed there in 1.5 weeks for my first time.

Popegaf 5y ago

Let's say Ethopia goes through with this. Would it be cheaper to start a war against them or spend money on tech to reduce dependence on the Nile? I imagine that a campaign to improve education in Egypt and train the populace for jobs to reduce Nile dependence would be a major boost to the Egyptian economy. It might drive the country to innovate and fuel a boom in their tech and engineering sector. Are there any feasible projects to that end?

csomar 5y ago
You probably can't do it fast enough. Also without water, you'll likely have more serious problems than educating the population or creating high-tech stuff.
DocTomoe 5y ago
This is a very Silicon Valley approach to a problem. How do you expect to solve a water crisis with tech and engineering, within months, not decades? There's only so much desalination plants you can build and operate... Given that this can easily be understood as an existential threat to Egypt, war seems likely.
- Popegaf 5y ago
  Why is thinking of ways to solve a problem without war a "Silicon Valley approach"? I think you need to assess the situation and calculate the costs and benefits of every approach. - How many people will die due to war and how many will die due to the dam? - How long will it take for a war to yield results? - Are there other possible solutions that will yield results more quickly? - What will be the effects of the different approaches? I haven't searched for a list, but Israel desalinates >500M m³ of seawater per year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in_Israel#Seawater_desalination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in... Saudi Arabia is going to start building solar domes for the line city Neom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvN1oV3AJ90 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvN1oV3AJ90 Cario, Egypt has ~3.4k hours of sun per year https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshine,Cairo,Egypt https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshi... They need about 80B m³ per year (mostly due to agriculture) of which 55.5B m³ come from the Nile. - https://www.worldometers.info/water/egypt-water/#water-use https://www.worldometers.info/water/egypt-water/#water-use - https://water.fanack.com/egypt/water-use/ https://water.fanack.com/egypt/water-use/ Those 55.5B m³ won't just disappear like that. Again, how much would it cost to scale desalination up, reduce agricultural water and land use, and how long would it take to do it? How much would it cost to wage a war and when would it be over? Years? Decades? Would it be easier to find out who's been contracted to build the damn and find a way to get them not to do it? --------- It's easy to be the "it won't work" person and to reach for the bluntest tool in the metaphorical shed without putting in a modicum of effort to explore another avenue.

dalbasal 5y ago

Unfortunately, we have no real way, even theoretically of resolving these disputes besides war, or negotiations premised on the possibility of war. Hopefully (and IMO likely), this will all be resolved by negotiated compromises. All sides are currently developing their credible threats of war to be used as currency at a negotiation table. There's a pretty real "mutual destruction" incentive to keep the conflict contained. Dams are vulnerable.

sufficer 5y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise

unixhero 5y ago

Ah yes, the water wars of the future are here.

TazeTSchnitzel 5y ago

The YouTube channel Caspian Report has a great video on this subject (with a lot more detail and context): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg That channel's content is remarkably well-made and gives a great insight into geopolitics. I wish most YouTube content would be half as good as Caspian Report is.

machinehermiter 5y ago
I just listened last night on youtube to the talk Gyude Moore: “China in Africa: An African Perspective” Really phenomenal discussion. I felt like my level of ignorance about Africa is pretty incredible and especially from an infrastructure perspective.
- TazeTSchnitzel 5y ago
  The European powers really screwed over Africa. I think the general Western ignorance of the place is also a symptom of this.