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I'm not sure it wouldn't have worked. Sweden had something like 80% support to only have event limits at 500 and no other restrictions, with people arguing in p

I'm not sure it wouldn't have worked. Sweden had something like 80% support to only have event limits at 500 and no other restrictions, with people arguing in public forums that those dying deserved it and that it was worth it. I had a doctor outright scold me for wearing a mask to the hospital here (checkup for crohns disease which I take immunosupressants for) and didnt see a single other mask in the hospital until December 2020. o.O. Smaller countries with limited access to the wider discussions in English can turn very weird.

gus_massa 5y ago
>> I was told "The people trust the government" with a 70% approval. I mean I killed what 10% of the country, but hey... the people have short memories! > Sweden had something like 80% support to only have event limits at 500 and no other restrictions But even now Sweden has 0.15% of the population killed by covid-19, that is like 100 times smaller than the 10% that the GP got in the simulation.
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  Also note that as of right now, Sweden has half the number of deaths/capita compared to Czechia, and is below the EU average, despite having had the least restrictive policy. This game perpetuates the gigantic fallacy that government intervention is the biggest factor determining spread and outcome, when in reality it's geography, structural differences, and enormous amounts of luck.
  - carlmr 5y ago
    I would also say it's cultural. Swedes keep a distance without you telling them, Spaniards do not.
    - disgruntledphd2 5y ago
      The biggest difference between Sweden an Spain is the presence of multi generational households in the latter.
      - carlmr 5y ago
        That's a good point, too.
    - native_samples 5y ago
      Those sorts of explanations are all totally ad-hoc and have no real scientific validity. The English are famously stand-offish yet have worse results than Sweden. Texas and Florida are culturally very similar to other parts of the USA, yet unlocked without experiencing any change in their situation whatsoever and have seen similar results to other US states. You can find counter-examples like that for more or less any posited influential factor on COVID outcomes, except for obesity. Government interventions in particular don't correlate well with anything. The models are all built on the assumptions that they should have a huge impact, but real data tells us differently - the assumptions the models are built on are unsound. IMHO it's really a pity the game authors used this to influence the Czech parliament. These models were never validated against reality before being thrown at policymakers, instead the (sad to call them this) "scientists" simply assumed that because the underlying theories are simple they must therefore also be correct. I've had actual scientists tell me "of course lockdown works, it's basic germ theory" which demonstrates a pretty chaotic confusion between theory and reality, but that sort of attitude can be found everywhere in the academic modelling world.
      - gus_massa 5y ago
        > IMHO it's really a pity the game authors used this to influence the Czech parliament. Remember that politicians are in the tradeoff and bullshit business. They assume every they are told is bullshit, they repackage it and than sell it to us. My guess is if they don't like what the scientist and economist say, they just get another group they like more. It's probably a mix of the advice they get, with the tradeoff they want to make. > "of course lockdown works" Of course they work! The question is how much it affect the transmission ratio and the economic cost, and if people will follow the restrictions. I like that this was call the "Corona Game" and not the "Corona Simulator". Some people noticed that in this game "doing nothing" does not drop the popularity to 0, and I think that it's very unrealistic. Other people noticed that closing the schools has a big effect in the game, but the different parts of the government here in Argentina disagree https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27783454 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27783454
        native_samples 5y ago
  - lm28469 5y ago
    > Sweden has half the number of deaths/capita compared to Czechia > when in reality it's geography, structural differences, Why did you cherry pick Czechia when you have neighbouring countries which are much more comparable in term of climate, culture, geography, density, &c. Finland: 176 deaths per 1m hab Norway: 146 deaths per 1m hab Sweden: 1437 deaths per 1m hab
collyw 5y ago
> with people arguing in public forums that those dying deserved it and that it was worth it. I would be very surprised if anyone actually argued that.
zibzab 5y ago
> I had a doctor outright scold me for wearing a mask to the hospital here This is HIGHLY irregular. Right before the 2020 summer all Swedish hospitals started with corona security measures: you could not enter the hospital before talking to someone (in full protective gear) and at the very least having your temperature measured. If you were allowed inside and masks were available you would be required to wear one. Source: visited hospitals and care centres multiple times with sick family members.

gus_massa 5y ago

>> I was told "The people trust the government" with a 70% approval. I mean I killed what 10% of the country, but hey... the people have short memories! > Sweden had something like 80% support to only have event limits at 500 and no other restrictions But even now Sweden has 0.15% of the population killed by covid-19, that is like 100 times smaller than the 10% that the GP got in the simulation.

henrikschroder 5y ago
Also note that as of right now, Sweden has half the number of deaths/capita compared to Czechia, and is below the EU average, despite having had the least restrictive policy. This game perpetuates the gigantic fallacy that government intervention is the biggest factor determining spread and outcome, when in reality it's geography, structural differences, and enormous amounts of luck.
- carlmr 5y ago
  I would also say it's cultural. Swedes keep a distance without you telling them, Spaniards do not.
  - disgruntledphd2 5y ago
    The biggest difference between Sweden an Spain is the presence of multi generational households in the latter.
    - carlmr 5y ago
      That's a good point, too.
  - native_samples 5y ago
    Those sorts of explanations are all totally ad-hoc and have no real scientific validity. The English are famously stand-offish yet have worse results than Sweden. Texas and Florida are culturally very similar to other parts of the USA, yet unlocked without experiencing any change in their situation whatsoever and have seen similar results to other US states. You can find counter-examples like that for more or less any posited influential factor on COVID outcomes, except for obesity. Government interventions in particular don't correlate well with anything. The models are all built on the assumptions that they should have a huge impact, but real data tells us differently - the assumptions the models are built on are unsound. IMHO it's really a pity the game authors used this to influence the Czech parliament. These models were never validated against reality before being thrown at policymakers, instead the (sad to call them this) "scientists" simply assumed that because the underlying theories are simple they must therefore also be correct. I've had actual scientists tell me "of course lockdown works, it's basic germ theory" which demonstrates a pretty chaotic confusion between theory and reality, but that sort of attitude can be found everywhere in the academic modelling world.
    - gus_massa 5y ago
      > IMHO it's really a pity the game authors used this to influence the Czech parliament. Remember that politicians are in the tradeoff and bullshit business. They assume every they are told is bullshit, they repackage it and than sell it to us. My guess is if they don't like what the scientist and economist say, they just get another group they like more. It's probably a mix of the advice they get, with the tradeoff they want to make. > "of course lockdown works" Of course they work! The question is how much it affect the transmission ratio and the economic cost, and if people will follow the restrictions. I like that this was call the "Corona Game" and not the "Corona Simulator". Some people noticed that in this game "doing nothing" does not drop the popularity to 0, and I think that it's very unrealistic. Other people noticed that closing the schools has a big effect in the game, but the different parts of the government here in Argentina disagree https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27783454 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27783454
      - native_samples 5y ago
- lm28469 5y ago
  > Sweden has half the number of deaths/capita compared to Czechia > when in reality it's geography, structural differences, Why did you cherry pick Czechia when you have neighbouring countries which are much more comparable in term of climate, culture, geography, density, &c. Finland: 176 deaths per 1m hab Norway: 146 deaths per 1m hab Sweden: 1437 deaths per 1m hab

collyw 5y ago

> with people arguing in public forums that those dying deserved it and that it was worth it. I would be very surprised if anyone actually argued that.

zibzab 5y ago

> I had a doctor outright scold me for wearing a mask to the hospital here This is HIGHLY irregular. Right before the 2020 summer all Swedish hospitals started with corona security measures: you could not enter the hospital before talking to someone (in full protective gear) and at the very least having your temperature measured. If you were allowed inside and masks were available you would be required to wear one. Source: visited hospitals and care centres multiple times with sick family members.