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Yes. The inevitable defeatism that will show up in these comments is "Oh, but China will do it anyway, so there's no point." Which is pretty easily counterab
by bpodgursky 5y ago
Yes. The inevitable defeatism that will show up in these comments is
"Oh, but China will do it anyway, so there's no point."
Which is pretty easily counterable:
1) We don't know if China would cooperate with a ban. We haven't tried. China is very complicated, and if you think you can predict what Xi will do, you are wrong.
2) If AI is truly a global existential and moral crisis, the US _could_ absolutely shut down China's AI research capabilities. There are a few avenues here, some less pleasant than others. Think outside the box.
- erikhoel 5y agoAgreed, these are both good replies to that (which is probably the most common response for some reason)
- killingtime74 5y agoIt’s naïve in the extreme. Also way too late
- erikhoel 5y agoIt's really not, since we don't have anything close to a strong (or "general") AI. GPT-3 is the closest, but even it is just in that direction. So it is quite early. Good time to have the conversation.
- killingtime74 5y agolol never heard of nukes or mutually assured destruction? Can’t even stop Iran or North Korea and you think China can be stopped?
- bpodgursky 5y agoThat's exactly my point. I did, explicitly, say it was unpleasant, and something you should only do in extremis -- when you genuinely believe that extinction a likely alternative. But the US could absolutely glass every semiconductor fab (and datacenter, and research facility) in mainland China using a combination of conventional + atomic kinetic options.
- killingtime74 5y agoI guess we agree then. That would lead to the end of the human race
- bpodgursky 5y agoNo, that's almost certainly incorrect. Here's a decent summary of current research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-war-is-unlikely-to-cause-human-extinction https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-wa... It would be an unthinkable catastrophe, but almost certainly not the end of the human race (and likely not even modern civilization).
- onethought 5y agoTrue, China will be really receptive to a ban! Maybe we could try and get Xi hooked on opiates and then blackmail him to stop! It worked before! What could go wrong!?
- smt88 5y ago> We don't know if China would cooperate with a ban. We haven't tried. China is very complicated, and if you think you can predict what Xi will do, you are wrong. This is astonishingly optimistic (or naive). I'm sure China would happily agree to cease AI development in public and then continue in private. Getting any country to actually stop AI development is as likely as getting them to give up all their nuclear weapons. AI is a weapon, both in military and economic contexts.