4 ms·

Coeur d'Alene, ID is about to go through this same thing. Housing market ramped up values. Landlords are raising rents across the board. There was a recent l

by Ccecil 5y ago

Coeur d'Alene, ID is about to go through this same thing. Housing market ramped up values. Landlords are raising rents across the board. There was a recent local article where one rent was raising from $800/mo to $1400. One of the apartment buildings in town went from $1250/mo to $1400 for a 1bd apartment (had to help move my friend from there) and apparently a large portion of the people in the building are behind on rent. When I went to rent a uhaul the lady said all her trucks have been pretty busy. All of their storage units are full of either people who are moving to town or people who have nowhere to go (her words). The jobs which are unable to be filled local are the ones which were typically taken by the 18-30yr crowd. Even though they are paying considerably over minimum wage now there is still a massive shortage of workers (many restaurants are shutting down 1-2days a week due to lack of staff...particularly back of house staff). McDonalds in town is paying $14/hr now to start...minimum wage is $7.25. My pet theory is that the people who normally filled these jobs condensed their living expenses during covid. Moved back in with parents, moved into multi person dwellings. etc. but also even still they realize there is very little hope. If you make the average rate of pay in town $20/hr you can barely rent...and you need to make 3x that to even be considered for the "average house" in town. From my viewpoint I do not see a solution. Either we have tent cities or everyone who speculated and bought in a bubble without paying any attention to what "rent the town can bear" is going to take a massive loss (50% at least). My personal opinion is that this issue is largely caused by vacation rentals. It isn't that everyone is moving here (we have had that since the 70s) it is that everyone moving here is buying 2 houses and turning what was once affordable rentals into unregulated hotel rooms that cost $6k/mo. Idaho enacted laws in 2017 to prevent any area in the state from blocking vacation rentals in any way. Ketchum, Coeur d'Alene, Boise...are all seeing this issue. The next big crash will come when the large portion of remote workers who moved here are asked to come back to the office. If they refuse they won't be able to find a comparable job anywhere in the area. What was once a "steal" and "so cheap" now becomes way out of their price range once they are required to find local work. Again, I don't have a solution. Just observing from the trenches.

raunak 5y ago
One pretty simple solution seems to be enacting common-sense laws prohibiting turning zoned housing into rental properties - I’m not sure if the state govt. would ever do it though. My other proposal would be to enact laws against buying a home and not living in it, but again, not sure how legal/morally right to prohibit property ownership just like _that_
- Ccecil 5y ago
  Idaho did the opposite in 2017...they created laws preventing any town from blocking vacation rentals in any way. Also, they have non disclosure laws which make the state very nice for real estate investors. I wonder how many people moving here know that the lake was supposed to be a superfund site...or that their nice little cottage was a meth lab just a decade ago.
  - notional 5y ago
    oof does not sound like a place to have a new born https://www.nap.edu/read/11359/chapter/2#6 https://www.nap.edu/read/11359/chapter/2#6
    - Ccecil 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Valley_(Idaho) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Valley_(Idaho) And that is why. Heavy metal contamination...and not to mention the arsenic. 100 years of mining silver did a number on the downstream (Lake Coeur d'Alene).
- alex_g 5y ago
  What about a higher property tax if you are not living on the property for more than x days a year?
  - Ccecil 5y ago
    This is the only solution I think might work. Tax vacation rentals and empty properties at a higher rate...while allowing tax discounts for keeping rent low. Unfortunately, I think the crash will come first
maxfurman 5y ago
Another reason why these jobs (especially restaurant kitchen staff) are hard to fill is that many people who were working them have died from covid. Cooks particularly have had the highest mortality of any job, though I can only guess why.
- Ccecil 5y ago
  Coeur d'Alene didn't seem to have that issue very much. The town never really shut down. What started the lack of workers (based on my observation and discussions with the people in these jobs) was they were getting more on unemployment than they did at their job...and when the unemployment ran out they realized that there was little point...because if they go back to work they still can't afford rent. I have a suspicion a large portion of them are just waiting to be evicted or have already moved in with someone (family, couch surfing, etc). Our death rates here were not high for the age range that takes these jobs...we likely lost more to the opioid crisis than anything. Coeur d'Alene was wide open for operation June 2020...the restaurants had a record year (due to Washington being locked down). I suspect this area will be one of the much studied regions in terms of Covid. Almost no lockdown, very limited mask usage, schools were largely open, as well as a very low vaccination rate in the county. I consider this area as close to a "control group" as you can get.
- nradov 5y ago
  That is not plausible. The COVID-19 fatality rate is low except for elderly people, and very few of them worked as restaurant kitchen staff.
  - maxfurman 5y ago
    Retired people are not included in mortality by job
rconti 5y ago
You used to have to be really rich to own a vacation property. There were vacation rentals, but the system was used a lot less, had a lot more friction, etc. Now, "everyone" can afford a vacation property, but depending on how much money you have, it depends on low interest rates, and as-close-to-full occupancy on AirBnB as possible just to pay the mortgage. It's like when "hey, maybe our household could use a second income" turned into "everyone needs 2 earners to get by". It's inflation. I reached the same conclusion as you about people "condensing expenses". I was puzzling over how the economy is on fire, and yet businesses "aren't able to find workers" (read: workers who will accept what they're offering in pay) on the back of a huge unemployment spike, where you'd expect that previously-unemployed folks would be desperate for a paycheck. Some people point to Covid unemployment assistance, which is going away, but they must have compressed those living expenses in order to afford to demand higher wages.
- jrs235 5y ago
  Perhaps some people who "condensed expenses" also realized that when they get sued for past due rents or house payments any money they save now will likely get ripped away anyways. Might as well wait until after bankruptcy?
- conductr 5y ago
  > they must have compressed those living expenses Or, they simply left while out of work and everyone on the remote work end of the labor pool was taking walks, on zoom meetings, baking banana bread. In texas, I feel like we got an influx of low wager earners from other states because cost and really more open economy. Meanwhile a good portion of our existing low wagers went south.
ranma4703 5y ago
If the issue is second homes, we could greatly increase taxes on residential property past a single home.
bluGill 5y ago
5 years ago in Des Moines McDonald's was starting people at $13/hour, so $14 isn't really out of line for a starting wage. McDonald's has always been the low wage leader just barely able to get enough people to work at the wages they pay. I short, I don't think there is anything abnormal about your claim that they are starting at $14 and unable to find anyone.
- Ccecil 5y ago
  It is out of line for starting wage in the region. And it isn't just that particular chain which is having issues. Construction is also getting hit hard. Most food service in town has now hiring signs...and some places are closing for multiple days a week due to lack of staff. Just an observation. As a business owner I need to keep track of what the people are expecting as pay if I hire them (assuming I can find people to show up). The last 6mos every single business owner I know local is struggling to find people. They are turning away business due to lack of staff.
  - bluGill 5y ago
    When Des Moines is that high, I suspect your area is just catching up, rather than out of line. Des Moines is not a high cost of living city where I would expect wages much higher than any other semi-rural town.
    - Ccecil 5y ago
      There is a reason everyone is moving here.
smsm42 5y ago
Idaho housing boom is insane. They are building thousands of cookie-cutter homes in the Boise area, and they sell well before they are finished, and they sell for prices that would look at home in California about 5 years ago (of course, California got more expensive since). And they have nowhere near enough infrastructure for all those houses (the roads are tiny for the number of people in those houses, for example) and I have no idea how people living on Idaho salaries could afford any of that California-priced housing. I have no idea how it would work - my hope is all taxes from all those housing would be used by the government to upgrade the infrastructure and do something smart with it, but my trust in governments being smart is kinda low... No idea what would happen. I once thought about moving there but I really don't want to end up in the middle of the volcano...
- jrs235 5y ago
  >but my trust in governments being smart is kinda low Particularly in governments run by politicians who agree with and were elected by folks that don't trust governments. Which means [that] government can't be trusted to maintain or upgrade infrastructure because that requires government to collect and spend tax dollars. >my hope is all taxes from all those housing would be used by the government to upgrade the infrastructure and do something smart with it "all taxes from all those houses" is likely not going to be enough to properly upgrade, let alone maintain, the infrastructure. I'm interested to see what those parts of Idaho look like in 5 to 15 years from now.
  - smsm42 5y ago
    Given how many houses there are and how expensive they are, I'd think there's quite a chunk of change coming in - property taxes, sales taxes, permits, etc. - so I think financially it should be enough, but I haven't seen this really being addressed. And building new roads when the existing ones are already choking up would be really tough, they need to do it now before all those new houses are fully occupied. Doesn't look like they realize it, at least from my vantage point (I of course have no inside info, maybe they're working on it day and night...)

by Ccecil 5y ago

raunak 5y ago

One pretty simple solution seems to be enacting common-sense laws prohibiting turning zoned housing into rental properties - I’m not sure if the state govt. would ever do it though. My other proposal would be to enact laws against buying a home and not living in it, but again, not sure how legal/morally right to prohibit property ownership just like _that_

Ccecil 5y ago
Idaho did the opposite in 2017...they created laws preventing any town from blocking vacation rentals in any way. Also, they have non disclosure laws which make the state very nice for real estate investors. I wonder how many people moving here know that the lake was supposed to be a superfund site...or that their nice little cottage was a meth lab just a decade ago.
- notional 5y ago
  oof does not sound like a place to have a new born https://www.nap.edu/read/11359/chapter/2#6 https://www.nap.edu/read/11359/chapter/2#6
  - Ccecil 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Valley_(Idaho) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Valley_(Idaho) And that is why. Heavy metal contamination...and not to mention the arsenic. 100 years of mining silver did a number on the downstream (Lake Coeur d'Alene).
alex_g 5y ago
What about a higher property tax if you are not living on the property for more than x days a year?
- Ccecil 5y ago
  This is the only solution I think might work. Tax vacation rentals and empty properties at a higher rate...while allowing tax discounts for keeping rent low. Unfortunately, I think the crash will come first

maxfurman 5y ago

Another reason why these jobs (especially restaurant kitchen staff) are hard to fill is that many people who were working them have died from covid. Cooks particularly have had the highest mortality of any job, though I can only guess why.

Ccecil 5y ago
Coeur d'Alene didn't seem to have that issue very much. The town never really shut down. What started the lack of workers (based on my observation and discussions with the people in these jobs) was they were getting more on unemployment than they did at their job...and when the unemployment ran out they realized that there was little point...because if they go back to work they still can't afford rent. I have a suspicion a large portion of them are just waiting to be evicted or have already moved in with someone (family, couch surfing, etc). Our death rates here were not high for the age range that takes these jobs...we likely lost more to the opioid crisis than anything. Coeur d'Alene was wide open for operation June 2020...the restaurants had a record year (due to Washington being locked down). I suspect this area will be one of the much studied regions in terms of Covid. Almost no lockdown, very limited mask usage, schools were largely open, as well as a very low vaccination rate in the county. I consider this area as close to a "control group" as you can get.
nradov 5y ago
That is not plausible. The COVID-19 fatality rate is low except for elderly people, and very few of them worked as restaurant kitchen staff.
- maxfurman 5y ago
  Retired people are not included in mortality by job

rconti 5y ago

You used to have to be really rich to own a vacation property. There were vacation rentals, but the system was used a lot less, had a lot more friction, etc. Now, "everyone" can afford a vacation property, but depending on how much money you have, it depends on low interest rates, and as-close-to-full occupancy on AirBnB as possible just to pay the mortgage. It's like when "hey, maybe our household could use a second income" turned into "everyone needs 2 earners to get by". It's inflation. I reached the same conclusion as you about people "condensing expenses". I was puzzling over how the economy is on fire, and yet businesses "aren't able to find workers" (read: workers who will accept what they're offering in pay) on the back of a huge unemployment spike, where you'd expect that previously-unemployed folks would be desperate for a paycheck. Some people point to Covid unemployment assistance, which is going away, but they must have compressed those living expenses in order to afford to demand higher wages.

jrs235 5y ago
Perhaps some people who "condensed expenses" also realized that when they get sued for past due rents or house payments any money they save now will likely get ripped away anyways. Might as well wait until after bankruptcy?
conductr 5y ago
> they must have compressed those living expenses Or, they simply left while out of work and everyone on the remote work end of the labor pool was taking walks, on zoom meetings, baking banana bread. In texas, I feel like we got an influx of low wager earners from other states because cost and really more open economy. Meanwhile a good portion of our existing low wagers went south.

ranma4703 5y ago

If the issue is second homes, we could greatly increase taxes on residential property past a single home.

bluGill 5y ago

5 years ago in Des Moines McDonald's was starting people at $13/hour, so $14 isn't really out of line for a starting wage. McDonald's has always been the low wage leader just barely able to get enough people to work at the wages they pay. I short, I don't think there is anything abnormal about your claim that they are starting at $14 and unable to find anyone.

Ccecil 5y ago
It is out of line for starting wage in the region. And it isn't just that particular chain which is having issues. Construction is also getting hit hard. Most food service in town has now hiring signs...and some places are closing for multiple days a week due to lack of staff. Just an observation. As a business owner I need to keep track of what the people are expecting as pay if I hire them (assuming I can find people to show up). The last 6mos every single business owner I know local is struggling to find people. They are turning away business due to lack of staff.
- bluGill 5y ago
  When Des Moines is that high, I suspect your area is just catching up, rather than out of line. Des Moines is not a high cost of living city where I would expect wages much higher than any other semi-rural town.
  - Ccecil 5y ago
    There is a reason everyone is moving here.

smsm42 5y ago

Idaho housing boom is insane. They are building thousands of cookie-cutter homes in the Boise area, and they sell well before they are finished, and they sell for prices that would look at home in California about 5 years ago (of course, California got more expensive since). And they have nowhere near enough infrastructure for all those houses (the roads are tiny for the number of people in those houses, for example) and I have no idea how people living on Idaho salaries could afford any of that California-priced housing. I have no idea how it would work - my hope is all taxes from all those housing would be used by the government to upgrade the infrastructure and do something smart with it, but my trust in governments being smart is kinda low... No idea what would happen. I once thought about moving there but I really don't want to end up in the middle of the volcano...

jrs235 5y ago
>but my trust in governments being smart is kinda low Particularly in governments run by politicians who agree with and were elected by folks that don't trust governments. Which means [that] government can't be trusted to maintain or upgrade infrastructure because that requires government to collect and spend tax dollars. >my hope is all taxes from all those housing would be used by the government to upgrade the infrastructure and do something smart with it "all taxes from all those houses" is likely not going to be enough to properly upgrade, let alone maintain, the infrastructure. I'm interested to see what those parts of Idaho look like in 5 to 15 years from now.
- smsm42 5y ago
  Given how many houses there are and how expensive they are, I'd think there's quite a chunk of change coming in - property taxes, sales taxes, permits, etc. - so I think financially it should be enough, but I haven't seen this really being addressed. And building new roads when the existing ones are already choking up would be really tough, they need to do it now before all those new houses are fully occupied. Doesn't look like they realize it, at least from my vantage point (I of course have no inside info, maybe they're working on it day and night...)