9 ms·

You should meet my carpenter and plumber and ask them about their nice houses with big yards and new cars.

zozbot234 5y ago
These are skilled trades, it's quite a challenge to compare them with factory work that used to employ a large blue-collar population.
girvo 5y ago
Though for a lot of people those items are acquired via large amounts of debt, and at a much larger multiple of their income than in the past
- duduuegeh 5y ago
  I don't understand this allergy towards debt. Oh no, people had the option to take out a loan to access capital they wanted to invest in themselves. If only we could be like the Europeans instead and waste public money to fund whatever stupid whimsy someone fancied rather than make them responsible for the productivity of their choice.
  - throwaways885 5y ago
    Because children were pressured by society into going to university, on what possibly was false pretences.
  - chillwaves 5y ago
    > whatever stupid whimsy someone fancied strange description for democracy.
- rayiner 5y ago
  Part of that change is artificial. Mortgage interest rates have plummeted, which have caused prices to go up. The real median mortgage payment is about the same over the last 50 years.
  - jbay808 5y ago
    This, unfortunately, also implies an explosion of interest rate risk. Given a fixed monthly payment, I'd much rather be paying it at high rates that have a good chance of dropping, than at low rates that have a good chance at rising. Edit: Thank you, Americans, for your perspective! I understand now that you have fixed rate mortgages there. That's, for better or worse, not the case in Canada!
    - akimball 5y ago
      It would take a very strange thesis indeed to persuade someone to pay a variable rate these days. I doubt that it happens
      - jbay808 5y ago
        Ah, my perspective is coming from Canada where every mortgage is variable rate. ("Fixed rate" mortgages are only locked in for five years). One would think that would cause US real estate to appreciate much faster than Canada when rates are low, but the opposite is the case. Strange days indeed. * In Canada you technically can get a 25 year fixed mortgage, but the interest rate is 8.75%. That's a massive premium and I've never heard of anyone doing that. https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed
      - coffeecat 5y ago
        If you want your monthly payments to be low initially, and you intend to pay off the mortgage debt fully within 5 or 7 years, then a 5/1 or 7/1 ARM can be a good option.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Most homeowners have 30 year fixed rate mortgages. There is no interest rate risk. If rates drop they can even refinance.
    - jefftk 5y ago
      Most Americans I know, including us, have fixed rate mortgages. So there's no risk of rates rising on you.
forz877 5y ago
Median carpenter pay was 50k last year for carpenters. Yours are outliers.
- merpnderp 5y ago
  That may not be a lot of money wherever you live, but a married couple both making close to that are borderline rich where I live. A single person making that is above middle class. Of course a nice house can also be had for $150k. And yeah, my carpenter got his HVAC, electrician, and plumbing licenses in prison and now runs his own business with family members and makes a lot more than I do, but it wasn't by luck or fortune. Anyone could have done what he did (skipping the prison part), if they didn't mind working hard.
  - forz877 5y ago
    That's not a lot of money, period, considering the hours and the inflation due to overtime. Consider too that that is the median - many are making far below that. Most people making money in trades make most of it working more than 40 hours a week, or, like you said, runs his own business (which is completely different. That is no longer a "carpenter" plying his trade.) > Anyone could have done what he did (skipping the prison part), if they didn't mind working hard. This is just not true and stated as fact. There is no evidence of this. We have no idea how capable this man really is. I know lots of dumb tradesmen and lots of brilliant ones. He should be proud of what he's done because it isn't as easy as you say.
raydev 5y ago
Do they own their own businesses or are they employees?
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  Overall that doesn't make much difference. The bottom decile of business owners makes much less and the top decile makes much more. The majority in the middle makes about the same as they would if they were an employee. http://reactionwheel.net/2019/01/schumpeter-on-strategy.html http://reactionwheel.net/2019/01/schumpeter-on-strategy.html
spaetzleesser 5y ago
They are probably business owners. Employed plumbers and carpenters don't make much.
- tren 5y ago
  Maybe in the US. In Australia bricklayers currently charge over $100/h, plumbers are pretty close
  - Consultant32452 5y ago
    When GP said business owners I assume they included independent plumbers. I can call the local plumbing franchise and I will pay $150/hr, but the person who shows up at my door is not making anywhere near that. My friend works for a home security company. They bill $150/hr for labor and he makes $26/hr.
  - sangnoir 5y ago
    Compared to other countries, Australia is an outlier for tradesmen income, by far. The closest comparison I can think of is software engineer income in the US vs everywhere else.
  - riatin 5y ago
    Working in a trade in Australia is lucrative AF, if you're looking for a way to be relatively wealthy only a couple of years out of high school, apprentice as a shipwright, elevator technician or HVAC technician.
conjecTech 5y ago
I saw a lot of people in the trades barely scraping by 5-7 years ago when housing was bottoming out. Housing stock is growing at something like 3x population growth in the US right now. A few more years of that and they may be back in the same situation. Being employed in a heavily cyclical industry definitely has rich years, but it's also got lean ones.
- sjg007 5y ago
  Housing stock is not growing at 3x
  - conjecTech 5y ago
    Housing starts are at ~1.7MM units/year right now, that's enough for about 4.5MM people at current household sizes. US population growth was 1.6M in 2019 and <1MM in 2020. Even with generous estimates on losses of existing housing, I don't think 3x is appreciably off.
    - nine_k 5y ago
      Maybe it has something to do with the fact that more than half of the younger generation are currently living with parents [1]. Not because they necessarily enjoy it, but because they can't afford their own home. Building more housing should lower the effective price of it, and allow many new home buyers or renters to enter the market. [1]: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-...
      - conjecTech 5y ago
        A lot of the construction boom is probably attributable to the new found geographic freedom COVID gave, coupled with the low interest rates from the Fed's monetary policy. There was a sudden mismatch of locale supply and demand. Housing starts were also quite low over much of the last decade, definitely below the equilibration point for 2019-2013. It'll be interesting to see how things play out. I think the shift of older millennials out of cities combined with the relatively smaller generation replacing them will likely cause a reversal of a lot of the urban price growth in the past decade in places like New York. Rents are already reflecting that, but sales prices have more hysteresis.
effingwewt 5y ago
Prima facie this makes no sense. Did you meet up at their respective houses to discuss the work being done on your house? Worked both those trades and you 100% drive a wrapped mobile advert trade van/truck. Neither pays well, especially in the residential field. I call BS.
- hoppyhoppy2 5y ago
  Just to add some facts to the discussion: In the US: Carpenters 2020 Median Pay: $49,520 per year / $23.81 per hour Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 2020 Median Pay: $56,330 per year / $27.08 per hour source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics bls.gov

These are skilled trades, it's quite a challenge to compare them with factory work that used to employ a large blue-collar population.

girvo 5y ago

Though for a lot of people those items are acquired via large amounts of debt, and at a much larger multiple of their income than in the past

duduuegeh 5y ago
I don't understand this allergy towards debt. Oh no, people had the option to take out a loan to access capital they wanted to invest in themselves. If only we could be like the Europeans instead and waste public money to fund whatever stupid whimsy someone fancied rather than make them responsible for the productivity of their choice.
- throwaways885 5y ago
  Because children were pressured by society into going to university, on what possibly was false pretences.
- chillwaves 5y ago
  > whatever stupid whimsy someone fancied strange description for democracy.
rayiner 5y ago
Part of that change is artificial. Mortgage interest rates have plummeted, which have caused prices to go up. The real median mortgage payment is about the same over the last 50 years.
- jbay808 5y ago
  This, unfortunately, also implies an explosion of interest rate risk. Given a fixed monthly payment, I'd much rather be paying it at high rates that have a good chance of dropping, than at low rates that have a good chance at rising. Edit: Thank you, Americans, for your perspective! I understand now that you have fixed rate mortgages there. That's, for better or worse, not the case in Canada!
  - akimball 5y ago
    It would take a very strange thesis indeed to persuade someone to pay a variable rate these days. I doubt that it happens
    - jbay808 5y ago
      Ah, my perspective is coming from Canada where every mortgage is variable rate. ("Fixed rate" mortgages are only locked in for five years). One would think that would cause US real estate to appreciate much faster than Canada when rates are low, but the opposite is the case. Strange days indeed. * In Canada you technically can get a 25 year fixed mortgage, but the interest rate is 8.75%. That's a massive premium and I've never heard of anyone doing that. https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed
    - coffeecat 5y ago
      If you want your monthly payments to be low initially, and you intend to pay off the mortgage debt fully within 5 or 7 years, then a 5/1 or 7/1 ARM can be a good option.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Most homeowners have 30 year fixed rate mortgages. There is no interest rate risk. If rates drop they can even refinance.
  - jefftk 5y ago
    Most Americans I know, including us, have fixed rate mortgages. So there's no risk of rates rising on you.

forz877 5y ago

Median carpenter pay was 50k last year for carpenters. Yours are outliers.

merpnderp 5y ago
That may not be a lot of money wherever you live, but a married couple both making close to that are borderline rich where I live. A single person making that is above middle class. Of course a nice house can also be had for $150k. And yeah, my carpenter got his HVAC, electrician, and plumbing licenses in prison and now runs his own business with family members and makes a lot more than I do, but it wasn't by luck or fortune. Anyone could have done what he did (skipping the prison part), if they didn't mind working hard.
- forz877 5y ago
  That's not a lot of money, period, considering the hours and the inflation due to overtime. Consider too that that is the median - many are making far below that. Most people making money in trades make most of it working more than 40 hours a week, or, like you said, runs his own business (which is completely different. That is no longer a "carpenter" plying his trade.) > Anyone could have done what he did (skipping the prison part), if they didn't mind working hard. This is just not true and stated as fact. There is no evidence of this. We have no idea how capable this man really is. I know lots of dumb tradesmen and lots of brilliant ones. He should be proud of what he's done because it isn't as easy as you say.

raydev 5y ago

Do they own their own businesses or are they employees?

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
Overall that doesn't make much difference. The bottom decile of business owners makes much less and the top decile makes much more. The majority in the middle makes about the same as they would if they were an employee. http://reactionwheel.net/2019/01/schumpeter-on-strategy.html http://reactionwheel.net/2019/01/schumpeter-on-strategy.html

spaetzleesser 5y ago

They are probably business owners. Employed plumbers and carpenters don't make much.

tren 5y ago
Maybe in the US. In Australia bricklayers currently charge over $100/h, plumbers are pretty close
- Consultant32452 5y ago
  When GP said business owners I assume they included independent plumbers. I can call the local plumbing franchise and I will pay $150/hr, but the person who shows up at my door is not making anywhere near that. My friend works for a home security company. They bill $150/hr for labor and he makes $26/hr.
- sangnoir 5y ago
  Compared to other countries, Australia is an outlier for tradesmen income, by far. The closest comparison I can think of is software engineer income in the US vs everywhere else.
- riatin 5y ago
  Working in a trade in Australia is lucrative AF, if you're looking for a way to be relatively wealthy only a couple of years out of high school, apprentice as a shipwright, elevator technician or HVAC technician.

conjecTech 5y ago

I saw a lot of people in the trades barely scraping by 5-7 years ago when housing was bottoming out. Housing stock is growing at something like 3x population growth in the US right now. A few more years of that and they may be back in the same situation. Being employed in a heavily cyclical industry definitely has rich years, but it's also got lean ones.

sjg007 5y ago
Housing stock is not growing at 3x
- conjecTech 5y ago
  Housing starts are at ~1.7MM units/year right now, that's enough for about 4.5MM people at current household sizes. US population growth was 1.6M in 2019 and <1MM in 2020. Even with generous estimates on losses of existing housing, I don't think 3x is appreciably off.
  - nine_k 5y ago
    Maybe it has something to do with the fact that more than half of the younger generation are currently living with parents [1]. Not because they necessarily enjoy it, but because they can't afford their own home. Building more housing should lower the effective price of it, and allow many new home buyers or renters to enter the market. [1]: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-...
    - conjecTech 5y ago
      A lot of the construction boom is probably attributable to the new found geographic freedom COVID gave, coupled with the low interest rates from the Fed's monetary policy. There was a sudden mismatch of locale supply and demand. Housing starts were also quite low over much of the last decade, definitely below the equilibration point for 2019-2013. It'll be interesting to see how things play out. I think the shift of older millennials out of cities combined with the relatively smaller generation replacing them will likely cause a reversal of a lot of the urban price growth in the past decade in places like New York. Rents are already reflecting that, but sales prices have more hysteresis.

effingwewt 5y ago

Prima facie this makes no sense. Did you meet up at their respective houses to discuss the work being done on your house? Worked both those trades and you 100% drive a wrapped mobile advert trade van/truck. Neither pays well, especially in the residential field. I call BS.

hoppyhoppy2 5y ago
Just to add some facts to the discussion: In the US: Carpenters 2020 Median Pay: $49,520 per year / $23.81 per hour Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 2020 Median Pay: $56,330 per year / $27.08 per hour source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics bls.gov