8 ms·

According to the article: Chances to get Myocarditis with mRNA: 20:1.000.000 of which 2/3 cleared in a week. This is the military so mostly younger male who see

According to the article: Chances to get Myocarditis with mRNA: 20:1.000.000 of which 2/3 cleared in a week. This is the military so mostly younger male who seem to be most at risk for this side effect. To provide perspective: Chances to get heart injury from Covid infection 1:100 and 6:10 in severe hospitalized cases.

ostenning 5y ago
Thank you for this
roenxi 5y ago
Chances to get diagnosed with Myocarditis with mRNA 20:1.000.000. The actual incidence is probably a bit higher; I suspect double-digit percentages of the youthful population don't know where their heart is and probably wouldn't report chest pain to a doctor. Note that 95% of the cases being picked up here are in the military, presumably because they have better physical screening or something. The vaccine doesn't know they are in the military.
- MrBuddyCasino 5y ago
  Exactly, I would expect the severity of the side effects to be on a slope, with only the most severe cases being actually detected. Athletes will notice a 10% reduction in heart functionality, the average person won’t. Big question is, how large is the effect really, and are there 2nd order effects?
- noduerme 5y ago
  What are the chances of thinking you have myocarditis after reading alarming stuff on facebook? I had chest pains a couple weeks after my second shot, had an EKG and asked about this. No myocarditis. I had torn a rib. Can you imagine how many people have phantom pains that don't get an EKG, but post to "confirm" they had symptoms? It's bad enough trying to get all these people to just get a goddamn vaccine without scaring them with shit that has basically no chance of happening, has no major long-term consequences if it does happen, and that practically everyone who eats a subway sandwich will have symptoms of.
  - hellbannedguy 5y ago
    I stopped looking up my "medical" symptoms online. Every time I Google something I go to curious to cancer. The internet is not good for hypochondriacs.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      Same, same here. It's going to take the vax-deniers about a decade to get to where they can shrug it off, though. If ever.
    - bserge 5y ago
      You're not doing it right. Despite this meme, online info makes self-diagnosis much easier. The hard part is matching symptoms with your health history and eliminating the improbable/impossible causes/diseases. Which is really hard, even for trained doctors.
      - noduerme 5y ago
        eh, I didn't mention I got nose bleeds from 12-48 hours after the second shot. Never had them before in my life. I did look it up. I didn't like what I saw. But I decided to just ignore that information, take my goddamn vax status and go to a fucking bar. [edit] I'm still here.
  - 0-_-0 5y ago
    Ha, I have a similar story with strage red spots appearing on my back the day after vacciantion. Turns out it was from sitting on a bench.
- heisenbit 5y ago
  That is what makes this study so relevant: US military personal has comparatively good access to doctors so chances for discovery are relatively good. The general population is both older and less male so this study gives a fairly good estimate for a relatively rare side effect which would not have been found nor quantified in a phase-3 trial with 40.000 participants.
lazyjones 5y ago
The article doesn't explicitly make these claims, they are your own interpretations.
otabdeveloper4 5y ago
> Chances to get heart injury from Covid infection 1:100 Not true. At this point over a billion people on Earth had Covid. (And that's a low estimate.) There aren't 10 million people with new heart injuries in 2020.
- gbil 5y ago
  Where do you get this from ? Confirmed cases are in the 200m range, so you assume that the actual number is 5+ times more somehow?
  - bbarnett 5y ago
    Many people are asymptomatic. A 5x number is likely low. The only way to really know, would have been have worldwide, forced testing of every single person, weekly. EG billions of test per week. There were no tests at the start, not enough worldwide testing ability for the first 6 months, and once capacity existed, generally only people who felt sick were tested. And that's in rich nations.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      That's completely false. And don't "rich nations" this, as if your political view makes a point. We know that the asymptomatic rate for covid-19 is about 20% for adults, 40-50% for children, because we actually did massive testing of exposed people. Millions of tests were performed in the US, enough to get the positivity rate in most states down to 3-4%. There were not masses of 5x the positivity rate escaping these tests. And if you think everyone had it before the testing started, you're wrong, because the hospital records would have shown it.
      - textgel 5y ago
        You can't comprehend that richer nations would have better testing and would therefore have a better idea of how many cases they have... And you think hospitals would have records of patients testing positive for a disease we had no knowledge of let alone means of testing before either of those came into place...
noduerme 5y ago
What's lost here is that Myocarditis is a relatively common inflammatory response to both viruses like covid and vaccines like those for covid, smallpox, measles, and other diseases. It's still extremely rare. And it almost always resolves itself. If it doesn't, there are treatments. We've vaccinated 200 million + people in this country for covid, and thus far no one has died from heart inflammation as a result, as far as we know. It would be hard to cover up if young men were turning up in the hospital with heart symptoms at an alarming rate.
- ekianjo 5y ago
  how would you know since OSHA has stopped registering any side effects following the vaccinations? > Are adverse reactions to the COVID-19 vaccine recordable on the OSHA recordkeeping log? > DOL and OSHA, as well as other federal agencies, are working diligently to encourage COVID-19 vaccinations. OSHA does not wish to have any appearance of discouraging workers from receiving COVID-19 vaccination, and also does not wish to disincentivize employers' vaccination efforts. As a result, OSHA will not enforce 29 CFR 1904's recording requirements to require any employers to record worker side effects from COVID-19 vaccination through May 2022. We will reevaluate the agency's position at that time to determine the best course of action moving forward.
  - redis_mlc 5y ago
    Thanks for the info! So much for "we're following the science."
  - stefan_ 5y ago
    Yes, how will we ever know since the workplace safety regulator doesn't do it? Could there be another government agency recording side effect reports?
  - enkid 5y ago
    To make the other comments point more explicitly, OSHA is not the one that determines if a drug has a side effect, the FDA is. So, this means nothing about whether the vaccines are having side effects recorded at a wider scale, OSHA is just not going to track them. OSHA's efforts were probably redundant in the first place. He do see that the FDA is still adding side effects when that data comes in, like for example with myocarditis. [0] [0] https://www.healthline.com/health-news/fda-to-add-warning-on-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-about-rare-heart-related-side-effect https://www.healthline.com/health-news/fda-to-add-warning-on...
inglor_cz 5y ago
I had mild Covid in the second half of December and I still have occassional heart arrhythmias and random muscle twitching out of it - six months later. Both of these have improved over time, but I am now on a heart medication (weakish, Concor) that I wasn't before, to address the arrhythmias. I wonder what the long term damage might be and whether Covid actually took a few years off my life expectancy. I would certainly have preferred getting my shots before contracting Covid.
- konschubert 5y ago
  Somebody close to me is also experiencing random muscle twitching and had an episode of Afib. They had a long-lasting CMV infection a year prior. Is there evidence that viruses can cause arrhythmias and muscle twitching?
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    Covid has a ton of neuromuscular manifestations. https://www.openaccessjournals.com/articles/neurological-and-neuromuscular-manifestations-in-sarscov2-review-of-literature-and-case-series-14256.html https://www.openaccessjournals.com/articles/neurological-and... Interestingly, the cardiologist who took care of me had covid too, and he had muscle twitching lingering afterwards just like me.
  - elric 5y ago
    Muscle twitching (fasciculations) are super common. Stress makes mine worse. So do things like caffeine and lack of sleep. Perhaps they're not a direct effect of covid, but more of the stress that comes with the whole situation?
  - MayeulC 5y ago
    It even looks like one of the most common causes. Look for "viral cardiomyopathy" or similar online. IIRC, inflammatory response from the immune system causes it, so it can happen with vaccines as well. I am not a physician so I won't write conjectures or anything. As a 26 yo, I got vaccinated anyway, here are my reasons if that can help others decide: I think the risks are still low, and I preffer a controlled, well-known (as millions take the same) injection to getting infected with some random pathogen. Moreover, it's not only my personal risk factor that I need to weight against, but the one of every other person I interact with. It's also a bit of duty towards society, and not wanting to actively participate in the epidemic as a viral carrier.
ryanackley 5y ago
Assuming your statistics are accurate, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. You're comparing a risk factor of Covid in the general population to a study done on 20-somethings who are strong and healthy enough to pass basic training. It's a fact that hospitilization and comorbidities go up almost exponentially with age https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...
- wruza 5y ago
  military so mostly younger male who seem to be most at risk for this side effect I think they meant that being a military man usually means a daily heavy load on the heart while strong and healthy. A hundred push-ups after a cross-country run may or may not be worse for ones heart than getting up from a chair too quickly at the age of 70. Also, one of power training rules is to skip days with inflammation. These 0.002% of guys could simply ignore this rule for some reason and face pretty known consequences. So it’s apples-to-oranges, but with a huge offset.
ekianjo 5y ago
Risk is much lower than what you state for COVID since we dont test everyone who is carrying it and has no symptoms whatsoever.
BiteCode_dev 5y ago
Not a fair comparison: there are way more people that are going to be vaccinated than to be contaminated. Also, I assume those stats are for people with symptoms ?
0-_-0 5y ago
The second number should take into account the population and probablility of getting COVID, so it should be: (probablilty of contracting COVID) * (probablity of heart injury in the military from COVID if someone contracts COVID)
tpoacher 5y ago
I think this is missing the point slightly. The vaccine/viral infection -> exercise -> myocarditis link is a well known (to the medical community) link in other vaccines/viruses, including flu. Therefore the "burden of proof" should not be to show that there is a link here too, but to show that there isn't despite it being a common thing in so many other viruses. Therefore, the fact that people are not given advice not to exercise heavily following vaccination, especially in professions where daily heavy exercise is the norm like in the military, is causing unnecessary morbidity. To come and say "yeah but it's still small" is not "putting things in perspective", since this is morbidity that is likely entirely preventable and unnecessary.
oceanplexian 5y ago
One thing I find interesting is if the stated probability is correct, e.g 1:50,000, then the probability of having a heart condition as the result of an mRNA vaccine is statistically much greater than winning any of the Vaccine Lotteries. I wonder if anyone has considered the ethical implications of the gamification of vaccination in light of this, and if governments should be held responsible if someone took the vaccine to win a lottery but instead wound up injured.

ostenning 5y ago

Thank you for this

roenxi 5y ago

Chances to get diagnosed with Myocarditis with mRNA 20:1.000.000. The actual incidence is probably a bit higher; I suspect double-digit percentages of the youthful population don't know where their heart is and probably wouldn't report chest pain to a doctor. Note that 95% of the cases being picked up here are in the military, presumably because they have better physical screening or something. The vaccine doesn't know they are in the military.

MrBuddyCasino 5y ago
Exactly, I would expect the severity of the side effects to be on a slope, with only the most severe cases being actually detected. Athletes will notice a 10% reduction in heart functionality, the average person won’t. Big question is, how large is the effect really, and are there 2nd order effects?
noduerme 5y ago
What are the chances of thinking you have myocarditis after reading alarming stuff on facebook? I had chest pains a couple weeks after my second shot, had an EKG and asked about this. No myocarditis. I had torn a rib. Can you imagine how many people have phantom pains that don't get an EKG, but post to "confirm" they had symptoms? It's bad enough trying to get all these people to just get a goddamn vaccine without scaring them with shit that has basically no chance of happening, has no major long-term consequences if it does happen, and that practically everyone who eats a subway sandwich will have symptoms of.
- hellbannedguy 5y ago
  I stopped looking up my "medical" symptoms online. Every time I Google something I go to curious to cancer. The internet is not good for hypochondriacs.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    Same, same here. It's going to take the vax-deniers about a decade to get to where they can shrug it off, though. If ever.
  - bserge 5y ago
    You're not doing it right. Despite this meme, online info makes self-diagnosis much easier. The hard part is matching symptoms with your health history and eliminating the improbable/impossible causes/diseases. Which is really hard, even for trained doctors.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      eh, I didn't mention I got nose bleeds from 12-48 hours after the second shot. Never had them before in my life. I did look it up. I didn't like what I saw. But I decided to just ignore that information, take my goddamn vax status and go to a fucking bar. [edit] I'm still here.
- 0-_-0 5y ago
  Ha, I have a similar story with strage red spots appearing on my back the day after vacciantion. Turns out it was from sitting on a bench.
heisenbit 5y ago
That is what makes this study so relevant: US military personal has comparatively good access to doctors so chances for discovery are relatively good. The general population is both older and less male so this study gives a fairly good estimate for a relatively rare side effect which would not have been found nor quantified in a phase-3 trial with 40.000 participants.

lazyjones 5y ago

The article doesn't explicitly make these claims, they are your own interpretations.

otabdeveloper4 5y ago

> Chances to get heart injury from Covid infection 1:100 Not true. At this point over a billion people on Earth had Covid. (And that's a low estimate.) There aren't 10 million people with new heart injuries in 2020.

gbil 5y ago
Where do you get this from ? Confirmed cases are in the 200m range, so you assume that the actual number is 5+ times more somehow?
- bbarnett 5y ago
  Many people are asymptomatic. A 5x number is likely low. The only way to really know, would have been have worldwide, forced testing of every single person, weekly. EG billions of test per week. There were no tests at the start, not enough worldwide testing ability for the first 6 months, and once capacity existed, generally only people who felt sick were tested. And that's in rich nations.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    That's completely false. And don't "rich nations" this, as if your political view makes a point. We know that the asymptomatic rate for covid-19 is about 20% for adults, 40-50% for children, because we actually did massive testing of exposed people. Millions of tests were performed in the US, enough to get the positivity rate in most states down to 3-4%. There were not masses of 5x the positivity rate escaping these tests. And if you think everyone had it before the testing started, you're wrong, because the hospital records would have shown it.
    - textgel 5y ago
      You can't comprehend that richer nations would have better testing and would therefore have a better idea of how many cases they have... And you think hospitals would have records of patients testing positive for a disease we had no knowledge of let alone means of testing before either of those came into place...

noduerme 5y ago

What's lost here is that Myocarditis is a relatively common inflammatory response to both viruses like covid and vaccines like those for covid, smallpox, measles, and other diseases. It's still extremely rare. And it almost always resolves itself. If it doesn't, there are treatments. We've vaccinated 200 million + people in this country for covid, and thus far no one has died from heart inflammation as a result, as far as we know. It would be hard to cover up if young men were turning up in the hospital with heart symptoms at an alarming rate.

ekianjo 5y ago
how would you know since OSHA has stopped registering any side effects following the vaccinations? > Are adverse reactions to the COVID-19 vaccine recordable on the OSHA recordkeeping log? > DOL and OSHA, as well as other federal agencies, are working diligently to encourage COVID-19 vaccinations. OSHA does not wish to have any appearance of discouraging workers from receiving COVID-19 vaccination, and also does not wish to disincentivize employers' vaccination efforts. As a result, OSHA will not enforce 29 CFR 1904's recording requirements to require any employers to record worker side effects from COVID-19 vaccination through May 2022. We will reevaluate the agency's position at that time to determine the best course of action moving forward.
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  Thanks for the info! So much for "we're following the science."
- stefan_ 5y ago
  Yes, how will we ever know since the workplace safety regulator doesn't do it? Could there be another government agency recording side effect reports?
- enkid 5y ago
  To make the other comments point more explicitly, OSHA is not the one that determines if a drug has a side effect, the FDA is. So, this means nothing about whether the vaccines are having side effects recorded at a wider scale, OSHA is just not going to track them. OSHA's efforts were probably redundant in the first place. He do see that the FDA is still adding side effects when that data comes in, like for example with myocarditis. [0] [0] https://www.healthline.com/health-news/fda-to-add-warning-on-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-about-rare-heart-related-side-effect https://www.healthline.com/health-news/fda-to-add-warning-on...

inglor_cz 5y ago

I had mild Covid in the second half of December and I still have occassional heart arrhythmias and random muscle twitching out of it - six months later. Both of these have improved over time, but I am now on a heart medication (weakish, Concor) that I wasn't before, to address the arrhythmias. I wonder what the long term damage might be and whether Covid actually took a few years off my life expectancy. I would certainly have preferred getting my shots before contracting Covid.

konschubert 5y ago
Somebody close to me is also experiencing random muscle twitching and had an episode of Afib. They had a long-lasting CMV infection a year prior. Is there evidence that viruses can cause arrhythmias and muscle twitching?
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Covid has a ton of neuromuscular manifestations. https://www.openaccessjournals.com/articles/neurological-and-neuromuscular-manifestations-in-sarscov2-review-of-literature-and-case-series-14256.html https://www.openaccessjournals.com/articles/neurological-and... Interestingly, the cardiologist who took care of me had covid too, and he had muscle twitching lingering afterwards just like me.
- elric 5y ago
  Muscle twitching (fasciculations) are super common. Stress makes mine worse. So do things like caffeine and lack of sleep. Perhaps they're not a direct effect of covid, but more of the stress that comes with the whole situation?
- MayeulC 5y ago
  It even looks like one of the most common causes. Look for "viral cardiomyopathy" or similar online. IIRC, inflammatory response from the immune system causes it, so it can happen with vaccines as well. I am not a physician so I won't write conjectures or anything. As a 26 yo, I got vaccinated anyway, here are my reasons if that can help others decide: I think the risks are still low, and I preffer a controlled, well-known (as millions take the same) injection to getting infected with some random pathogen. Moreover, it's not only my personal risk factor that I need to weight against, but the one of every other person I interact with. It's also a bit of duty towards society, and not wanting to actively participate in the epidemic as a viral carrier.

ryanackley 5y ago

Assuming your statistics are accurate, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. You're comparing a risk factor of Covid in the general population to a study done on 20-somethings who are strong and healthy enough to pass basic training. It's a fact that hospitilization and comorbidities go up almost exponentially with age https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...

wruza 5y ago
military so mostly younger male who seem to be most at risk for this side effect I think they meant that being a military man usually means a daily heavy load on the heart while strong and healthy. A hundred push-ups after a cross-country run may or may not be worse for ones heart than getting up from a chair too quickly at the age of 70. Also, one of power training rules is to skip days with inflammation. These 0.002% of guys could simply ignore this rule for some reason and face pretty known consequences. So it’s apples-to-oranges, but with a huge offset.

ekianjo 5y ago

Risk is much lower than what you state for COVID since we dont test everyone who is carrying it and has no symptoms whatsoever.

BiteCode_dev 5y ago

Not a fair comparison: there are way more people that are going to be vaccinated than to be contaminated. Also, I assume those stats are for people with symptoms ?

0-_-0 5y ago

The second number should take into account the population and probablility of getting COVID, so it should be: (probablilty of contracting COVID) * (probablity of heart injury in the military from COVID if someone contracts COVID)

tpoacher 5y ago

I think this is missing the point slightly. The vaccine/viral infection -> exercise -> myocarditis link is a well known (to the medical community) link in other vaccines/viruses, including flu. Therefore the "burden of proof" should not be to show that there is a link here too, but to show that there isn't despite it being a common thing in so many other viruses. Therefore, the fact that people are not given advice not to exercise heavily following vaccination, especially in professions where daily heavy exercise is the norm like in the military, is causing unnecessary morbidity. To come and say "yeah but it's still small" is not "putting things in perspective", since this is morbidity that is likely entirely preventable and unnecessary.

oceanplexian 5y ago

One thing I find interesting is if the stated probability is correct, e.g 1:50,000, then the probability of having a heart condition as the result of an mRNA vaccine is statistically much greater than winning any of the Vaccine Lotteries. I wonder if anyone has considered the ethical implications of the gamification of vaccination in light of this, and if governments should be held responsible if someone took the vaccine to win a lottery but instead wound up injured.