3 ms·

There are actual virologists who support the lab leak theory, but my guess is that Congress is calling him because he is pushing it as an intentional lab leak.

by api 5y ago

There are actual virologists who support the lab leak theory, but my guess is that Congress is calling him because he is pushing it as an intentional lab leak. There is so far no evidence at all for that, and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Biological warfare is like trying to use a grenade as a handgun. Yes it does hurt your opponent, but... Yes China did seem to contain COVID well, but if it were (hypothetically) a bio-weapon there's no way they could have known ahead of time they'd be this successful or that the virus wouldn't mutate into something far more dangerous. The CCP can be evil but they're not reckless. They prefer a very measured, calculated, incremental approach, not high-risk gambits like releasing a bioweapon. If that backfired it could decimate their population, drag them into WWIII, or both, and none of that would be a win.

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
> There are actual virologists who support the lab leak theory Very few. I don't know of any major virologist who actually says it's more likely, and the overwhelming majority say it's highly unlikely. Right now, everything points to the outbreak being associated with animal markets, just like SARS.
- CMay 5y ago
  Using quantity like this to prop up your reasoning and discounting the contributions of someone outside of a field both weaken the strength of your conclusions, unfortunately.
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    When people who know what they're talking about say one thing, and people who don't know what they're talking about say the opposite, who are you going to listen to? There are very good reasons why virologists think SARS-CoV-2 spilled over naturally. I've discussed some of the reasons elsewhere in this discussion (there's absolutely no evidence the WIV had this virus before the outbreak, and there's pretty good evidence they didn't, dangerous human-animal interactions outside labs are vastly more common than in labs, the first outbreak was centered on a market that housed live animals).

by api 5y ago

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago

> There are actual virologists who support the lab leak theory Very few. I don't know of any major virologist who actually says it's more likely, and the overwhelming majority say it's highly unlikely. Right now, everything points to the outbreak being associated with animal markets, just like SARS.

CMay 5y ago
Using quantity like this to prop up your reasoning and discounting the contributions of someone outside of a field both weaken the strength of your conclusions, unfortunately.
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  When people who know what they're talking about say one thing, and people who don't know what they're talking about say the opposite, who are you going to listen to? There are very good reasons why virologists think SARS-CoV-2 spilled over naturally. I've discussed some of the reasons elsewhere in this discussion (there's absolutely no evidence the WIV had this virus before the outbreak, and there's pretty good evidence they didn't, dangerous human-animal interactions outside labs are vastly more common than in labs, the first outbreak was centered on a market that housed live animals).