3 ms·

"There is a famous story, we don’t know if it’s true, about how in the late summer of 1929, a shoe-shine boy gave Joe Kennedy stock tips, and Kennedy, being a w

"There is a famous story, we don’t know if it’s true, about how in the late summer of 1929, a shoe-shine boy gave Joe Kennedy stock tips, and Kennedy, being a wise old investor, thought, “If shoe shine boys are giving stock tips, then it’s time to get out of the market." Seems like I'm getting a lot of advice about the market from people with less knowledge about the market than shoe shine boys. My mom and my sister are invested in Dogecoin and neither can explain what a cryptocurrency is or even what the doge meme was to begin with. Seems like the next prolonged downturn is right around the corner.

hef19898 5y ago
Well, it was a shoe shine boy on wall street. So, especially back tue day, he should have been quite well informed!
- rfd4sgmk8u 5y ago
  Yes, this apocryphal story sucks. Why wouldn't a shoe shine boy (or an uber driver -- for contemporary equivalence) not have insight from the many conversations he would have with informed people during their day? The casual throw away statement about business made during transit from a passenger might be important info. This story is just elitism, and exactly the argument Wall Street used against RH. "unsophisticated traders". Sorry Mr Banker, the market is made up of people. Claiming unsophistication is a projection of their own insecurities.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    There are two aspects to the story. One, the shoe shine boy probably heard a lot of stuff. Two, he definitely had no business in trading stock. And two is the important one, once "dumb money" shows up in droves it is maybe time to get out.
    - rfd4sgmk8u 5y ago
      If that shoe shine boy (or uber driver) was alive in the mid to late 2010s, they would probably do trading business with RH. And that is why I am bullish on RH.
  - mym1990 5y ago
    Because 2 reasons: 1. Insight is great, but I would hope that there is underlying understanding of the field based on actual study and experience(assuming the shoe shiner is not in finance). 2. The shoe shiner or Uber driver likely has no idea who they are talking to, past the initial impression. I would be open to a conversation about finance with an Uber driver, but I would probably not rush home to put money on it.
danpattn 5y ago
A few months ago I was at a car dealership filing out paperwork on a new car. The sales guy asked me what I did for work. I told him I was in finance. He immediately perked up and asked "Are you into crypto? We all trade it here." Turns out the whole dealership, or at least most of the employees, traded crypto as a hobby. I asked a few questions, mainly about Proof of Work, and the salesman had no idea what that was. He was completely ignorant of how crypto worked. The most common feature of assets bubbles is that they draw in people who would normally never engage in risky financial speculation. People early to the party get rich and that draws in everyone else. Its hard to stay out of the market when your neighbor has short-term gains larger than your salary. In the tulip bubble, everyone was a botanist. In the tech bubble, everyone was an equity trader. In the housing bubble, everyone was flipping houses or getting their real estate license. Now everyone is a crypto trader. Regardless of how useful crypto will be in the future, there is only one way this party ends. Pumping trillions of dollars into the economy can delay the pain, but the pain seems inevitable at this point.

hef19898 5y ago

Well, it was a shoe shine boy on wall street. So, especially back tue day, he should have been quite well informed!

rfd4sgmk8u 5y ago
Yes, this apocryphal story sucks. Why wouldn't a shoe shine boy (or an uber driver -- for contemporary equivalence) not have insight from the many conversations he would have with informed people during their day? The casual throw away statement about business made during transit from a passenger might be important info. This story is just elitism, and exactly the argument Wall Street used against RH. "unsophisticated traders". Sorry Mr Banker, the market is made up of people. Claiming unsophistication is a projection of their own insecurities.
- hef19898 5y ago
  There are two aspects to the story. One, the shoe shine boy probably heard a lot of stuff. Two, he definitely had no business in trading stock. And two is the important one, once "dumb money" shows up in droves it is maybe time to get out.
  - rfd4sgmk8u 5y ago
    If that shoe shine boy (or uber driver) was alive in the mid to late 2010s, they would probably do trading business with RH. And that is why I am bullish on RH.
- mym1990 5y ago
  Because 2 reasons: 1. Insight is great, but I would hope that there is underlying understanding of the field based on actual study and experience(assuming the shoe shiner is not in finance). 2. The shoe shiner or Uber driver likely has no idea who they are talking to, past the initial impression. I would be open to a conversation about finance with an Uber driver, but I would probably not rush home to put money on it.

danpattn 5y ago

A few months ago I was at a car dealership filing out paperwork on a new car. The sales guy asked me what I did for work. I told him I was in finance. He immediately perked up and asked "Are you into crypto? We all trade it here." Turns out the whole dealership, or at least most of the employees, traded crypto as a hobby. I asked a few questions, mainly about Proof of Work, and the salesman had no idea what that was. He was completely ignorant of how crypto worked. The most common feature of assets bubbles is that they draw in people who would normally never engage in risky financial speculation. People early to the party get rich and that draws in everyone else. Its hard to stay out of the market when your neighbor has short-term gains larger than your salary. In the tulip bubble, everyone was a botanist. In the tech bubble, everyone was an equity trader. In the housing bubble, everyone was flipping houses or getting their real estate license. Now everyone is a crypto trader. Regardless of how useful crypto will be in the future, there is only one way this party ends. Pumping trillions of dollars into the economy can delay the pain, but the pain seems inevitable at this point.