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Many traders still predict Bitcoin to be over 100k by the end of the year. December could align with the bubble peak due to Bitcoin‘s investment cycle triggered

Many traders still predict Bitcoin to be over 100k by the end of the year. December could align with the bubble peak due to Bitcoin‘s investment cycle triggered by the halving events. That could wreck his short position but if he’s lucky, it will burst earlier.

factorialboy 5y ago
Halvenings are overrated. Bitcoin historically peaks 1yr after US elections and then finds a bottom and floats there for 3.5 yrs.
- jakelazaroff 5y ago
  Where by “historically” you mean twice?
  - factorialboy 5y ago
    2013. 2017. 2021. Three in three.
    - jkepler 5y ago
      Correlation isn't causation. Bitcoin's network started January 3, 2009, so its halving cycles are roughly correlated with US presidential elections. Bitcoin is also global, and countries like France (home to Ledger and active bitcoin communities) have five-year presidential cycles. So I don't see a causal link to US politics. However, I do think people falling down the bitcoin rabbit hole help them see the state for what it is, which might reduce the importance people place of federal politics, if it increases decentralization and local action.
      - factorialboy 5y ago
        I never said it's the cause. Just making an observation.
    - jakelazaroff 5y ago
      How can you cite 2021? Your hypothesis was a peak after 1 year and then a bottom for 3.5 years, but it’s only been eight months since the 2020 election.
SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
How many people who aren’t invested in it themselves are predicting it to be over 100k? The whole system will continue to work until the money isn’t coming in. I know nothing about investing, but come on, this one is obvious. The only question is when will the money stop coming in?
- anonporridge 5y ago
  The counter question is...will the money ever stop coming in if people start to add bitcoin as a permanent allocation to their portfolio?
shawabawa3 5y ago
They bought puts so their short position can't blow up, they have a fixed maximum loss (that they've already paid)

factorialboy 5y ago

Halvenings are overrated. Bitcoin historically peaks 1yr after US elections and then finds a bottom and floats there for 3.5 yrs.

jakelazaroff 5y ago
Where by “historically” you mean twice?
- factorialboy 5y ago
  2013. 2017. 2021. Three in three.
  - jkepler 5y ago
    Correlation isn't causation. Bitcoin's network started January 3, 2009, so its halving cycles are roughly correlated with US presidential elections. Bitcoin is also global, and countries like France (home to Ledger and active bitcoin communities) have five-year presidential cycles. So I don't see a causal link to US politics. However, I do think people falling down the bitcoin rabbit hole help them see the state for what it is, which might reduce the importance people place of federal politics, if it increases decentralization and local action.
    - factorialboy 5y ago
      I never said it's the cause. Just making an observation.
  - jakelazaroff 5y ago
    How can you cite 2021? Your hypothesis was a peak after 1 year and then a bottom for 3.5 years, but it’s only been eight months since the 2020 election.

SV_BubbleTime 5y ago

How many people who aren’t invested in it themselves are predicting it to be over 100k? The whole system will continue to work until the money isn’t coming in. I know nothing about investing, but come on, this one is obvious. The only question is when will the money stop coming in?

anonporridge 5y ago
The counter question is...will the money ever stop coming in if people start to add bitcoin as a permanent allocation to their portfolio?

shawabawa3 5y ago

They bought puts so their short position can't blow up, they have a fixed maximum loss (that they've already paid)