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Hmmm. Imagine for a moment that someone argued: "this is such a cold winter! See, I told you global warming is a hoax!" That would be laughable. Yet people hav

by hkai 5y ago

Hmmm. Imagine for a moment that someone argued: "this is such a cold winter! See, I told you global warming is a hoax!" That would be laughable. Yet people have no concerns about cherry picking anecdotal evidence when they say "see, it's so hot today, that means global warming".

0x0nyandesu 5y ago
It's not anecdotal to point out that so many places have and continue to have record breaking temps for a record breaking number of days. That's not cherry picking anything.
- uncoder0 5y ago
  It was 96 in 1955 in on June 9th in Seattle.
  - bentcorner 5y ago
    Looking at the last 50 years of data and it's pretty clear Seattle is warming up: https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Decades/USA/WA/Seattle/temperature-average-by-decade-seattle.php https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Decades/USA/WA/Seattl... Whether this is due to climate change, urban development or something else entirely could certainly be explained in more depth, but the trend is there.
    - BB212 5y ago
      That link is better than the headline because it is averaging hundreds of days for each data point. A four day heat wave is not very compelling data on its own.
    - readflaggedcomm 5y ago
      Going back further, you can find 100 degrees in mid July of 1941: https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle/extreme-annual-seattle-high-temperature.php https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle... Though, that was before Sea-Tac was the official weather station: https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/heres-why-seattles-weather-records-are-taken-at-seatac-airport/281-d587a9bd-a4b6-4915-8856-12b8b2e2618f https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/heres-why-s...
  - anyfoo 5y ago
    For years you take the train to work every day, at the same time. But you began to notice, that, recently the train has been late a lot. You begin to wonder whether this is due to some change to the train infrastructure. But behind you someone shouts “the train was 10 minutes late on one day 20 years ago”. Do you dismiss your hypothesis?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - uncoder0 5y ago
      Of course not.
ElViajero 5y ago
> “Heatwaves across the contiguous United States have occurred more often and lasted longer since the 1960s, which is consistent with a warming climate due to climate change.” Climate change is causing this trend. It is not an isolated event. There are expert that study climate. It is a false equivalence to call "cherry picking" the result of many years of study and confirmed trends with what an TV anchor says to appeal to their audience.
carbonguy 5y ago
What part of the evidence in this article do you consider "anecdotal?"
lasfter 5y ago
The phrase "global warming" doesn't appear anywhere in this article. You're moving the goalposts. Both unusually cold winters and hot summers can be attributed to climate change. Things aren't so simple as "the world is supposedly warming so it should always be warm!" The fact is that throughout the world there has been an increase in unprecedented weather patterns. Right now in Argentina they're having record snowfalls, and that is just as concerning as the unheard-of 43C weather today in British Columbia. You're burying your head in the sand.
geenew 5y ago
This is worth a read: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-no... “ Using a climate model, the researchers compared simulations accounting for climate change with scenarios in which human-caused global warming did not exist. They found that the influence of climate change roughly doubled the risk of an individual heat wave. The key to the breakthrough was framing the question in the right way—not asking whether climate change "caused" the event, but how much it might have affected the risk of it occurring at all.”
- outrun86 5y ago
  Tangent: is this a “breakthrough” or standard issue causal inference?
rantwasp 5y ago
anecdotal? Seattle has had 100F+ maybe a few times in the last century. Now we had 3 days in a row of 100F+ with today hitting 110F. It's not even funny. Portland, OR has seen 115F. Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. Yes, this is totally cherry-picking.
- throwawaysea 5y ago
  That is exactly the definition of cherry picking. You’re claiming that one phenomenon is causally linked to a particular event. That evidence is not present in this article or your comment or anywhere else to my knowledge. Three days of high temperatures are all caused by the same single event, a southeasterly flow of air from the Cascades (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures-are-surging-to.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures...) coinciding with other seasonal factors driving high temperatures to create a particular set of extreme conditions. So how are you able to prove that this is exclusively caused by climate change?
  - rantwasp 5y ago
    Here. let me write this again: Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. 10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it. This is not cherry-picking Here. From the national weather service: 284 SXUS76 KSEW 290128 RERSEW RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE 628 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2021 ...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, JUNE AND ALL-TIME AS OF 6 PM... LOCATION TODAY RECORD / YEAR SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 91 2008* OLYMPIA 110 92 2008* QUILLAYUTE 110 92 1995 HOQUIAM 95 86 2008 BELLINGHAM 99 84 1995 NWS SEATTLE 107 89 2000 && LOCATION TODAY JUNE RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 92 24/2017* HOQUIAM 95 103 27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 95 27/2021* NWS SEATTLE 107 101 27/2021 && LOCATION TODAY ALL-TIME RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 6/27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 6/27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 99 8/9/1981 HOQUIAM 95 103 6/27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 96 7/29/2009 NWS SEATTLE 107 105 7/29/2009 * RECORDS SET ON MULTIPLE DATES; LATEST SHOWN
yongjik 5y ago
Your mistake, or shall I say, intentional misreading, is assuming that the existence of global warming is something that needs to be proven in the year 2021. We have already established that AGW is real. Nobody in their right minds are asking "Does this unprecedented heat wave prove the existence of global warming?" They are asking "Now that we know global warming is happening and that we're experiencing an unprecedented heat wave, is it likely that they are linked and we'll likely see more such events in the coming years?"
- refurb 5y ago
  What? The headline literally says “this heatwave is caused by global warming”. That’s the claim that spurious and unproven. And yes, it’s not different than having a cold snap and saying “this cold snap is making people question if global warming is happening”. Both are just cherry picked anecdotes.
  - gdubs 5y ago
    If I dump a bunch of wasps in your house, and I say, “hey, watch out for the wasps”, and then you get stung by some wasps — well, it’s pretty damn obvious what’s happening. Can you prove it? Eventually, maybe. And often times these extreme weather events do get properly studied and officially linked to Climate Change. Years later, after people make the same tired points about how you can’t prove this is linked to climate, yada yada yada.
    - refurb 5y ago
      That’s a terrible analogy. More like “if you were a bee keeper and got bit between 3 and 5 times a day and I introduced a more aggressive bee and you got bit 5 times two days in a row it proves it was due to the more aggressive bee”.
space_fountain 5y ago
I mean you're right, on some level. The heat wave is only evidence for global warming, just as a cold snap would be evidence against, but we can actually look at global average temperatures which have been climbing since we've been able to to track them. Lots of reasons you could argue that is happening and you can argue about why it's happening, but heat waves are one of the things it will lead to
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
blueberry_47 5y ago
Trump wrote on Twitter Thursday, "In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year's Eve on record." He added: "Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!" https://www.foxnews.com/science/trump-says-east-could-use-some-global-warming-this-weekend https://www.foxnews.com/science/trump-says-east-could-use-so... Close enough?

by hkai 5y ago

0x0nyandesu 5y ago

It's not anecdotal to point out that so many places have and continue to have record breaking temps for a record breaking number of days. That's not cherry picking anything.

uncoder0 5y ago
It was 96 in 1955 in on June 9th in Seattle.
- bentcorner 5y ago
  Looking at the last 50 years of data and it's pretty clear Seattle is warming up: https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Decades/USA/WA/Seattle/temperature-average-by-decade-seattle.php https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Decades/USA/WA/Seattl... Whether this is due to climate change, urban development or something else entirely could certainly be explained in more depth, but the trend is there.
  - BB212 5y ago
    That link is better than the headline because it is averaging hundreds of days for each data point. A four day heat wave is not very compelling data on its own.
  - readflaggedcomm 5y ago
    Going back further, you can find 100 degrees in mid July of 1941: https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle/extreme-annual-seattle-high-temperature.php https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle... Though, that was before Sea-Tac was the official weather station: https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/heres-why-seattles-weather-records-are-taken-at-seatac-airport/281-d587a9bd-a4b6-4915-8856-12b8b2e2618f https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/heres-why-s...
- anyfoo 5y ago
  For years you take the train to work every day, at the same time. But you began to notice, that, recently the train has been late a lot. You begin to wonder whether this is due to some change to the train infrastructure. But behind you someone shouts “the train was 10 minutes late on one day 20 years ago”. Do you dismiss your hypothesis?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - uncoder0 5y ago
    Of course not.

ElViajero 5y ago

> “Heatwaves across the contiguous United States have occurred more often and lasted longer since the 1960s, which is consistent with a warming climate due to climate change.” Climate change is causing this trend. It is not an isolated event. There are expert that study climate. It is a false equivalence to call "cherry picking" the result of many years of study and confirmed trends with what an TV anchor says to appeal to their audience.

carbonguy 5y ago

What part of the evidence in this article do you consider "anecdotal?"

lasfter 5y ago

The phrase "global warming" doesn't appear anywhere in this article. You're moving the goalposts. Both unusually cold winters and hot summers can be attributed to climate change. Things aren't so simple as "the world is supposedly warming so it should always be warm!" The fact is that throughout the world there has been an increase in unprecedented weather patterns. Right now in Argentina they're having record snowfalls, and that is just as concerning as the unheard-of 43C weather today in British Columbia. You're burying your head in the sand.

geenew 5y ago

This is worth a read: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-no... “ Using a climate model, the researchers compared simulations accounting for climate change with scenarios in which human-caused global warming did not exist. They found that the influence of climate change roughly doubled the risk of an individual heat wave. The key to the breakthrough was framing the question in the right way—not asking whether climate change "caused" the event, but how much it might have affected the risk of it occurring at all.”

outrun86 5y ago
Tangent: is this a “breakthrough” or standard issue causal inference?

rantwasp 5y ago

anecdotal? Seattle has had 100F+ maybe a few times in the last century. Now we had 3 days in a row of 100F+ with today hitting 110F. It's not even funny. Portland, OR has seen 115F. Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. Yes, this is totally cherry-picking.

throwawaysea 5y ago
That is exactly the definition of cherry picking. You’re claiming that one phenomenon is causally linked to a particular event. That evidence is not present in this article or your comment or anywhere else to my knowledge. Three days of high temperatures are all caused by the same single event, a southeasterly flow of air from the Cascades (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures-are-surging-to.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures...) coinciding with other seasonal factors driving high temperatures to create a particular set of extreme conditions. So how are you able to prove that this is exclusively caused by climate change?
- rantwasp 5y ago
  Here. let me write this again: Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. 10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it. This is not cherry-picking Here. From the national weather service: 284 SXUS76 KSEW 290128 RERSEW RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE 628 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2021 ...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, JUNE AND ALL-TIME AS OF 6 PM... LOCATION TODAY RECORD / YEAR SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 91 2008* OLYMPIA 110 92 2008* QUILLAYUTE 110 92 1995 HOQUIAM 95 86 2008 BELLINGHAM 99 84 1995 NWS SEATTLE 107 89 2000 && LOCATION TODAY JUNE RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 92 24/2017* HOQUIAM 95 103 27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 95 27/2021* NWS SEATTLE 107 101 27/2021 && LOCATION TODAY ALL-TIME RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 6/27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 6/27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 99 8/9/1981 HOQUIAM 95 103 6/27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 96 7/29/2009 NWS SEATTLE 107 105 7/29/2009 * RECORDS SET ON MULTIPLE DATES; LATEST SHOWN

yongjik 5y ago

Your mistake, or shall I say, intentional misreading, is assuming that the existence of global warming is something that needs to be proven in the year 2021. We have already established that AGW is real. Nobody in their right minds are asking "Does this unprecedented heat wave prove the existence of global warming?" They are asking "Now that we know global warming is happening and that we're experiencing an unprecedented heat wave, is it likely that they are linked and we'll likely see more such events in the coming years?"

refurb 5y ago
What? The headline literally says “this heatwave is caused by global warming”. That’s the claim that spurious and unproven. And yes, it’s not different than having a cold snap and saying “this cold snap is making people question if global warming is happening”. Both are just cherry picked anecdotes.
- gdubs 5y ago
  If I dump a bunch of wasps in your house, and I say, “hey, watch out for the wasps”, and then you get stung by some wasps — well, it’s pretty damn obvious what’s happening. Can you prove it? Eventually, maybe. And often times these extreme weather events do get properly studied and officially linked to Climate Change. Years later, after people make the same tired points about how you can’t prove this is linked to climate, yada yada yada.
  - refurb 5y ago
    That’s a terrible analogy. More like “if you were a bee keeper and got bit between 3 and 5 times a day and I introduced a more aggressive bee and you got bit 5 times two days in a row it proves it was due to the more aggressive bee”.

space_fountain 5y ago

I mean you're right, on some level. The heat wave is only evidence for global warming, just as a cold snap would be evidence against, but we can actually look at global average temperatures which have been climbing since we've been able to to track them. Lots of reasons you could argue that is happening and you can argue about why it's happening, but heat waves are one of the things it will lead to

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

blueberry_47 5y ago

Trump wrote on Twitter Thursday, "In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year's Eve on record." He added: "Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!" https://www.foxnews.com/science/trump-says-east-could-use-some-global-warming-this-weekend https://www.foxnews.com/science/trump-says-east-could-use-so... Close enough?