4 ms·
> Currently we list 604 thousand Americans dead from COVID, that’s 0.18% of the entire population - not the infected population. Brazil is at 0.23%, and rising
by AndrewBissell 5y ago
> Currently we list 604 thousand Americans dead from COVID, that’s 0.18% of the entire population - not the infected population. Brazil is at 0.23%, and rising fast. Worldwide it’s almost 4 million out of 181M reported cases. That’s over 2% IFR.
If one were to assume that everyone in these countries was infected and we are just really awful at reporting, that number is still wrong. But the US is currently reporting a hair over 1:10 people as having been infected, and Brazil has not crossed that threshold yet, so 0.15% is already empirically - to use the technical term - horse shit [1].
Your analysis is severely flawed from the fact that you are equating the number of "confirmed cases" with "number of infections," but many infections are never confirmed with a test (and indeed never even become symptomatic).
The article links to a source to support its 0.15% number, but some others are below:
Nature, estimates about 0.5% for USA: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0
World Health Organization, median IFR of 0.27% (0.05% for those under 70): https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
- allturtles 5y agoDid you ignore the GP's first sentence? For 0.15% to be right either the death #s have to be significantly overinflated, or more than 100% of the U.S. population must have been infected with COVID. 0.5 and 0.27 are both larger #s than 0.15, so that supports the GP's point.
- nradov 5y agoThe 0.15% IFR estimate is a worldwide number. There is a significant variance between countries. Unfortunately Americans on average are older, sicker, and fatter so they tend to die more.