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While it is certainly possible it’s military, I’d say it’s not as likely as you would think. Consider: 1. This drone does not fit the description of any known

While it is certainly possible it’s military, I’d say it’s not as likely as you would think. Consider: 1. This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace where they can prevent prying eyes and inadvertent attention. Tucson is not immediately close to any of the usual hotspots for classified aircraft (Area 51 for example). 2. The article describes the drone buzzing the original CBP chopper as well as flying an orbit around the police helicopter. It is reasonable to suggest that a collision between the drone and either of those helicopters would be fatal for the pilot. No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. 3. Classified and unclassified aircraft are not just operated by a dude that hops into a plane or sits down at a drone console. They’re planned out. They’re also not operated in a vacuum. If your scenario of a classified drone operating in this airspace were true, and the drone was picked up by a friendly chopper, the operator would most likely immediately land safely and have someone reach out to the pilots and let them know not to mess with the aircraft. They would certainly not go rogue and risk a major accident or fatality. 4. I consider it highly unlikely the DOD would ever use other agency resources to unwittingly run training Ops. That seems like a career-ending move.

v0x 5y ago
I can't speak for the whole of DOD but there is serious consideration that goes into training flights, with respect to not violating any local laws and especially not fucking with local agencies. It would be unfathomable for this kind of thing to happen in a military training or testing exercise without a serious cascade of errors. Also, I would have to imagine that any supervisor involved would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off."
- LeonB 5y ago
  I think it’s worth looking into a possible involvement of naval pilots, as sometimes even the best of the best write cheques their body can’t cash or buzz the tower without clearance.
  - taejavu 5y ago
    You’re aware Top Gun is fictional, right?
    - NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
      https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navys-probe-into-sky-penis/ https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navy...
- NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
  Or they thought they had a stealthy little bird the locals wouldn't ever see, and got busted. Being full of human beings out military is fallible. >Also, I would have to imagine that any supervisor involved would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off." I would imagine them doing no such thing. Most of the nuclear program wasn't disclosed to anyone until Kodak discovered it on their own. Our military has a host of secrets and everyone in it does their sincere best to keep them, particularly when ordered to. >would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off." If the civilian agencies - or any entity really - doesn't have "need to know", they won't be told a thing. Based on this thing escaping, they don't need to know anything at all.
  - TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
    Do you have hard evidence that the "fallible military" would deliberately confuse and frighten a civilian pilot, or that such incidents are common enough to make this a plausible explanation?
    - NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
      https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navys-probe-into-sky-penis/ https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navy...
  - stevenhuang 5y ago
    > Based on this thing escaping, they don't need to know anything at all Or you're wrong and it's not what you think it is, but seeing all your replies it's clear you're already set on what to believe. I expected better epistemic humility from a username like that.
- asdff 5y ago
  Surely when the Camp Pendleton Ospreys fly within a literal stones throw of my house or just above the beach on their training routes they are violating every reasonable airspace law there is. LAPD police helicopters don't even fly as low as some of these osprey or other obnoxiously loud military helicopter over LA.
Bdkbb 5y ago
> No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario That depends fully on what type of military pilots you know.
- bigiain 5y ago
  “Tower, this is Ghost Rider, requesting a flyby.” “Negative Ghost Rider, the pattern is full.” * WWWWWHHHHhhhoooooosh! * "Goddamn that guy."
jjcon 5y ago
> This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace I think the most likely explanation is somewhere between. Plenty of private companies work on tech that is then sold to the DOD and classified (and they continue to produce for the military), but before it is released it is not technically classified.
notional 5y ago
> The article describes the drone buzzing the original CBP chopper as well as flying an orbit around the police helicopter. It is reasonable to suggest that a collision between the drone and either of those helicopters would be fatal for the pilot. No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. Here's a video of CPB buzzing a crowd in a helicopter kicking up rocks at them. This happened 2 weeks ago. https://twitter.com/i/status/1401952522319843329 https://twitter.com/i/status/1401952522319843329 The idea of idiot pilots doing asshole things to other people is par for the course. No reason why this couldn't be military assholes either.
- groby_b 5y ago
  Because CBP encourages assholes, while the military usually kicks them out (at least if they're assholes to civilians). One of the two values discipline, and it's not CBP.
tw04 5y ago
>No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. While I agree with your general sentiments, I vehemently disagree with that point. I have no doubt there are endless undocumented instances, but here's a pretty major public one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_crash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_cras...
fooker 5y ago
Tucson is very close to the border though.
NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
FWIW I upvoted you for contributing to the conversation but... >1. This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. I wouldn't. And I've held a secret clearance. Not fitting any "known" DoD drone means absolutely nothing. >The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace where they can prevent prying eyes and inadvertent attention. Except for when they aren't. >3. Classified and unclassified aircraft are not just operated by a dude that hops into a plane or sits down at a drone console. They’re planned out. They’re also not operated in a vacuum. If your scenario of a classified drone operating in this airspace were true, and the drone was picked up by a friendly chopper, the operator would most likely immediately land safely and have someone reach out to the pilots and let them know not to mess with the aircraft. You can always spot a layman talking about this when they talk about things as "classified" or "unclassified". Classified what is the relevant question. Confidential? Secret? Top Secret? ??? >4. I consider it highly unlikely the DOD would ever use other agency resources to unwittingly run training Ops. It's a good simulation of what a similarly advanced country might have on hand. The US, China, and Russia routinely conduct "response time" checks by putting a proverbial toe in each other's airspace to test response times and responses in general. The idea that they would never do it with American organizations is presumptuous. Our respective militaries pay close attention it when it happens but aren't particularly alarmed by it because it's not rare.
- carabiner 5y ago
  I suspect your comments on this story will not age well.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- httpsterio 5y ago
  You didn't actually refute any of the points above, you only disagreed without any actual reasoning.
  - 5y ago
baybal2 5y ago
> While it is certainly possible it’s military, I’d say it’s not as likely as you would think. Consider: Whose military? Lots of US military bases in Arizona, certainly spies must be everywhere there.
AlotOfReading 5y ago
Tucson may not be close to any of the major suspects for classified aircraft, but it is close to a major hub for drones. Fort Huachuca and Libby airfield where the US does most of its drone training are less than 60 miles away.
lultimouomo 5y ago
> No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_crash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_cras... 20 dead, pilot destroyed a videotape filmed from the plane during the crash.

v0x 5y ago

I can't speak for the whole of DOD but there is serious consideration that goes into training flights, with respect to not violating any local laws and especially not fucking with local agencies. It would be unfathomable for this kind of thing to happen in a military training or testing exercise without a serious cascade of errors. Also, I would have to imagine that any supervisor involved would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off."

LeonB 5y ago
I think it’s worth looking into a possible involvement of naval pilots, as sometimes even the best of the best write cheques their body can’t cash or buzz the tower without clearance.
- taejavu 5y ago
  You’re aware Top Gun is fictional, right?
  - NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
    https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navys-probe-into-sky-penis/ https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navy...
NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
Or they thought they had a stealthy little bird the locals wouldn't ever see, and got busted. Being full of human beings out military is fallible. >Also, I would have to imagine that any supervisor involved would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off." I would imagine them doing no such thing. Most of the nuclear program wasn't disclosed to anyone until Kodak discovered it on their own. Our military has a host of secrets and everyone in it does their sincere best to keep them, particularly when ordered to. >would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off." If the civilian agencies - or any entity really - doesn't have "need to know", they won't be told a thing. Based on this thing escaping, they don't need to know anything at all.
- TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
  Do you have hard evidence that the "fallible military" would deliberately confuse and frighten a civilian pilot, or that such incidents are common enough to make this a plausible explanation?
  - NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
    https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navys-probe-into-sky-penis/ https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navy...
- stevenhuang 5y ago
  > Based on this thing escaping, they don't need to know anything at all Or you're wrong and it's not what you think it is, but seeing all your replies it's clear you're already set on what to believe. I expected better epistemic humility from a username like that.
asdff 5y ago
Surely when the Camp Pendleton Ospreys fly within a literal stones throw of my house or just above the beach on their training routes they are violating every reasonable airspace law there is. LAPD police helicopters don't even fly as low as some of these osprey or other obnoxiously loud military helicopter over LA.

Bdkbb 5y ago

> No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario That depends fully on what type of military pilots you know.

bigiain 5y ago
“Tower, this is Ghost Rider, requesting a flyby.” “Negative Ghost Rider, the pattern is full.” * WWWWWHHHHhhhoooooosh! * "Goddamn that guy."

jjcon 5y ago

> This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace I think the most likely explanation is somewhere between. Plenty of private companies work on tech that is then sold to the DOD and classified (and they continue to produce for the military), but before it is released it is not technically classified.

notional 5y ago

> The article describes the drone buzzing the original CBP chopper as well as flying an orbit around the police helicopter. It is reasonable to suggest that a collision between the drone and either of those helicopters would be fatal for the pilot. No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. Here's a video of CPB buzzing a crowd in a helicopter kicking up rocks at them. This happened 2 weeks ago. https://twitter.com/i/status/1401952522319843329 https://twitter.com/i/status/1401952522319843329 The idea of idiot pilots doing asshole things to other people is par for the course. No reason why this couldn't be military assholes either.

groby_b 5y ago
Because CBP encourages assholes, while the military usually kicks them out (at least if they're assholes to civilians). One of the two values discipline, and it's not CBP.

tw04 5y ago

>No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. While I agree with your general sentiments, I vehemently disagree with that point. I have no doubt there are endless undocumented instances, but here's a pretty major public one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_crash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_cras...

fooker 5y ago

Tucson is very close to the border though.

NaturalPhallacy 5y ago

FWIW I upvoted you for contributing to the conversation but... >1. This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. I wouldn't. And I've held a secret clearance. Not fitting any "known" DoD drone means absolutely nothing. >The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace where they can prevent prying eyes and inadvertent attention. Except for when they aren't. >3. Classified and unclassified aircraft are not just operated by a dude that hops into a plane or sits down at a drone console. They’re planned out. They’re also not operated in a vacuum. If your scenario of a classified drone operating in this airspace were true, and the drone was picked up by a friendly chopper, the operator would most likely immediately land safely and have someone reach out to the pilots and let them know not to mess with the aircraft. You can always spot a layman talking about this when they talk about things as "classified" or "unclassified". Classified what is the relevant question. Confidential? Secret? Top Secret? ??? >4. I consider it highly unlikely the DOD would ever use other agency resources to unwittingly run training Ops. It's a good simulation of what a similarly advanced country might have on hand. The US, China, and Russia routinely conduct "response time" checks by putting a proverbial toe in each other's airspace to test response times and responses in general. The idea that they would never do it with American organizations is presumptuous. Our respective militaries pay close attention it when it happens but aren't particularly alarmed by it because it's not rare.

carabiner 5y ago
I suspect your comments on this story will not age well.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
httpsterio 5y ago
You didn't actually refute any of the points above, you only disagreed without any actual reasoning.
- 5y ago

baybal2 5y ago

> While it is certainly possible it’s military, I’d say it’s not as likely as you would think. Consider: Whose military? Lots of US military bases in Arizona, certainly spies must be everywhere there.

AlotOfReading 5y ago

Tucson may not be close to any of the major suspects for classified aircraft, but it is close to a major hub for drones. Fort Huachuca and Libby airfield where the US does most of its drone training are less than 60 miles away.

lultimouomo 5y ago

> No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_crash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_cras... 20 dead, pilot destroyed a videotape filmed from the plane during the crash.