7 ms·

Why care about luck? Luck and the family you were born into are two of the big things you can't change. Doesn't matter how much you acknowledge it, it won't ch

Why care about luck? Luck and the family you were born into are two of the big things you can't change. Doesn't matter how much you acknowledge it, it won't change. Putting in the hard (and smart) work and persevering is all you can do. It's a waste of time and energy to worry about Kylie Jenner calling herself a self-made billionaire or whether others are just "luckier" than you. Disclaimer: I am probably a target audience of the article and maybe a bit biased. I was "lucky" many times in my life which allowed me to move from a family income of around $30k growing up, to around $400k solo now.

Inityx 5y ago
You could also, idk, try to improve the system so that luck isn't so heavily weighted.
- nickstinemates 5y ago
  Those who can, do. Those who can't try to change the system to favor them.
  - monoideism 5y ago
    Entirely logical. My only problem with those engaging in such behavior comes from the subset of them who have much more privilege than vast majority of Americans - like say upper middle class and wealthy minorities. They often tilt the system even more in their favor over other poor, struggling Americans of whatever color or creed. Many highly educated, wealthy female Brahmin Indian-Americans (2nd+ gen) are particularly adept at manipulating the system in this way to benefit them as "POCs" who grew up in exclusive neighborhoods with wealthy parents, and end up at Ivies. And yet constantly leverage their "oppression".
  - lisper 5y ago
    Everyone tries to change the system to favor them. Those who succeed try to distract from this by, for example, promulgating catchy aphorisms like the one above.
    - dionidium 5y ago
      I think it's important not to get too cynical about this. It's simply not true that everybody is out there trying to adapt the world to their narrow personal interests. I can think of all kinds of policy issues for which I support a position that is unlikely to benefit me directly.
      - lisper 5y ago
        Sure. There is a form of argument that I call "proof by aphorism" or proof-by-catchy-slogan. One of the best and ultimately most effective examples of this was Johnny Chochran's "if it doesn't fit you must acquit" during the OJ Simpson trial. That argument was more effective because it rhymed despite the fact that this is clearly a logical fallacy. "Those who can do..." is similar. It's catchy, and because it's catchy people are more likely to believe it, particularly those who are fortunate enough to enjoy the survivorship bias of success. But like Cochran's slogan, it is not true. But proof-by-aphorism is hard to counter with actual logic. I mean, look at the argument I am presenting right now. Don't you think it's starting to get a little tedious? Do you not find yourself tempted to tune out? Don't you think a lot of people probably already have? The sad fact of the matter is that the most effective counter to proof-by-aphorism is often another aphorism. If the counter-aphorism is not entirely true, well, that is just part of the point. And the other sad fact of the matter is that many people achieve success not by "doing" but by gaming the system. Not all, but a lot. So I think it's very disingenuous of anyone to get up on a high horse about less successful people trying to similarly tilt the odds in their favor.
  - UncleMeat 5y ago
    And here I am, trying to change the system to favor others despite my wild success in a lucrative industry. Social equity is not just jealousy.
  - Judgmentality 5y ago
    "Everybody wants to change the world, but nobody wants to change themselves."
  - fungiblecog 5y ago
    Not everyone is as selfish as you are
- zeusk 5y ago
  Don't think that'll be doable. Luck plays a huge role, even the birth lottery - not just your parents, but your location. Which country you're born into can largely decide your fate as Immigration has been getting harder by the years.
  - gonzo41 5y ago
    Effective taxes, socialized health and welfare and safer communities. Collective bargaining at work. Those things should level a lot of the big bumps out.
  - ethanbond 5y ago
    Of course it can’t be solved, but it can be improved dramatically. E.g. guaranteed levels of healthcare, education, and shelter.
    - username90 5y ago
      It helps the poor be less poor but it doesn't help the poor become rich. Plenty of countries does those things and the poor still mostly remains poor, albeit with a better standard of living. A reason could be that when poverty hurts like it does in USA it motivates people to work hard to get a better job, while in countries where poverty isn't a big deal people can just choose to live the simple and easy life without much consequences. I know I do it, I live in such a country and choose to live on much less than the least paid workers gets. I don't need more, and the low spending lets me work almost nothing and still get by. I don't feel I lack anything, and neither do any of the poor people I see here. College was free, healthcare is free, entertainment is super cheap with free public parks with sports areas and cheap internet, transportation is cheap with public transit and most stuff you need is within walking distance anyway. If instead I was an American citizen I'd work a lot harder to avoid all the shit that can happen to you when you lack money there. I'd be richer on paper, but in practice I think I'd be worse off.
      - ethanbond 5y ago
        This is really not about getting a particular outcome (which is too subjective/relative to even have a meaningful conversation). This is about the reality and perception that there is some correlation between effort and outcome. You clearly feel that there is a correlation — whether you “utilize” it is your decision to make, as you explain, but you believe it is there. Many Americans dispute the existence of the correlation itself.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  That would require the US becoming more like Europe, in which the right-tail is thinner but the middle is fatter. Americans like the idea that they can join the right-side of the tail even if the odds are low. Germany has lower wages and higher taxes but more stability and security. It's a trade-off.
  - epicureanideal 5y ago
    There are other ways to reduce the influence of luck other than the European safety model. For example, reduce regulation, improve education, enforce anti-trust laws (which I see as a different thing than general regulation that is regressive toward small business), increase access to capital, reduce legal and administrative costs of business, etc. Reduce the influence of crony capitalism.
zelon88 5y ago
It isn't the thought of not being lucky that makes this sting. It is the connotation among the wealthy that people in poverty aren't working hard enough. It creates an environment where the job creators create jobs with nowhere to go, all the while toting this idea that they create huge opportunity for others. When it isn't true, it causes damage.
- BobbyJo 5y ago
  No one is creating jobs with nowhere to go on purpose. Business owners create jobs that fulfill the needs of the business in the most cost effective manner possible. For instance, what growth can a mom and pop restaurant or grocery store offer it's employees? None. Is that because they don't think poor people are working hard enough? Of course not.
  - zelon88 5y ago
    Then offer them training and experience. Give your best worker a fancy title in lieu of a raise to pad their resume. Enabling someone to grow doesn't mean you get to keep them forever. Unless, of course, you truly are giving people jobs in the hopes that they will have nowhere better to go. Which is also extremely common. I recall a woman who owned a hair salon who asked Bernie Sanders about providing health insurance to her workers. Her point was that she is about to grow her business, but if laws are passed that force her to provide insurance for her employees she won't be able to expand. Bernie let her off easy, but if she had asked me I would have told her that her business obviously isn't providing the kind of value to society that it needs to in order to grow larger. What's the point? To enslave more people that you never intend to provide a living wage too? If you go out of businesses maybe a salon will open that can afford to provide a decent wage to the same employees you take for granted.
    - BobbyJo 5y ago
      Training and experience doing what? What fancy title can you give someone who runs a register at your store to pad their resume? Insurance, sure. That's just another part of comp that you can provide. It's not as straight forward as just money, but it's certainly much easier than training employees for jobs you don't offer.
smabie 5y ago
There's of course a ton of luck involved but you won't get struck by lightning by sitting at home. I've tried to increase my "luck" by forcing myself to do things that have an asymmetric payoff: meeting new people, writing blog posts, saying yes to things, etc It's worked pretty well so far!
- MaximumYComb 5y ago
  I increased my luck by making five year goals, thinking about what behaviours I'd need to adopt to reach these goals and then making those activities a priority. I'm incredibly successful by my own metrics now and I'm very happy with how my life is turning out. Doing what you need to do and not what is easy pays huge dividends.
rukuu001 5y ago
You can also partner with a ‘lucky’ person. Combining your grit and smarts with their luck (family money, connections, whatever) may take you both to the next level.
- yupper32 5y ago
  I think you just invented VCs.
Method-X 5y ago
Exactly! Focus on the things you can control in life and forget about the rest.
misterbwong 5y ago
Success is winning the lottery. Hard work gets you more tickets.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  and being cunning allows you to figure out the numbers beforehand or manipulate the drawing
lumost 5y ago
There is an immense societal advantage in the belief that people can do anything if they work hard enough. Without this belief most workers would optimize for minimal effort. If we create a society where forward advancement is impractical eventually people will optimize towards the latter and actively dissuade others from trying to be better. The peasant doesn’t think they’ll become a lord by working harder.
- Analemma_ 5y ago
  Would be nice if the people who got chewed up and spit out by working hard to no effect got to capture a little of that immense advantage.
borroka 5y ago
Because my decision of getting involved in a business or situation in which the outcome (say, we are able to somewhat make a qualitative estimate) is 10% effort and talent and 90% luck would be different if the % are reversed. That's one of the many reasons for reflecting on the odds.
mwfunk 5y ago
Exactly. People can't do anything to ensure success, but they can definitely ensure failure. All anyone can do is the best they can, so that when and if lucky opportunities arise, they can capitalize on those opportunities. Same thing with dating. There are no magic words or social skills to ensure that the person someone likes, will like them back. There are lots of ways to ensure failure, but no way to ensure success. Ultimately we're all at the mercy of other people to a degree, and that's the way it should be because we're all in it together. All we can do is make reasonable efforts to be the best versions of ourselves we can be, and accept that many things are beyond our control but we'll do our best anyway.
weavejester 5y ago
It matters when it comes to voting for policies. If you believe that luck is the predominant factor to becoming rich, then you'd likely support policies that redistribute wealth, and vice versa.
paulpauper 5y ago
> $30k growing up, to around $400k solo now. how about someone who went from $30k to only $40k. Winning the birth lottery to be smart enough to get the lucrative programming or dev job, is also luck.
- yupper32 5y ago
  > Winning the birth lottery to be smart enough to get the lucrative programming or dev job, is also luck. I literally said I was lucky in that same sentence. Come on now...
- b9a2cab5 5y ago
  Programming ability is not a "birth lottery". I'd bet if you looked at the average IQ at a no name company paying $70-80k to junior developers it would be surprisingly close to average. It definitely requires motivation and drive to pursue, much more than many other professions where you tick the knowledge box and just apply it all day. I hate it when people blame the system for everything and deny themselves any personal responsibility for their own futures. There is a balance to be struck and people here jump far too quickly to assign all blame to the system.
  - username90 5y ago
    People with average IQ can't learn algebra properly, I don't think you will find many such programmers. Even the median college student struggles with basic Algebra, the median person doesn't have much chance at all.
    - b9a2cab5 5y ago
      I don't think you can say that. A quick Google shows some random school district in Pittsburgh says pass rates by the end of 9th grade were around 60% [1] and this percentage only went up around 20% for the "Gifted" track students. You also see that Asians started scoring substantially higher than average in later years, which if you believe that all races have the same IQ distribution as I do, must mean that IQ doesn't matter that much for passing algebra. Much more likely is that learning software engineering requires dedication and perseverance over a long period of time. If your code doesn't work or you don't understand the math, you get 0%, not 70% like you would in a history essay or English essay. You can't wing it. The average person doesn't give enough shits about school or learning to achieve any level of mastery. I strongly believe it's a motivational problem. Asian parents force their kids to achieve academic excellence which is why Asians are so overrepresented in software engineering and other STEM fields. [1]: https://www.pghschools.org/Page/5073 https://www.pghschools.org/Page/5073
dotcommand 5y ago
> Putting in the hard (and smart) work and persevering is all you can do. I mostly agree. But if the problem is systematic ( slavery, indentured servitude, etc ), leaving or trying to change the system is probably better than putting in the hard/smart work and persevering. There are other options than just hard work and perseverance depending on the environment/situation.

Inityx 5y ago

You could also, idk, try to improve the system so that luck isn't so heavily weighted.

nickstinemates 5y ago
Those who can, do. Those who can't try to change the system to favor them.
- monoideism 5y ago
  Entirely logical. My only problem with those engaging in such behavior comes from the subset of them who have much more privilege than vast majority of Americans - like say upper middle class and wealthy minorities. They often tilt the system even more in their favor over other poor, struggling Americans of whatever color or creed. Many highly educated, wealthy female Brahmin Indian-Americans (2nd+ gen) are particularly adept at manipulating the system in this way to benefit them as "POCs" who grew up in exclusive neighborhoods with wealthy parents, and end up at Ivies. And yet constantly leverage their "oppression".
- lisper 5y ago
  Everyone tries to change the system to favor them. Those who succeed try to distract from this by, for example, promulgating catchy aphorisms like the one above.
  - dionidium 5y ago
    I think it's important not to get too cynical about this. It's simply not true that everybody is out there trying to adapt the world to their narrow personal interests. I can think of all kinds of policy issues for which I support a position that is unlikely to benefit me directly.
    - lisper 5y ago
      Sure. There is a form of argument that I call "proof by aphorism" or proof-by-catchy-slogan. One of the best and ultimately most effective examples of this was Johnny Chochran's "if it doesn't fit you must acquit" during the OJ Simpson trial. That argument was more effective because it rhymed despite the fact that this is clearly a logical fallacy. "Those who can do..." is similar. It's catchy, and because it's catchy people are more likely to believe it, particularly those who are fortunate enough to enjoy the survivorship bias of success. But like Cochran's slogan, it is not true. But proof-by-aphorism is hard to counter with actual logic. I mean, look at the argument I am presenting right now. Don't you think it's starting to get a little tedious? Do you not find yourself tempted to tune out? Don't you think a lot of people probably already have? The sad fact of the matter is that the most effective counter to proof-by-aphorism is often another aphorism. If the counter-aphorism is not entirely true, well, that is just part of the point. And the other sad fact of the matter is that many people achieve success not by "doing" but by gaming the system. Not all, but a lot. So I think it's very disingenuous of anyone to get up on a high horse about less successful people trying to similarly tilt the odds in their favor.
- UncleMeat 5y ago
  And here I am, trying to change the system to favor others despite my wild success in a lucrative industry. Social equity is not just jealousy.
- Judgmentality 5y ago
  "Everybody wants to change the world, but nobody wants to change themselves."
- fungiblecog 5y ago
  Not everyone is as selfish as you are
zeusk 5y ago
Don't think that'll be doable. Luck plays a huge role, even the birth lottery - not just your parents, but your location. Which country you're born into can largely decide your fate as Immigration has been getting harder by the years.
- gonzo41 5y ago
  Effective taxes, socialized health and welfare and safer communities. Collective bargaining at work. Those things should level a lot of the big bumps out.
- ethanbond 5y ago
  Of course it can’t be solved, but it can be improved dramatically. E.g. guaranteed levels of healthcare, education, and shelter.
  - username90 5y ago
    It helps the poor be less poor but it doesn't help the poor become rich. Plenty of countries does those things and the poor still mostly remains poor, albeit with a better standard of living. A reason could be that when poverty hurts like it does in USA it motivates people to work hard to get a better job, while in countries where poverty isn't a big deal people can just choose to live the simple and easy life without much consequences. I know I do it, I live in such a country and choose to live on much less than the least paid workers gets. I don't need more, and the low spending lets me work almost nothing and still get by. I don't feel I lack anything, and neither do any of the poor people I see here. College was free, healthcare is free, entertainment is super cheap with free public parks with sports areas and cheap internet, transportation is cheap with public transit and most stuff you need is within walking distance anyway. If instead I was an American citizen I'd work a lot harder to avoid all the shit that can happen to you when you lack money there. I'd be richer on paper, but in practice I think I'd be worse off.
    - ethanbond 5y ago
      This is really not about getting a particular outcome (which is too subjective/relative to even have a meaningful conversation). This is about the reality and perception that there is some correlation between effort and outcome. You clearly feel that there is a correlation — whether you “utilize” it is your decision to make, as you explain, but you believe it is there. Many Americans dispute the existence of the correlation itself.
paulpauper 5y ago
That would require the US becoming more like Europe, in which the right-tail is thinner but the middle is fatter. Americans like the idea that they can join the right-side of the tail even if the odds are low. Germany has lower wages and higher taxes but more stability and security. It's a trade-off.
- epicureanideal 5y ago
  There are other ways to reduce the influence of luck other than the European safety model. For example, reduce regulation, improve education, enforce anti-trust laws (which I see as a different thing than general regulation that is regressive toward small business), increase access to capital, reduce legal and administrative costs of business, etc. Reduce the influence of crony capitalism.

zelon88 5y ago

It isn't the thought of not being lucky that makes this sting. It is the connotation among the wealthy that people in poverty aren't working hard enough. It creates an environment where the job creators create jobs with nowhere to go, all the while toting this idea that they create huge opportunity for others. When it isn't true, it causes damage.

BobbyJo 5y ago
No one is creating jobs with nowhere to go on purpose. Business owners create jobs that fulfill the needs of the business in the most cost effective manner possible. For instance, what growth can a mom and pop restaurant or grocery store offer it's employees? None. Is that because they don't think poor people are working hard enough? Of course not.
- zelon88 5y ago
  Then offer them training and experience. Give your best worker a fancy title in lieu of a raise to pad their resume. Enabling someone to grow doesn't mean you get to keep them forever. Unless, of course, you truly are giving people jobs in the hopes that they will have nowhere better to go. Which is also extremely common. I recall a woman who owned a hair salon who asked Bernie Sanders about providing health insurance to her workers. Her point was that she is about to grow her business, but if laws are passed that force her to provide insurance for her employees she won't be able to expand. Bernie let her off easy, but if she had asked me I would have told her that her business obviously isn't providing the kind of value to society that it needs to in order to grow larger. What's the point? To enslave more people that you never intend to provide a living wage too? If you go out of businesses maybe a salon will open that can afford to provide a decent wage to the same employees you take for granted.
  - BobbyJo 5y ago
    Training and experience doing what? What fancy title can you give someone who runs a register at your store to pad their resume? Insurance, sure. That's just another part of comp that you can provide. It's not as straight forward as just money, but it's certainly much easier than training employees for jobs you don't offer.

smabie 5y ago

There's of course a ton of luck involved but you won't get struck by lightning by sitting at home. I've tried to increase my "luck" by forcing myself to do things that have an asymmetric payoff: meeting new people, writing blog posts, saying yes to things, etc It's worked pretty well so far!

MaximumYComb 5y ago
I increased my luck by making five year goals, thinking about what behaviours I'd need to adopt to reach these goals and then making those activities a priority. I'm incredibly successful by my own metrics now and I'm very happy with how my life is turning out. Doing what you need to do and not what is easy pays huge dividends.

rukuu001 5y ago

You can also partner with a ‘lucky’ person. Combining your grit and smarts with their luck (family money, connections, whatever) may take you both to the next level.

yupper32 5y ago
I think you just invented VCs.

Method-X 5y ago

Exactly! Focus on the things you can control in life and forget about the rest.

misterbwong 5y ago

Success is winning the lottery. Hard work gets you more tickets.

paulpauper 5y ago
and being cunning allows you to figure out the numbers beforehand or manipulate the drawing

lumost 5y ago

There is an immense societal advantage in the belief that people can do anything if they work hard enough. Without this belief most workers would optimize for minimal effort. If we create a society where forward advancement is impractical eventually people will optimize towards the latter and actively dissuade others from trying to be better. The peasant doesn’t think they’ll become a lord by working harder.

Analemma_ 5y ago
Would be nice if the people who got chewed up and spit out by working hard to no effect got to capture a little of that immense advantage.

borroka 5y ago

Because my decision of getting involved in a business or situation in which the outcome (say, we are able to somewhat make a qualitative estimate) is 10% effort and talent and 90% luck would be different if the % are reversed. That's one of the many reasons for reflecting on the odds.

mwfunk 5y ago

Exactly. People can't do anything to ensure success, but they can definitely ensure failure. All anyone can do is the best they can, so that when and if lucky opportunities arise, they can capitalize on those opportunities. Same thing with dating. There are no magic words or social skills to ensure that the person someone likes, will like them back. There are lots of ways to ensure failure, but no way to ensure success. Ultimately we're all at the mercy of other people to a degree, and that's the way it should be because we're all in it together. All we can do is make reasonable efforts to be the best versions of ourselves we can be, and accept that many things are beyond our control but we'll do our best anyway.

weavejester 5y ago

It matters when it comes to voting for policies. If you believe that luck is the predominant factor to becoming rich, then you'd likely support policies that redistribute wealth, and vice versa.

paulpauper 5y ago

> $30k growing up, to around $400k solo now. how about someone who went from $30k to only $40k. Winning the birth lottery to be smart enough to get the lucrative programming or dev job, is also luck.

yupper32 5y ago
> Winning the birth lottery to be smart enough to get the lucrative programming or dev job, is also luck. I literally said I was lucky in that same sentence. Come on now...
b9a2cab5 5y ago
Programming ability is not a "birth lottery". I'd bet if you looked at the average IQ at a no name company paying $70-80k to junior developers it would be surprisingly close to average. It definitely requires motivation and drive to pursue, much more than many other professions where you tick the knowledge box and just apply it all day. I hate it when people blame the system for everything and deny themselves any personal responsibility for their own futures. There is a balance to be struck and people here jump far too quickly to assign all blame to the system.
- username90 5y ago
  People with average IQ can't learn algebra properly, I don't think you will find many such programmers. Even the median college student struggles with basic Algebra, the median person doesn't have much chance at all.
  - b9a2cab5 5y ago
    I don't think you can say that. A quick Google shows some random school district in Pittsburgh says pass rates by the end of 9th grade were around 60% [1] and this percentage only went up around 20% for the "Gifted" track students. You also see that Asians started scoring substantially higher than average in later years, which if you believe that all races have the same IQ distribution as I do, must mean that IQ doesn't matter that much for passing algebra. Much more likely is that learning software engineering requires dedication and perseverance over a long period of time. If your code doesn't work or you don't understand the math, you get 0%, not 70% like you would in a history essay or English essay. You can't wing it. The average person doesn't give enough shits about school or learning to achieve any level of mastery. I strongly believe it's a motivational problem. Asian parents force their kids to achieve academic excellence which is why Asians are so overrepresented in software engineering and other STEM fields. [1]: https://www.pghschools.org/Page/5073 https://www.pghschools.org/Page/5073

dotcommand 5y ago

> Putting in the hard (and smart) work and persevering is all you can do. I mostly agree. But if the problem is systematic ( slavery, indentured servitude, etc ), leaving or trying to change the system is probably better than putting in the hard/smart work and persevering. There are other options than just hard work and perseverance depending on the environment/situation.