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The pace of technological change makes predicting a viable but exciting future pretty much impossible. Back in 1960s to 80s the futurism of scifi was lots of co

The pace of technological change makes predicting a viable but exciting future pretty much impossible. Back in 1960s to 80s the futurism of scifi was lots of computers, screens, automation, etc. You could make something look beliveable but far off by applying the cutting edge of tech that people knew about but didn't really have access to and making it look commonplace. Today the cutting edge of tech looks pretty mundane. It's usually software, which doesn't really translate to looking futuristic. If TV show makers go too far it looks like magic and stops being an achievable dream. Essentially, the reason why making high quality "dreams of the future" hopeful TV shows doesn't happen any more is because hardware innovation stopped looking exciting. The brilliant thing is that happened because we actually have the hardware now, and that had taught us to be realistic about the (near term) future.

tomerico 5y ago
The counter argument is that Black Mirror is an insanely popular TV show that shows exactly what technology innovation could bring - but again, from a dystopian perspective.
- mbg721 5y ago
  Another comment on a recent thread pointed out that Black Mirror isn't so much speculating about the future as it is using tech storylines to expose things that make us uncomfortable about the present. The depressing content decades ago was about nuclear war, but now the source of people's anxiety isn't just faraway Soviets; it's pervasive surveillance within their own communities, corrupt politicians selling them out, and the inability to reach the standard of living of their parents.
echelon 5y ago
I could come up with a dozen forward-leaning SF and technology narratives off the cuff, and I bet you can too. In fact, many authors have already done this and continue to publish great speculative fiction. I think the problem -- and I speculate here -- is that the US media machine enjoys the downtrodden narrative. There's limited room at the top, and they're funding what they like. Not always necessarily what sells. I don't think science fiction would fail to sell. I would certainly consume it. You would. Look at Star Wars and other popular science fiction. Dune. The problem is that nobody seems to want to film this stuff at volume. We're in a supply side drought. I blame Hollywood for not funding their dreamers. They'd rather make depressing shit that tells people they can't reach the stars. Today's films are more gritty and human, but they're so stifling and boxed in. (fwiw, I'm personally trying to change this, but it's a tough road ahead. I can't stand the lack of good fantasy and science fiction.)
- pbourke 5y ago
  We do not seem to live in an era that could produce a work of science fiction like Star Trek: The Next Generation in which humanity has mostly solved its major internal problems - racism, scarce resources, political discord, etc. Who would believe something like this nowadays? It increasingly seems like we’re living in the dystopian narrative of Marshall Brain’s “Manna”.
slg 5y ago
Or a different perspective is that people realized technology wouldn't save us from ourselves. We used to dream how technological increases could reduce global suffering and perhaps even create a post-scarcity world in which we all benefit. But growing income inequality has taught us that would never happen. All technology does is act as a multiplier for our existing society. Instead of technology giving us the United Federation of Planets, we got a repeat of the space race with the two superpowers replaced with two billionaires.
- echelon 5y ago
  Or maybe instead of dreaming that one could see the stars, we instead started dreaming we could have super powers? Or that we could be a billionaire that could build a flying armor suit? Super hero movies are everywhere, to an almost absurd level. Why self-insert as a traveler in the stars when you can instead self-insert as the all-powerful center of attention? Makes sense given the rise of social media, too. Everyone is a YouTuber, live steamer, superhero.
  - slg 5y ago
    There is a fundamental difference between scifi and fantasy in that scifi is often achievable. Traveling to see the stars is something we as a society can strive to achieve. People who grow up with that dream never have to give it up and they become the scientists that push society forward in pursuit of that dream. The fantasy of superhero movies isn't possible. So what becomes of the kids who grew up dreaming of being Spider-Man?
    - krapp 5y ago
      >So what becomes of the kids who grew up dreaming of being Spider-Man? Peter Parker is a science nerd. I'd bet plenty of people grew up to pursue science because they were inspired by the comics. Also, the people who "grew up dreaming of being Spider-Man" also grew up watching Star Trek, and Star Wars, and probably reading SF novels, maybe playing D&D, etc. This is literally the demographic that was interested in math, science and computers (back when being interesting in computers was 'weird') in school while the "normies" were playing sports and banging cheerleaders and such.
foobar33333 5y ago
The average person doesn't have any appreciation for how impressive modern technology is. I recently started using google photos and I was blown away by how good the button is that identifies things in a photo. I took a photo of the back side of a LCD PCB and google was able to work out not just that this was a photo of a PCB, it was able to show me product listings for the same PCB when there was essentially nothing but the placement of the black chips and a connector strip to use for identification. I tried to show this off to some people and their responses were "Of course it can do that, they have all that data". XKCD did a thing on it years ago when this was still out of reach for developers https://xkcd.com/1425/ https://xkcd.com/1425/
- ElViajero 5y ago
  I had a similar experience when I searched on Google Photos and realized that it can find text in pictures. I know that the technology exists, but it still surprised me how it has been added to a product so seamlessly. I searched for "wifi" and found many pictures of posters with information to connect to free wifi in museums, offices, hotels.

tomerico 5y ago

The counter argument is that Black Mirror is an insanely popular TV show that shows exactly what technology innovation could bring - but again, from a dystopian perspective.

mbg721 5y ago
Another comment on a recent thread pointed out that Black Mirror isn't so much speculating about the future as it is using tech storylines to expose things that make us uncomfortable about the present. The depressing content decades ago was about nuclear war, but now the source of people's anxiety isn't just faraway Soviets; it's pervasive surveillance within their own communities, corrupt politicians selling them out, and the inability to reach the standard of living of their parents.

echelon 5y ago

I could come up with a dozen forward-leaning SF and technology narratives off the cuff, and I bet you can too. In fact, many authors have already done this and continue to publish great speculative fiction. I think the problem -- and I speculate here -- is that the US media machine enjoys the downtrodden narrative. There's limited room at the top, and they're funding what they like. Not always necessarily what sells. I don't think science fiction would fail to sell. I would certainly consume it. You would. Look at Star Wars and other popular science fiction. Dune. The problem is that nobody seems to want to film this stuff at volume. We're in a supply side drought. I blame Hollywood for not funding their dreamers. They'd rather make depressing shit that tells people they can't reach the stars. Today's films are more gritty and human, but they're so stifling and boxed in. (fwiw, I'm personally trying to change this, but it's a tough road ahead. I can't stand the lack of good fantasy and science fiction.)

pbourke 5y ago
We do not seem to live in an era that could produce a work of science fiction like Star Trek: The Next Generation in which humanity has mostly solved its major internal problems - racism, scarce resources, political discord, etc. Who would believe something like this nowadays? It increasingly seems like we’re living in the dystopian narrative of Marshall Brain’s “Manna”.

slg 5y ago

Or a different perspective is that people realized technology wouldn't save us from ourselves. We used to dream how technological increases could reduce global suffering and perhaps even create a post-scarcity world in which we all benefit. But growing income inequality has taught us that would never happen. All technology does is act as a multiplier for our existing society. Instead of technology giving us the United Federation of Planets, we got a repeat of the space race with the two superpowers replaced with two billionaires.

echelon 5y ago
Or maybe instead of dreaming that one could see the stars, we instead started dreaming we could have super powers? Or that we could be a billionaire that could build a flying armor suit? Super hero movies are everywhere, to an almost absurd level. Why self-insert as a traveler in the stars when you can instead self-insert as the all-powerful center of attention? Makes sense given the rise of social media, too. Everyone is a YouTuber, live steamer, superhero.
- slg 5y ago
  There is a fundamental difference between scifi and fantasy in that scifi is often achievable. Traveling to see the stars is something we as a society can strive to achieve. People who grow up with that dream never have to give it up and they become the scientists that push society forward in pursuit of that dream. The fantasy of superhero movies isn't possible. So what becomes of the kids who grew up dreaming of being Spider-Man?
  - krapp 5y ago
    >So what becomes of the kids who grew up dreaming of being Spider-Man? Peter Parker is a science nerd. I'd bet plenty of people grew up to pursue science because they were inspired by the comics. Also, the people who "grew up dreaming of being Spider-Man" also grew up watching Star Trek, and Star Wars, and probably reading SF novels, maybe playing D&D, etc. This is literally the demographic that was interested in math, science and computers (back when being interesting in computers was 'weird') in school while the "normies" were playing sports and banging cheerleaders and such.

foobar33333 5y ago

The average person doesn't have any appreciation for how impressive modern technology is. I recently started using google photos and I was blown away by how good the button is that identifies things in a photo. I took a photo of the back side of a LCD PCB and google was able to work out not just that this was a photo of a PCB, it was able to show me product listings for the same PCB when there was essentially nothing but the placement of the black chips and a connector strip to use for identification. I tried to show this off to some people and their responses were "Of course it can do that, they have all that data". XKCD did a thing on it years ago when this was still out of reach for developers https://xkcd.com/1425/ https://xkcd.com/1425/

ElViajero 5y ago
I had a similar experience when I searched on Google Photos and realized that it can find text in pictures. I know that the technology exists, but it still surprised me how it has been added to a product so seamlessly. I searched for "wifi" and found many pictures of posters with information to connect to free wifi in museums, offices, hotels.