4 ms·

Time for me to sound crazy. I won't comment on the debunking. I am sure there's a logical explanation but I am not qualified to make decisions using the eviden

by zikzak 5y ago

Time for me to sound crazy. I won't comment on the debunking. I am sure there's a logical explanation but I am not qualified to make decisions using the evidence I have (which is often true of people on both sides of the discussion, here, generally). I terms of "are they here", it isn't totally crazy to imagine an AI that can self replicate it's frame, and use this ability to explore the galaxy. When it finds places of interest or that are particularly useful for replication it might hang around. I'm do not think that is what is going on but it is certainly a possibility. Very remote, of course.

goatse-4-u 5y ago
That's a Von Neumann probe. Good idea, but to my knowledge there aren't any here. The craft being observed (all over the world) are from a breakaway civilization. They were developed within the last century, possibly with the aid of extraterrestrials via an archeological finding or even direct communication, but that's an unknown for me. I do however know the names of most of these craft, and once you know the names there is more detailed information out there including close-up images. They are quite cool, but to my knowledge are entirely terrestrial. The USG may try an alien false flag as a ploy for funding in the near future.
ncallaway 5y ago
> I do not think that is what is going on but it is certainly a possibility. Very remote, of course. I agree and put in Bayesian terms it seems to me that the prior for “aliens are here, and are hiding from us, but are hiding badly” should be non-zero but very low. The kind of evidence we have seen should just our priors upward very slightly, but has too many other (more likely) potential explanations to have a significant impact for me.
- dau 5y ago
  How do you come to the conclusion that they are hiding badly? Assuming they are there and they are in fact hiding, I think they are pretty good at it. Or do you have reliable photo or video evidence that suggests otherwise? :-)
  - boomboomsubban 5y ago
    They don't come to that conclusion. They think the chance that extraterrestrial life could both travel to earth and be rubbish at hiding is very, very low
- sliken 5y ago
  Heh, hiding badly seems rather unlikely. A galaxy spanning race that can cross untold light years is not likely to make easy/simple/stupid mistakes often. However, a self replicating probe might well be monitoring the earth, and watching for various milestones (fire, wheels, radio, spread spectrum, nuclear, fusion, stealth, inter planetary probes, plasma drives, etc). Certainly many things could be monitored passively, but occasional active monitoring might be justified. Things like pestering military vehicles in relatively crowded seas (Off the coast of San Diego) to see what exactly we do when confronted with a unknown vehicle. What sensors do we use? How sophisticated are they? Do we risk the lives of fellow humans opening up on the unknown with multiple weapons?
rowanG077 5y ago
I agree with you. An AI also seems much more likely because it doesn't suffer from the weaknesses of organic(as we know it) life. It takes 100k years to go to that star system? No problem just powerdown with a simple watchdog. Radiation? No problem just replace sensitive parts every x years. I mean if you accept that aliens with this level of advancement exist then it's almost certain they must also have created true AI. Anyway I don't think intelligent aliens have visited us. I think the physics just makes it an improbability even if there is intelligent life in the universe.
gfodor 5y ago
If you presume there are aliens in the galaxy it seems logical to assume we would find a deployed system to cut off risks (external to them) of galaxy-wide destruction or invasion.
Supermancho 5y ago
> it isn't totally crazy to imagine an AI that can self replicate it's frame, and use this ability to explore the galaxy tinfoil hat If your AI is directed enough to replicate itself and "explore the galaxy" for some reason, I think it's safe to say that there would be failures and it would understand the implications of it's technology being adopted (by another intelligence, AI or not).
- zikzak 5y ago
  And either not care, want this to happen, or protect against it. I left a measuring tape outside on the deck but I'm not concerned in the least that an insect might find it and learn how to measure things.

by zikzak 5y ago

goatse-4-u 5y ago

That's a Von Neumann probe. Good idea, but to my knowledge there aren't any here. The craft being observed (all over the world) are from a breakaway civilization. They were developed within the last century, possibly with the aid of extraterrestrials via an archeological finding or even direct communication, but that's an unknown for me. I do however know the names of most of these craft, and once you know the names there is more detailed information out there including close-up images. They are quite cool, but to my knowledge are entirely terrestrial. The USG may try an alien false flag as a ploy for funding in the near future.

ncallaway 5y ago

> I do not think that is what is going on but it is certainly a possibility. Very remote, of course. I agree and put in Bayesian terms it seems to me that the prior for “aliens are here, and are hiding from us, but are hiding badly” should be non-zero but very low. The kind of evidence we have seen should just our priors upward very slightly, but has too many other (more likely) potential explanations to have a significant impact for me.

dau 5y ago
How do you come to the conclusion that they are hiding badly? Assuming they are there and they are in fact hiding, I think they are pretty good at it. Or do you have reliable photo or video evidence that suggests otherwise? :-)
- boomboomsubban 5y ago
  They don't come to that conclusion. They think the chance that extraterrestrial life could both travel to earth and be rubbish at hiding is very, very low
sliken 5y ago
Heh, hiding badly seems rather unlikely. A galaxy spanning race that can cross untold light years is not likely to make easy/simple/stupid mistakes often. However, a self replicating probe might well be monitoring the earth, and watching for various milestones (fire, wheels, radio, spread spectrum, nuclear, fusion, stealth, inter planetary probes, plasma drives, etc). Certainly many things could be monitored passively, but occasional active monitoring might be justified. Things like pestering military vehicles in relatively crowded seas (Off the coast of San Diego) to see what exactly we do when confronted with a unknown vehicle. What sensors do we use? How sophisticated are they? Do we risk the lives of fellow humans opening up on the unknown with multiple weapons?

rowanG077 5y ago

I agree with you. An AI also seems much more likely because it doesn't suffer from the weaknesses of organic(as we know it) life. It takes 100k years to go to that star system? No problem just powerdown with a simple watchdog. Radiation? No problem just replace sensitive parts every x years. I mean if you accept that aliens with this level of advancement exist then it's almost certain they must also have created true AI. Anyway I don't think intelligent aliens have visited us. I think the physics just makes it an improbability even if there is intelligent life in the universe.

gfodor 5y ago

If you presume there are aliens in the galaxy it seems logical to assume we would find a deployed system to cut off risks (external to them) of galaxy-wide destruction or invasion.

Supermancho 5y ago

> it isn't totally crazy to imagine an AI that can self replicate it's frame, and use this ability to explore the galaxy tinfoil hat If your AI is directed enough to replicate itself and "explore the galaxy" for some reason, I think it's safe to say that there would be failures and it would understand the implications of it's technology being adopted (by another intelligence, AI or not).

zikzak 5y ago
And either not care, want this to happen, or protect against it. I left a measuring tape outside on the deck but I'm not concerned in the least that an insect might find it and learn how to measure things.