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It’s basically career suicide to spend any time at all trying to disprove anything in climate science. Who’s gonna fund you? Exxon Mobile? So the climate scien
by Flatcircle 5y ago
It’s basically career suicide to spend any time at all trying to disprove anything in climate science. Who’s gonna fund you? Exxon Mobile?
So the climate scientists have carte blanche to provide data and analysis with little fear of critical pushback.
Prestigious science academies and ad hoc expert committees deliver reports that say (or imply), first, that meaningful trends can be identified, and, second, that the rates and magnitudes of temperature increase observed are ipso facto unusual or dangerous.
“To compare late 20th century warming with earlier geological warm events requires the use of local proxy data, because no global temperature statistics are available prior to the 20th century. One of the best such datasets that extends over an adequate period of time is the oxygen isotope record from the Greenland ice core already referred to (Grootes et al, 1993; Davis and Bohling, 2001). These data show a ~1500 year warming-cooling cycle of 1 - 2°C magnitude. This cyclicity is probably of solar origin (Bond et al, 2001; Singer and Avery, 2006), and the late 20th century warming period represents a peak within it (Figure 10). Consistent with this, Solanki et al (2004) have shown that the activity of the sun has been building since the end of the Little Ice Age in the late 19th century, and that over the last 60 years it has been at its strongest since the early Holocene, c. 8000 ybp. In turn, Svensmark (2007, and other papers) has identified a possible mechanism whereby solar activity affects cosmic ray influx which in turn controls the cloud formation that acts as one of the Earth’s main thermostats.
The Greenland ice core data also reveal typical rates of temperature change of up to 2.5°C/century for periods of cooling and warming of decadal to centennial time span (Figure 11).
In Greenland, then, the late 20th century warming proceeded at unalarming rates to reach a peak that was probably cooler than were the preceding Minoan, Mediaeval and Roman warm periods. And at the other pole, in Antarctica, similar ice core evidence shows that late 20th century temperature was up to 5°C cooler than temperature highs associated with geologically recent interglacial periods (Watanabe et al, 2003). Therefore, the magnitude of the late 20th century warming, and its rate of change, both fall well within known natural limits. In addition, the late 20th century warming that is widely attributed to human greenhouse emissions is of similar rate and magnitude to an earlier natural warming between 1905 and 1940; in relationship to which, it has been shown that the warmest decade of the last 1250 years in the European Alps was the 1940s rather than the 1990s (Buntgen et al, 2006).
The IPCC’s (2001, p 97) prescient diagnosis therefore remains true today:
The fact that the global mean temperature has increased since the late 19th century and that other trends have been observed does not necessarily mean that an anthropogenic effect on the climate system has been identified. Climate has always varied on all time-scales, so the observed change may be natural. A more detailed analysis is required to provide evidence of a human impact. “"
But who’s gonna dispute any of that said analysis? Basically it's the Big Labowski meme, "You're not wrong, you're just a dick," because at the end of the day, being ecologically aware, and trying to minimize human's environmental footprint is still a noble cause and will still effect our grandchildren even if the end result is only cleaner air, cleaner water, and less trash in our communities.
- CJefferson 5y agoI looked up your first reference (Davis and bailing, 2001), someone has taken their graphs (which stopped around 1950), and extended them to the current day (first graph on https://archive.briankoberlein.com/2017/07/15/a-man-for-all-seasons/index.html https://archive.briankoberlein.com/2017/07/15/a-man-for-all-... ). That looks fundamentally different to the previous cycle. The graph looks right to me.
- patcon 5y ago> It’s basically career suicide to spend any time at all trying to disprove anything in climate science. Totally, but in a beautiful way, this actually strikes me as an element of anti-fragility in the bio-cultural system you and I both participate in. It's kinda nice :) Because shit is bad.
- abeppu 5y agoYou initially took issue with the claim about "worst drought in 1,200 years" (in the US), but focused on how we didn't know about temperature that far in the past, and how this kind of claim is irresponsible. I tried to refocus that drought severity isn't obviously about temperature at all (even during cool periods there can be severe droughts). Now you're zooming out to the whole global climate change phenomenon. Is it not possible to talk about droughts in the American west as an independent topic? Reasons why it may be important to discuss and understand: - hydro power is regionally important, and empty reservoirs will create problems there - agriculture is a huge part of the economy - a bunch of people live in areas that will be affected by wildfire smoke ... again These are happening as part of a larger phenomenon of global warming, but even if that weren't the case, severe droughts happen and can be hugely impactful, and it can be both responsible and important to communicate the key understanding that we may experience a drought event that is unlike any since large populations existed in the region, and therefore may meaningfully disrupt life for millions.