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It won't happen. It would be like Russia in Afghanistan. The US would funnel supplies through almost all of their Asian allies in the Pacific as well as deploy

It won't happen. It would be like Russia in Afghanistan. The US would funnel supplies through almost all of their Asian allies in the Pacific as well as deploy a UN peacekeeping force much like in the Yugoslav wars. You can be damn sure that an American politician would use that as rhetoric to bring jobs back. I can assure you republicans would leap for this opportunity. It would be the best PR they could ever get.

ericmay 5y ago
It would be more than that. The U.S. would actively attack Chinese forces attempting to invade Taiwan. There is very little doubt about that.
- MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
  I highly doubt they'd get involved at that scale. You're talking about a major conflict. One in particular the US would not like to get involved in. The US never even did that with Russia. What makes you think the US would protect Taiwan? US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" and hasn't changed. If they got involved it would be an international incident seeing as two major nuclear powers are at war. There would enumerable politicians also hesitant to instigate that conflict. The US sat by while Britain was being invaded in WW2 and needed ridiculous political cozying up to even get troops over to the front in WWI. Why would they stick their necks out for Taiwan?
  - jakeinspace 5y ago
    Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.
  - cycrutchfield 5y ago
    > US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" Is that why there are so many bases and troops in South Korea and Japan? Any invasion of either of those two countries would likely trigger an instant war with the US.
  - ericmay 5y ago
    Because the U.S. of 2021 is a vastly different country on the international stage than it was in 1939, let alone 1916. The U.S. barely had standing armies for either of those wars and a highly no-involvement mindset that came directly from the sentiments of the American population. Flash forward to today. Why do you think the U.S. has ~ a dozen aircraft carriers if not to defend its interests? The U.S. would absolutely go to war with China over Taiwan. For better or worse. Ground troops? Highly unlikely. Air and naval assets? Yea no doubt about that. The U.S. interactions with the Soviet Union are interesting but it’s just not quite the same. Had the Soviet Union attacked, directly, a key U.S. ally then the U.S. might have simply retaliated with nuclear weapons. Not worth the risk. There isn’t a sense that this is how a war with China would progress. A lot has changed. But overall, there won’t be a war unless something catastrophic happens to Chinese leadership (like they get a real Hitler type of figure), because they’re not stupid and the status quo works fine for everyone, despite the rhetoric.
    - dzonga 5y ago
      what was the reason for China to get nukes ? Because at one time, they wanted to take over TW and got threated by nukes by the USA. Now both countries have nukes and large armies. With China having geographic advantage. So yeah, US would likely not come to the defence of TW. It's a fantasy to think the US would defend TW because they're both democracies. US can easily change it's position and say it's an internal matter when shit hits the fan.
      - ericmay 5y ago
        Yet here we are. The U.S. has fleets, airbases, a defense pact with Taiwan, and regularly sells Taiwan weapons. But the U.S. won’t defend Taiwan because China has nukes? Ok how about China won’t attack Taiwan because the U.S. has nukes? And you’re severely oversimplifying the entire interaction. China has geographic advantage to do what exactly? Fly planes to Taiwan? Not with U.S. forces nearby. Land troops? Good luck with that. Bombard the island with ships? Well that’s why the U.S. fleet is there. Fortunately all of this is saber rattling. Nobody not China, Taiwan, or the U.S. cares to change the status quo. The U.S. gets to maintain Taiwan as is. The CCP has a boogeyman they can use. And Taiwan gets to do business with everyone.
bpodgursky 5y ago
Taiwan isn't Afghanistan. It doesn't have a marital culture. It isn't large. It doesn't have especially rugged or inhospitable terrain. It doesn't have religious fundamentalism. It doesn't have a bottom-heavy population pyramid full of young men willing to fight a decades-long insurgency. There's not going to be a Taiwanese insurgency after the deed is done. If China takes control of Taipei, the game is over. We need to help Taiwan before it gets to that point.
- MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
  It's Afghanistan in the sense that it's gonna be an attritional war. It's a mountainous island so that signifies a naval invasion which can be spotted very quickly. They may not be prepared but it's not like they wouldn't have time to mobilize. The PRC has asserted their claim over Taiwan for half a century at this point. The PRC is China and Taiwan has been a part of China for over 100 years. Taiwan is still a government in exile as far as diplomacy is concerned. Why exactly do we need to get involved? You do realize that it's a declaration of war? How many Americans eligible for the draft do you think right now are going to voluntarily sign up for a fight against China? Especially if it's just for the defense of some small nation like Taiwan? Nobody would be pro draft for what would be another Vietnam but instead is an actual fight against China. It's not just a matter of "We should." It's very easy for you to say that when you or your children aren't going to fight the Chinese in a war that we most definitely do not need to be involved in.
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    > The PRC is China and Taiwan has been a part of China for over 100 years. I think this is not factually accurate. In the last 100 years, Taiwan and Mainland China have been controlled by the same government only between 1945-1949. China (Qing Dynasty) controlled Taiwan for ~220 years before losing it to Japan. Japan ruled Taiwan for ~50 years. RoC ruled both Taiwan and the mainland for ~5 years before losing the mainland in the revolution. (Edit: RoC has not ruled the mainland for ~60 years, which is almost twice as it ruled the mainland.) I think you are correct that no draft would be instituted. We have plenty of military assests that certain people would love to justify the maintenance of so there would absolutely some fighting by US personel on behalf od Taiwan, regardless of how smart or winnable that war would be.
nairboon 5y ago
There will never be a UN peacekeeping mission in Taiwan because China will veto it.

ericmay 5y ago

It would be more than that. The U.S. would actively attack Chinese forces attempting to invade Taiwan. There is very little doubt about that.

MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
I highly doubt they'd get involved at that scale. You're talking about a major conflict. One in particular the US would not like to get involved in. The US never even did that with Russia. What makes you think the US would protect Taiwan? US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" and hasn't changed. If they got involved it would be an international incident seeing as two major nuclear powers are at war. There would enumerable politicians also hesitant to instigate that conflict. The US sat by while Britain was being invaded in WW2 and needed ridiculous political cozying up to even get troops over to the front in WWI. Why would they stick their necks out for Taiwan?
- jakeinspace 5y ago
  Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.
- cycrutchfield 5y ago
  > US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" Is that why there are so many bases and troops in South Korea and Japan? Any invasion of either of those two countries would likely trigger an instant war with the US.
- ericmay 5y ago
  Because the U.S. of 2021 is a vastly different country on the international stage than it was in 1939, let alone 1916. The U.S. barely had standing armies for either of those wars and a highly no-involvement mindset that came directly from the sentiments of the American population. Flash forward to today. Why do you think the U.S. has ~ a dozen aircraft carriers if not to defend its interests? The U.S. would absolutely go to war with China over Taiwan. For better or worse. Ground troops? Highly unlikely. Air and naval assets? Yea no doubt about that. The U.S. interactions with the Soviet Union are interesting but it’s just not quite the same. Had the Soviet Union attacked, directly, a key U.S. ally then the U.S. might have simply retaliated with nuclear weapons. Not worth the risk. There isn’t a sense that this is how a war with China would progress. A lot has changed. But overall, there won’t be a war unless something catastrophic happens to Chinese leadership (like they get a real Hitler type of figure), because they’re not stupid and the status quo works fine for everyone, despite the rhetoric.
  - dzonga 5y ago
    what was the reason for China to get nukes ? Because at one time, they wanted to take over TW and got threated by nukes by the USA. Now both countries have nukes and large armies. With China having geographic advantage. So yeah, US would likely not come to the defence of TW. It's a fantasy to think the US would defend TW because they're both democracies. US can easily change it's position and say it's an internal matter when shit hits the fan.
    - ericmay 5y ago
      Yet here we are. The U.S. has fleets, airbases, a defense pact with Taiwan, and regularly sells Taiwan weapons. But the U.S. won’t defend Taiwan because China has nukes? Ok how about China won’t attack Taiwan because the U.S. has nukes? And you’re severely oversimplifying the entire interaction. China has geographic advantage to do what exactly? Fly planes to Taiwan? Not with U.S. forces nearby. Land troops? Good luck with that. Bombard the island with ships? Well that’s why the U.S. fleet is there. Fortunately all of this is saber rattling. Nobody not China, Taiwan, or the U.S. cares to change the status quo. The U.S. gets to maintain Taiwan as is. The CCP has a boogeyman they can use. And Taiwan gets to do business with everyone.

bpodgursky 5y ago

Taiwan isn't Afghanistan. It doesn't have a marital culture. It isn't large. It doesn't have especially rugged or inhospitable terrain. It doesn't have religious fundamentalism. It doesn't have a bottom-heavy population pyramid full of young men willing to fight a decades-long insurgency. There's not going to be a Taiwanese insurgency after the deed is done. If China takes control of Taipei, the game is over. We need to help Taiwan before it gets to that point.

MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
It's Afghanistan in the sense that it's gonna be an attritional war. It's a mountainous island so that signifies a naval invasion which can be spotted very quickly. They may not be prepared but it's not like they wouldn't have time to mobilize. The PRC has asserted their claim over Taiwan for half a century at this point. The PRC is China and Taiwan has been a part of China for over 100 years. Taiwan is still a government in exile as far as diplomacy is concerned. Why exactly do we need to get involved? You do realize that it's a declaration of war? How many Americans eligible for the draft do you think right now are going to voluntarily sign up for a fight against China? Especially if it's just for the defense of some small nation like Taiwan? Nobody would be pro draft for what would be another Vietnam but instead is an actual fight against China. It's not just a matter of "We should." It's very easy for you to say that when you or your children aren't going to fight the Chinese in a war that we most definitely do not need to be involved in.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  > The PRC is China and Taiwan has been a part of China for over 100 years. I think this is not factually accurate. In the last 100 years, Taiwan and Mainland China have been controlled by the same government only between 1945-1949. China (Qing Dynasty) controlled Taiwan for ~220 years before losing it to Japan. Japan ruled Taiwan for ~50 years. RoC ruled both Taiwan and the mainland for ~5 years before losing the mainland in the revolution. (Edit: RoC has not ruled the mainland for ~60 years, which is almost twice as it ruled the mainland.) I think you are correct that no draft would be instituted. We have plenty of military assests that certain people would love to justify the maintenance of so there would absolutely some fighting by US personel on behalf od Taiwan, regardless of how smart or winnable that war would be.

nairboon 5y ago

There will never be a UN peacekeeping mission in Taiwan because China will veto it.